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Khan SF, Naeem UA. Future climate projections using the LARS-WG6 downscaling model over Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:810. [PMID: 37284969 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11419-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
This study investigates the projections of precipitation and temperature at the local scale in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in Pakistan using six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from CORDEX under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). For twenty-four stations spread across the study area, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator, version six (LARS-WG6), was used to downscale the daily data from the six different RCMs for maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation (pr) at a spatial resolution of 0.44°. Investigations were made to predict changes in mean annual values of Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation during two future periods, i.e., the mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). The model results from statistical and graphical comparison validated that the LARS-WG6 can simulate the temperature and the precipitation in the UIB. Each of the six RCMs and their ensemble revealed a continuously increased temperature projection in the basin; nevertheless, there is variation in projected magnitude across RCMs and between RCPs. The rise in average Tmax and Tmin was more significant under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5, possibly due to unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The precipitation projections follow the non-uniform trend, i.e., not all RCMs agree on whether the precipitation will increase or decrease in the basin, and no orderly variations were detected during any future periods under any RCP. However, an overall increase in precipitation is projected by the ensemble of RCMs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Summera Fahmi Khan
- University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan.
- COMSATS University Islamabad, Wah Campus, Wah Cantt, Pakistan.
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Kline A, Dean K, Kossik AL, Harrison JC, Januch JD, Beck NK, Zhou NA, Shirai JH, Boyle DS, Mitchell J, Meschke JS. Persistence of poliovirus types 2 and 3 in waste-impacted water and sediment. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262761. [PMID: 35081146 PMCID: PMC8791527 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2021] [Accepted: 01/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Eradication of poliovirus (PV) is a global public health priority, and as clinical cases decrease, the role of environmental surveillance becomes more important. Persistence of PV and the environmental factors that influence it (such as temperature and sample type) are an important part of understanding and interpreting positive environmental surveillance samples. The objective of this study was to evaluate the persistence of poliovirus type 2 (PV2) and type 3 (PV3) in wastewater and sediment. Microcosms containing either 1) influent wastewater or 2) influent wastewater with a sediment matrix were seeded with either PV2 or PV3, and stored for up to 126 days at three temperatures (4°C, room temperature [RT], and 30°C). Active PV in the liquid of (1), and the sediment and liquid portions of (2) were sampled and quantified at up to 10 time points via plaque assay and RT-qPCR. A suite of 17 models were tested for best fit to characterize decay of PV2 and PV3 over time and determine the time points at which >90% (T90) and >99% (T99) reduction was reached. Linear models assessed the influence of experimental factors (matrix, temperature, virus type and method of detection) on the predicted T90 and T99 values. Results showed that when T90 was the dependent variable, virus type, matrix, and temperature significantly affected decay, and there was a clear interaction between the sediment matrix and temperature. When T99 was the dependent variable, only temperature and matrix type significantly influenced the decay metric. This study characterizes the persistence of both active and molecular PV2 and PV3 in relevant environmental conditions, and demonstrates that temperature and sediment both play important roles in PV viability. As eradication nears and clinical cases decrease, environmental surveillance and knowledge of PV persistence will play a key role in understanding the silent circulation in endemic countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allison Kline
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Kara Dean
- Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Alexandra L. Kossik
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Joanna Ciol Harrison
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - James D. Januch
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Nicola K. Beck
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Nicolette A. Zhou
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Jeffry H. Shirai
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | | | - Jade Mitchell
- Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, United States of America
| | - John Scott Meschke
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
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