Temporal Analysis of Urban-Suburban PET, mPET and UTCI Indices in Belgrade (Serbia)

Intensification of thermal risk in a changing climate: findings from prominent tourism destinations along the eastern Adriatic coast

The climate and thermal comfort of а destination greatly influence the tourism industry. Therefore, this study was focused on researching thermal comfort changes and their impacts on visitors in four highly visited coastal destinations along the eastern Adriatic coast (Pula, Zadar, Split, and Dubrovnik) from 1996 to 2020, using the modified physiologically equivalent temperature index (mPET). The specific objective was to assess how the thermal comfort conditions are distributed spatially and temporally and how they are suitable for beach and sightseeing tourism. Results showed that monthly mean mPET values have increased, except in May. In the summer season, tourists were often exposed to uncomfortable heat stress, especially in the middle of the day. Strong and extreme heat stress frequency significantly increased in all sites except in Pula, particularly in July and August. Prevailing neutral and slightly warm/cold conditions were concentrated in two periods, between April and June and in September and October. The maximum occurrence of optimal climatic conditions for enjoying the beach was in the summer, with a decreasing tendency from May to August. The occurrence of favorable conditions for sightseeing significantly increased in April and November while it decreased from July to September. Although the eastern Adriatic coast is primarily a summer tourist area, a relatively small number of tourists take advantage of the period with optimal thermal comfort. Despite the fact that the number of tourists in the shoulder seasons has increased significantly in the past 25 years, the increasing favorable thermal comfort in the changing climate conditions will make these seasons even more appealing in the future, especially for sightseeing activities. New strategies for adapting to a changing climate are therefore needed.

Maternal exposure to ambient air temperature and adverse birth outcomes: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Multiple systematic reviews on prenatal ambient temperature and adverse birth outcomes exist, but the overall epidemiological evidence and the appropriate metric for thermal stress remain unclear. An umbrella review was performed to summarise and appraise the evidence with recommendations.

METHODS

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the associations between ambient temperature and adverse birth outcomes (preterm birth, stillbirth, birth weight, low birth weight, and small for gestational age) up to December 20, 2023, were synthesised according to a published protocol. Databases PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, MEDLINE/Ovid, EMBASE/Ovid, Web of Science Core Collection, systematic reviews repositories, electronic grey literature, and references were searched. Risk of bias was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute's critical appraisal tool.

RESULTS

Eleven systematic reviews, including two meta-analyses, were included. This comprised 90 distinct observational studies that employed multiple temperature assessment metrics with a very high overlap of primary studies. Primary studies were mostly from the United States while both Africa and South Asia contributed only three studies. A majority (7 out of 11) of the systematic reviews were rated as moderate risk of bias. All systematic reviews indicated that maternal exposures to both extremely high and low temperatures, particularly during late gestation are associated with increased risks of preterm birth, stillbirth, and reduced fetal growth. However, due to great differences in the exposure assessments, high heterogeneity, imprecision, and methodological limitations of the included systematic reviews, the overall epidemiological evidence was classified as probable evidence of causation. No study assessed biothermal metrics for thermal stress.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the notable methodological differences, prenatal exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, particularly during late pregnancy, was associated with adverse birth outcomes. Adhering to the appropriate systematic review guidelines for environmental health research, incorporating biothermal metrics into exposure assessment, evidence from broader geodemographic settings, and interventions are recommended in future studies.

Characteristic of bioclimatic conditions in Poland based on Physiologically Equivalent Temperature

The aim of the study was to characterise bioclimatic conditions in Poland in the times of progressing warming. This type of research permits the verification whether the progressing climate warming also translates into a change in bioclimatic conditions. This study was based on data obtained for the period 1966-2021 from 37 synoptic stations located in Poland. All the data series were uniform and obtained from the data base of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). The study revealed high variability of bioclimatic conditions in Poland both in spatial and in temporal terms. The lowest mean annual PET values were recorded in the north and north-east of the country and the highest in the south-west of Poland. The study revealed changes in the frequency of occurrence of days with cold and heat stress, as well as days with no thermal stress. The most intensive changes were determined for days with cold stress. A decrease in the number of days in this category translated into an increase in the number of days with no thermal stress and days with heat stress.

Analysis of long- and short-term biometeorological conditions in the Republic of Serbia

Long- and short-term biometeorological conditions in the Republic of Serbia were analyzed using official meteorological data from numerous weather stations located across the country. Selected biometeorological indices HUMIDEX, Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are calculated based on air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and cloudiness data from the meteorological stations on annual and summer level as well as during selected heat wave periods during 2000-2020. Application of different biometeorological indices provides similar but somewhat different results. For example, average annual HUMIDEX and UTCI values indicate no thermal stress and no discomfort at all stations, while PET indicates the occurrence of slight to moderate cold stress at all stations. Average summer PET and UTCI indicate the occurrence of slight to moderate heat stress throughout the country, while HUMIDEX indicates no discomfort. Trends of biometeorological indices on annual and summer level show a general increase throughout the country. Furthermore, heat wave analysis indicated that the most populated cities of Serbia are under dangerous and extreme heat stress during these extreme temperature events, which can influence human health and well-being. The obtained biometeorological information can be used for the preparation of climate adaptation strategies that consider the human biometeorological conditions, with a special focus on developing climate-sensitive and comfortable cities.

Evaluation of outdoor thermal comfort conditions: evidence from the Serbian major ski resort over the last 30 years

The study aims to present reliable information about thermal conditions and their impacts on visitors to ski travel destinations. Mountain tourism areas are specific since high altitudes affect the ambient weather conditions which can affect different types of human activities. In this paper, the thermal comfort and its changes in Kopaonik Mountain, the most popular ski resort in Serbia over the last 30 years, have been evaluated. Information about thermal comfort is presented by using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), and modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) in 3-h resolution for the period 1991-2020. The results indicate prevailing cold stress all year round. Days with moderate, strong, and very strong heat stress were not recorded. Strong and extreme cold stress prevailed during winter, while slight and moderate cold stress prevailed during summer. Transitional seasons were very cold, but autumn was more comfortable than spring. The occurrence of days with neutral and slightly warm/cool conditions is concentrated in the summer months. However, summer is not used enough for tourism because the choice of tourists to stay at Kopaonik is not primarily based on favorable bioclimatic conditions, but on resources for winter tourism. With global warming, the annual number of thermally favorable days has been increasing, while the number of days with extreme and strong cold stress is decreasing. Continuing this trend can significantly influence tourism in the future, and therefore, new strategies in ski resorts will be required to adapt to the changing climate.

Erosion Map Reliability Using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Erosion Potential Method (EPM): A Comparison of Mapping Methods, BELGRADE Peri-Urban Area, Serbia

Soil erosion is a product of natural and anthropogenic factors and, at the same time, an economic and environmental concern. One of the methods applied to calculate the intensity of erosion is the erosion potential method (EPM), with two possible procedures for determining the average erosion coefficient of an area: analytical and graphical. Using GIS and EPM methods, without field observations of erosion, based on cartographic materials and satellite images, erosion maps were created for 1970 and 2018, for part of the peri-urban area of Belgrade. Based on the created erosion maps, the values of the mean coefficients of erosion, as well as the arithmetic means for the study area, were determined for the settlements. The aim of the study is to assess the reliability of the mean coefficient of soil erosion, obtained from the erosion map created from the cartographic materials and satellite images, without field observations of erosion. Thus, the obtained values of the mean erosion coefficient were compared with the values obtained from the erosion map with field observation and the values obtained by the analytical procedure. Statistical analysis (F test) for 1970 and for 2018 determined a high degree of reliability (p < 0.05) of the mean erosion coefficients of the area obtained from erosion maps that were created from cartographic materials and satellite images without field observation. Regardless of the procedure for determining the mean erosion coefficient, a significant decrease in soil losses was observed, from 10.64 to 5.97 t ha−1year−1 (average annual specific production of sediments, year 1970 and 2018, respectively).

Environmental Effects from Pocket Park Design According to District Planning Patterns—Cases from Xi’an, China

Rapid urban expansion leads to the continuous deterioration of the urban thermal environment, which endangers the sustainable development of the city; meanwhile, countries all over the world are becoming increasingly interested in the mitigating effects of urban green spaces on heat islands. In this context, many studies show that pocket parks play an important role in optimizing the thermal environment of urban blocks, especially with the high-intensity development of urban blocks. Moreover, many cities in China have become mature, and it is difficult to open up large green areas. Therefore, to improve the urban thermal environment in summer, it is necessary to adapt to an efficient pocket-park design strategy in blocks. To consider the impact of block development intensity on the design strategy of pocket parks, three pocket parks in blocks with different floor-area ratios in the central area of Xi’an were selected as examples. This research compares the effects of tree density and green-space layout on the thermal environment in different floor-area ratio districts on a summer day using environmental simulation (ENVI-met). The results show that the design strategies of pocket parks in urban blocks with different development intensities are different. High tree density performs better from the perspective of improving the urban thermal environment. For the low and medium development intensity blocks, the effects of the open green space and closed green space are similar, while the open green space layout can significantly improve thermal comfort in high-intensity development blocks.

Assessment of Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Serbia’s Urban Environments during Different Seasons

The urban microclimate is gradually changing due to climate change, extreme weather conditions, urbanization, and the heat island effect. In such an altered environment, outdoor thermal comfort can have a strong impact on public health and quality of life in urban areas. In this study, three main urban areas in Serbia were selected: Belgrade (Central Serbia), Novi Sad (Northern Serbia), and Niš (Southern Serbia). The focus was on the temporal assessment of OTC, using the UTCI over a period of 20 years (1999–2018) during different seasons. The main aim is the general estimation of the OTC of Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš, in order to gain better insight into the bioclimatic condition, current trends and anomalies that have occurred. The analysis was conducted based on an hourly (7 h, 14 h, and 21 h CET) and “day by day” meteorological data set. Findings show the presence of a growing trend in seasonal UTCI anomalies, especially during summer and spring. In addition, there is a notable increase in the number of days above the defined UTCI thresholds for each season. Average annual UTCIs values also show a positive, rising trend, ranging from 0.50 °C to 1.33 °C. The most significant deviations from the average UTCI values, both seasonal and annual, were recorded in 2000, 2007, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2018.