Quantifying the Effect of Building Shadowing and Cloudiness on Mean Radiant Temperature in Singapore

High-resolution projections of outdoor thermal stress in the twenty-first century: a Tasmanian case study

To adapt to Earth's rapidly changing climate, detailed modelling of thermal stress is needed. Dangerous stress levels are becoming more frequent, longer, and more severe. While traditional measurements of thermal stress have focused on air temperature and humidity, modern measures including radiation and wind speed are becoming widespread. However, projecting such indices has presented a challenging problem, due to the need for appropriate bias correction of multiple variables that vary on hourly timescales. In this paper, we aim to provide a detailed understanding of changing thermal stress patterns incorporating modern measurements, bias correction techniques, and hourly projections to assess the impact of climate change on thermal stress at human scales. To achieve these aims, we conduct a case study of projected thermal stress in central Hobart, Australia for 2040-2059, compared to the historical period 1990-2005. We present the first hourly metre-scale projections of thermal stress driven by multivariate bias-corrected data. We bias correct four variables from six dynamically downscaled General Circulation Models. These outputs drive the Solar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry model at metre scale, calculating mean radiant temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index. We demonstrate that multivariate bias correction can correct means on multiple time scales while accurately preserving mean seasonal trends. Changes in mean air temperature and UTCI by hour of the day and month of the year reveal diurnal and annual patterns in both temporal trends and model agreement. We present plots of future median stress values in the context of historical percentiles, revealing trends and patterns not evident in mean data. Our modelling illustrates a future Hobart that experiences higher and more consistent numbers of hours of heat stress arriving earlier in the year and extending further throughout the day.

Study on the Influence of Globe Thermometer Method on the Accuracy of Calculating Outdoor Mean Radiant Temperature and Thermal Comfort

With global warming and the rapid development of urbanization, the outdoor thermal environment is deteriorating. More and more research focuses on the outdoor thermal environment and thermal comfort. The globe thermometer method is widely used in more than half of the outdoor thermal environment research studies, but there is a large error compared with the six-direction method. In order to explore the accuracy of the results of the globe thermometer method and its impact on the subsequent thermal comfort indicators, this study carried out a year-round comparative experiment under multiple working conditions outdoors in cold areas to explore the impact of meteorological parameters such as shortwave radiation, wind speed, and wind direction on the results of the globe thermometer method. The results show that the continuous increase of shortwave radiation reduces the accuracy of the black bulb thermometer to less than 60%, and the instantaneous change of wind speed will make the deviation of the mean radiation temperature obtained by the globe thermometer method exceed 5 °C. The influence of the mean radiation temperature obtained by the globe thermometer method on the thermal comfort index is mainly reflected in the working condition of a high temperature and strong radiation in summer. Taking the six-direction method as the standard, this study gives the scope of application of the globe thermometer method; and taking the human body calculation model of PET as an example, a universal optimization method for detailed division of radiation heat transfer calculation is proposed, so that it can get more accurate and rigorous conclusions in the evaluation of outdoor complex radiation environment.