Evaluation of Analysis by Cross-Validation. Part I: Using Verification Metrics

Assimilation of GOSAT Methane in the Hemispheric CMAQ; Part II: Results Using Optimal Error Statistics

We applied the parametric variance Kalman filter (PvKF) data assimilation designed in Part I of this two-part paper to GOSAT methane observations with the hemispheric version of CMAQ to obtain the methane field (i.e., optimized analysis) with its error variance. Although the Kalman filter computes error covariances, the optimality depends on how these covariances reflect the true error statistics. To achieve more accurate representation, we optimize the global variance parameters, including correlation length scales and observation errors, based on a cross-validation cost function. The model and the initial error are then estimated according to the normalized variance matching diagnostic, also to maintain a stable analysis error variance over time. The assimilation results in April 2010 are validated against independent surface and aircraft observations. The statistics of the comparison of the model and analysis show a meaningful improvement against all four types of available observations. Having the advantage of continuous assimilation, we showed that the analysis also aims at pursuing the temporal variation of independent measurements, as opposed to the model. Finally, the performance of the PvKF assimilation in capturing the spatial structure of bias and uncertainty reduction across the Northern Hemisphere is examined, indicating the capability of analysis in addressing those biases originated, whether from inaccurate emissions or modelling error.

Statistical modeling of sea ice concentration in the northwest region of the Antarctic Peninsula

Sea ice is one of the main components of the cryosphere that modifies the exchange of heat and moisture between the ocean and atmosphere, regulating the global climate. In this sense, it is important to identify the concentration of sea ice in different regions of Antarctica in order to measure the impact of environmental changes on the region's ecosystem. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the multiple linear regression and Box-Jenkins methods for predicting the concentration of sea ice along the northwest coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Sea ice concentration data from May to November for the period 1979-2018 were extracted from passive remote sensors including a scanning multichannel microwave radiometer, special sensor microwave imager, and special sensor microwave imager/sounder. Meteorological variables from the atmospheric reanalysis model ERA5 of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts were used as predictor variables, and the leave-one-out cross-validation technique was used to calibrate and validate the models. It was found that both statistical models have similar performance when analyzing residual analysis results, root mean square error of cross-validation, and final accuracy and residual standard deviation, these responses being related to the regionalization of the study area and to the Box-Jenkins presents strong, homogeneous, and stable correlations in the time series modeled for each pixel.

Using Feature Fusion and Parameter Optimization of Dual-input Convolutional Neural Network for Face Gender Recognition

In recent years, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been successfully used in image recognition and image classification. General CNNs only use a single image as feature extraction. If the quality of the obtained image is not good, it is easy to cause misjudgment or recognition error. Therefore, this study proposes the feature fusion of a dual-input CNN for the application of face gender classification. In order to improve the traditional feature fusion method, this paper also proposes a new feature fusion method, called the weighting fusion method, which can effectively improve the overall accuracy. In addition, in order to avoid the parameters of the traditional CNN being determined by the user, this paper uses a uniform experimental design (UED) instead of the user to set the network parameters. The experimental results show that in the dual-input CNN experiment, average accuracy rates of 99.98% and 99.11% on the CIA and MORPH data sets are achieved, respectively, which is superior to the traditional feature fusion method.

Evaluation of Analysis by Cross-Validation, Part II: Diagnostic and Optimization of Analysis Error Covariance

We present a general theory of estimation of analysis error covariances based on cross-validation as well as a geometric interpretation of the method. In particular, we use the variance of passive observation-minus-analysis residuals and show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on the optimality assumption. This approach is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the air quality analysis error using several different methods at active and passive observation sites. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth-Lönnberg, Desroziers et al., a new diagnostic we developed, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that, as long as the analysis is near optimal, all estimates agree within a certain error margin.