Modeling Dengue Immune Responses Mediated by Antibodies: A Qualitative Study

Within-host models unravelling the dynamics of dengue reinfections

Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong immunity prevents reinfections by the same serotype. However, recent findings challenge this assumption, prompting a reevaluation of dengue immunity dynamics. In this study, we develop a within-host modeling framework to explore different scenarios of dengue infections. Unlike previous studies, we go beyond a deterministic framework, considering individual immunological variability. Both deterministic and stochastic models are calibrated using empirical data on viral load and antibody (IgM and IgG) concentrations for all dengue serotypes, incorporating confidence intervals derived from stochastic realizations. With good agreement between the mean of the stochastic realizations and the mean field solution for each model, our approach not only successfully captures primary and heterologous secondary infection dynamics facilitated by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) but also provides, for the first time, insights into homotypic reinfection dynamics. Our study discusses the relevance of homotypic reinfections in dengue transmission at the population level, highlighting potential implications for disease prevention and control strategies.

Characterization of Dengue Virus Serotype 2 Cosmopolitan Genotype Circulating in Colombia

Dengue virus (DENV) is the etiological agent of dengue fever (DF), which is among the most prevalent vector-borne diseases in the tropics. In 2022, the Colombian health surveillance system reported more than 69,000 cases of DF. As part of a hospital-based fever surveillance study, acute-phase sera were collected from 4,545 patients with suspected dengue between 2020 and 2023 in three municipalities of Colombia. Combined reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and antigen rapid testing confirmed that 376 patients (8.3%) had DF. The virus was isolated in cell culture from 166 of these patients (44.1%), and genome sequencing was performed successfully on 122 (73.5%). Three DENV serotypes (1, 2, and 3) were identified. Phylogenetic analyses of the DENV-2 sequences revealed that 42 of 50 of the isolates (84%) belonged to the DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype lineage, clustering with sequences from Asia, Peru, and Brazil. We report the detection, isolation, and whole-genome sequencing (11 Kb) of the DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype and its recent introduction to Colombia.

Dengue virus neutralizing antibody: a review of targets, cross-reactivity, and antibody-dependent enhancement

Dengue is the most common viral infection spread by mosquitoes, prevalent in tropical countries. The acute dengue virus (DENV) infection is a benign and primarily febrile illness. However, secondary infection with alternative serotypes can worsen the condition, leading to severe and potentially fatal dengue. The antibody raised by the vaccine or the primary infections are frequently cross-reactive; however, weakly neutralizing, and during subsequent infection, they may increase the odds of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). Despite that, many neutralizing antibodies have been identified against the DENV, which are thought to be useful in reducing dengue severity. Indeed, an antibody must be free from ADE for therapeutic application, as it is pretty common in dengue infection and escalates disease severity. Therefore, this review has described the critical characteristics of DENV and the potential immune targets in general. The primary emphasis is given to the envelope protein of DENV, where potential epitopes targeted for generating serotype-specific and cross-reactive antibodies have critically been described. In addition, a novel class of highly neutralizing antibodies targeted to the quaternary structure, similar to viral particles, has also been described. Lastly, we have discussed different aspects of the pathogenesis and ADE, which would provide significant insights into developing safe and effective antibody therapeutics and equivalent protein subunit vaccines.

Within-host models of dengue virus transmission with immune response

Dengue fever is an infectious viral fever. The complex behavior of the virus within the body can be explained through mathematical models to understand the virus’s dynamics. We propose two different with-in host models of dengue virus transmission with humoral immune response. The proposed models differ from one another because one of the models assumes that newly formed viruses infect healthy cells again. To understand the dynamics of the proposed models, we perform a comparative study of stability analysis, numerical simulation, and sensitivity analysis. The basic reproduction number (BRN) of the two models is computed using next-generation matrix method. The local stability (l.s) analysis is discussed using the linearization method. The Lyapunov’s direct method is used to check the global stability (g.s) of the models. It has been found that both the equilibrium states for both the models, namely, virus-free equilibrium state and endemic equilibrium state, are globally stable, based on the value of BRN. Results show the influence of immune response on the cell dynamics and virus particles. The virus neutralization rate by antibodies and rate that affects the antibody growth are highly sensitive for the two models. Optimal control is applied to explore the possible control strategies to prevent virus spread in the host system. It is evident from the results that the strategy to administrate antibiotic drugs and home remedies slow down the virus spread in the host.

Within-host modeling to measure dynamics of antibody responses after natural infection or vaccination: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Within-host models describe the dynamics of immune cells when encountering a pathogen, and how these dynamics can lead to an individual-specific immune response. This systematic review aims to summarize which within-host methodology has been used to study and quantify antibody kinetics after infection or vaccination. In particular, we focus on data-driven and theory-driven mechanistic models.

MATERIALS

PubMed and Web of Science databases were used to identify eligible papers published until May 2022. Eligible publications included those studying mathematical models that measure antibody kinetics as the primary outcome (ranging from phenomenological to mechanistic models).

RESULTS

We identified 78 eligible publications, of which 8 relied on an Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)-based modelling approach to describe antibody kinetics after vaccination, and 12 studies used such models in the context of humoral immunity induced by natural infection. Mechanistic modeling studies were summarized in terms of type of study, sample size, measurements collected, antibody half-life, compartments and parameters included, inferential or analytical method, and model selection.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the importance of investigating antibody kinetics and underlying mechanisms of (waning of) the humoral immunity, few publications explicitly account for this in a mathematical model. In particular, most research focuses on phenomenological rather than mechanistic models. The limited information on the age groups or other risk factors that might impact antibody kinetics, as well as a lack of experimental or observational data remain important concerns regarding the interpretation of mathematical modeling results. We reviewed the similarities between the kinetics following vaccination and infection, emphasising that it may be worth translating some features from one setting to another. However, we also stress that some biological mechanisms need to be distinguished. We found that data-driven mechanistic models tend to be more simplistic, and theory-driven approaches lack representative data to validate model results.

Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review

Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. Mathematical models describing dengue fever epidemiological dynamics are found back from 1970. Dengue fever is a viral mosquito-borne infection caused by four antigenically related but distinct serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4). With 2.5 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection, it is a major international public health concern. Although most of the cases are asymptomatic or mild, the disease immunological response is complex, with severe disease linked to the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) - a disease augmentation phenomenon where pre-existing antibodies to previous dengue infection do not neutralize but rather enhance the new infection. Here, we present a 10-year systematic review on mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology. Specifically, we review multi-strain frameworks describing host-to-host and vector-host transmission models and within-host models describing viral replication and the respective immune response. Following a detailed literature search in standard scientific databases, different mathematical models in terms of their scope, analytical approach and structural form, including model validation and parameter estimation using empirical data, are described and analyzed. Aiming to identify a consensus on infectious diseases modeling aspects that can contribute to public health authorities for disease control, we revise the current understanding of epidemiological and immunological factors influencing the transmission dynamics of dengue. This review provide insights on general features to be considered to model aspects of real-world public health problems, such as the current epidemiological scenario we are living in.