Risk Assessment of Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes (Diptera: Culicidae) Invading China under Climate Change

Predicting global potential distribution of Peromyscopsylla hesperomys and Orchopeas sexdentatus and risk assessment for invading China under climate change

Background

Peromyscopsylla hesperomys and Orchopeas sexdentatus are regarded to be representative plague vectors in the United States. The incidence of plague is rising globally, possibly due to climate change and environmental damage. Environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of plague vectors.

Methods

Maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) were utilized to predict the distributions of these two fleas and their trends into the future. The main environmental factors influencing the distribution of these two fleas were analyzed. A risk assessment system was constructed to calculate the invasion risk values of the species.

Results

Temperature has a significant effect on the distribution of the potentially suitable areas for P. hesperomys and O. sexdentatus. They have the potential to survive in suitable areas of China in the future. The risk assessment system indicated that the risk level for the invasion of these two species into China was moderate.

Conclusion

In order to achieve early detection, early interception, and early management, China should perfect its monitoring infrastructure and develop scientific prevention and control strategies to prevent the invasion of foreign flea vectors.

Vector microbiome: will global climate change affect vector competence and pathogen transmission?

Vector-borne diseases are among the greatest causes of human suffering globally. Several studies have linked climate change and increasing temperature with rises in vector abundance, and in the incidence and geographical distribution of diseases. The microbiome of vectors can have profound effects on how efficiently a vector sustains pathogen development and transmission. Growing evidence indicates that the composition of vectors' gut microbiome might change with shifts in temperature. Nonetheless, due to a lack of studies on vector microbiome turnover under a changing climate, the consequences for vector-borne disease incidence are still unknown. Here, we argue that climate change effects on vector competence are still poorly understood and the expected increase in vector-borne disease transmission might not follow a relationship as simple and straightforward as past research has suggested. Furthermore, we pose questions that are yet to be answered to enhance our current understanding of the effect of climate change on vector microbiomes, competence, and, ultimately, vector-borne diseases transmission.

Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective

Climate change affects ecosystems and human health in multiple dimensions. With the acceleration of climate change, climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose an increasing threat to public health. This paper summaries 10 publications on the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human health; then it synthesizes the other existing literature to more broadly explain how climate change drives the transmission and spread of VBDs through an ecological perspective. We highlight the multi-dimensional nature of climate change, its interaction with other factors, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transmission and spread of VBDs, specifically including: (1) the generally nonlinear relationship of local climate (temperature, precipitation and wind) and VBD transmission, with temperature especially exhibiting an n-shape relation; (2) the time-lagged effect of regional climate phenomena (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation) on VBD transmission; (3) the u-shaped effect of extreme climate (heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts) on VBD spread; (4) how interactions between non-climatic (land use and human mobility) and climatic factors increase VBD transmission and spread; and (5) that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change is debatable, and its impact on VBDs remains uncertain. By exploring the influence of climate change and non-climatic factors on VBD transmission and spread, this paper provides scientific understanding and guidance for their effective prevention and control.