Assessment of the Spatial Invasion Risk of Intentionally Introduced Alien Plant Species (IIAPS) under Environmental Change in South Korea

Effects of land-use types and the exotic species, Hypochaeris radicata, on plant diversity in human-transformed landscapes of the biosphere reserve, Jeju Island, Korea

Land-use and plant invasion influence biodiversity. Understanding the effects of land-use types and invasive plants on the ecosystem is crucial for better management and the development of strategic plans for increasing biodiversity in Jeju Island, Korea, a designated Biosphere Reserve by the United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. The effect of the most dominant invasive exotic species, Hypochaeris radicata, on the four land-use types of Jeju Island was investigated. Plant composition, soil characteristics, and plant diversity among four land-use types (cropland, green space, neglected land, and residential) were compared. Among the land-use types, croplands had the most diverse plant composition and the highest richness in exotic and native plant species. Croplands, such as tangerine orchards, which are widely distributed throughout Jeju Island, showed the highest plant diversity because of medium intensity disturbance caused by weed removal. The relative cover of H. radicata did not differ between land-use types. However, H. radicata invasion was negatively related with plant species richness, making this invasive species a threat to the biodiversity of native herbs present in land-use areas. H. radicata adapts to areas with a broad range of soil properties and a variety of land-use types. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor land-use types and patterns of plant invasion to guide the implementation of consistent management and conservation strategies for maintaining ecosystem integrity of the transformed habitat in Jeju Island.

Assessing the Potential Distribution of Oxalis latifolia, a Rapidly Spreading Weed, in East Asia under Global Climate Change

Oxalis latifolia, a perennial herbaceous weed, is a highly invasive species that poses a threat to agricultural lands worldwide. East Asia is under a high risk of invasion of O. latifolia under global climate change. To evaluate this risk, we employed maximum entropy modeling considering two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Currently, a small portion (8.02%) of East Asia is within the O. latifolia distribution, with the highest coverages in Chinese Taipei, China, and Japan (95.09%, 9.8%, and 0.24%, respectively). However, our projections indicated that this invasive weed will likely be introduced to South Korea and North Korea between 2041 and 2060 and 2081 and 2100, respectively. The species is expected to cover approximately 9.79% and 23.68% (SSP2-4.5) and 11.60% and 27.41% (SSP5-8.5) of the total land surface in East Asia by these time points, respectively. South Korea and Japan will be particularly susceptible, with O. latifolia potentially invading up to 80.73% of their territory by 2081-2100. Mongolia is projected to remain unaffected. This study underscores the urgent need for effective management strategies and careful planning to prevent the introduction and limit the expansion of O. latifolia in East Asian countries.

Evidence of the niche expansion of crofton weed following invasion in China

Niche dynamics of invasive alien plants (IAPs) play pivotal roles in biological invasion. Ageratina adenophora-one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and some parts of the world-poses severe ecological and socioeconomic threats. However, the spatiotemporal niche dynamics of A. adenophora in China remain unknown, which we aimed to elucidate in the present study. China, Mexico; using a unifying framework, we reconstructed the climate niche dynamics of A. adenophora and applied the optimal MaxEnt model to predict its potential geographical distribution in China. Furthermore, we compared the heterogeneity of A. adenophora niche between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). We observed a low niche overlap between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). Specifically, the niche of A. adenophora in China has distinctly expanded compared to that in Mexico, enhancing the invasion risk of this IAP in the former country. In fact, the climatic niche of A. adenophora in Mexico is a subset of that in China. The potential geographical distribution of A. adenophora is concentrated in the tropical and subtropical zones of Southwest China, and its geographical distribution pattern in China is shaped by the combination of precipitation and temperature variables. The niche dynamics of A. adenophora follow the hypothesis of niche shift and conservatism. The present work provides a unifying framework for studies on the niche dynamics of other IAPs worldwide.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of Parthenium hysterophorus around the World and in South Korea

The global climate change, including increases in temperature and precipitation, may exacerbate the invasion by P. hysterophorus. Here, MaxEnt modeling was performed to predict P. hysterophorus distribution worldwide and in South Korea under the current and future climate global climate changes, including increases in temperature and precipitation. Under the current climate, P. hysterophorus was estimated to occupy 91.26%, 83.26%, and 62.75% of the total land area of Australia, South America, and Oceania, respectively. However, under future climate scenarios, the habitat distribution of P. hysterophorus would show the greatest change in Europe (56.65%) and would extend up to 65°N by 2081-2100 in South Korea, P. hysterophorus currently potentially colonizing 2.24% of the land area, particularly in six administrative divisions. In the future, P. hysterophorus would spread rapidly, colonizing all administrative divisions, except Incheon, by 2081-2100. Additionally, the southern and central regions of South Korea showed greater habitat suitability than the northern region. These findings suggest that future climate change will increase P. hysterophorus distribution both globally and locally. Therefore, effective control and management strategies should be employed around the world and in South Korea to restrict the habitat expansion of P. hysterophorus.

Potential distribution prediction of Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios

The vicious invasive alien plant Amaranthus palmeri poses a serious threat to ecological security and food security due to its strong adaptability, competitiveness, and herbicide resistance. Predicting its potential habitats under current and future climate change is critical for monitoring and early warning. In this study, we used two sets of climate data, namely, WorldClim1.4 and RCPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 1.4 and future climate data of RCPs), WorldClim2.1 and SSPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 2.1 and future climate data of SSPs), to analyze the dominant environmental variables affecting the habitat suitability and predict the potential distribution of A. palmeri to climate change in China based on the MaxEnt model. The results show that (i) Temperature has a greater impact on the distribution of A. palmeri. The relative contributions of temperature‐related variables count to 70% or more, and the annual mean temperature (bio1) reached more than 40%. (ii) At present, the potentially suitable area is widely distributed in the central‐east and parts of southwest China, and the high suitable area is focused on the North China Plain. The potential suitable area predicted by WorldClim1.4 and WorldClim2.1 both accounts for about 31% of China's total land area. (iii) Future climate change will expand the suitable habitats to high latitudes and altitudes. The overall suitable area maximum increased to 44.93% under SSPs and 38.91% under RCPs. We conclude that climate change would increase the risk of A. palmeri expanding to high latitudes and altitudes, the results have practical implications for the effective long‐term management in response to the global warming of A. palmeri.

Climate change-induced invasion risk of ecosystem disturbing alien plant species: An evaluation using species distribution modeling

Species distribution modeling is widely used for evaluating invasion risk, and for prioritizing areas for the control and management of invasive species. However, selecting a modeling tool that accurately predicts species invasion risk requires a systematic approach. In this study, five species distribution models (SDMs), namely, artificial neural network (ANN), generalized linear model (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and random forest (RF), were performed and evaluated their model performance using the mean value of area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS), and Kappa scores of 12 ecosystem disturbing alien plant species (EDAPS). The mean evaluation metric scores were highest in RF (AUC = 0.924 ± 0.058, TSS = 0.789 ± 0.109, Kappa = 0.671 ± 0.096, n = 12) and lowest in ANN. The ANOVA of AUC, TSS, and Kappa metrics revealed the RF model was significantly different from other SDMs and was therefore selected as the relatively best model. The potential distribution area and invasion risk for each EDAPS were quantified. Under the current climate conditions of South Korea, the average potential distribution area of EDAPS was estimated to be 13,062 km2. However, in future climate change scenarios, the average percentage change of EDAPS distribution relative to the current climate was predicted to be increased over 219.93%. Furthermore, under the current climate, 0.16% of the area of the country was estimated to be under a very high risk of invasion, but this would increase to 60.43% by 2070. Invasion risk under the current climate conditions was highest in the northwestern, southern, and southeastern regions, and in densely populated cities, such as Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. By 2070, invasion risk was predicted to expand across the whole country except in the northeastern region. These results suggested that climate change induced the risk of EDAPS invasiveness, and SDMs could be valuable tools for alien and invasive plant species risk assessment.

Creation of Value Chains for the Sustainability of Control and Eradication Actions on Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle

Actions to control and eradicate Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle are essential to the prevention of uncontrolled growth and expansion of this species and its competition with native species. This competition leads to biodiversity and productivity losses in forests. The present study evaluated the potential to create value chains to maintain the sustainability of control actions through the energy recovery of collected A. altissima biomass. Other possibilities were also discussed, such as the extraction of allelopathic compounds. For this purpose, and to assess the potential for energy recovery, samples of A. altissima were collected and analyzed in the laboratory to discuss the potential of using extracted compounds in nature-based applications, and a literature review was carried out. It was found that, although there is potential for the use of these biomasses for energy production, the high levels of chlorine and heavy metals pose some obstacles to their large-scale use, mainly due to their corrosive potential. On the other hand, the extraction of allelopathic compounds was shown to be potentially interesting for use in the control of other invasive species. Used in this application, it may be possible to create value chains to sustain, control, and eradicate the actions of this invasive species.

Molecular Evidence Reveals the Sympatric Distribution of Cervus nippon yakushimae and Cervus nippon taiouanus on Jeju Island, South Korea

Non-native species threaten native ecosystems and species, particularly on islands where rates of endemism and vulnerability to threats are high. Understanding species invasion will aid in providing insights into ecological and evolutionary processes. To identify the non-native sika deer (Cervus nippon) population in Jeju, South Korea, and their phylogenetic affinities, we collected tissue samples from roadkill and the World Natural Heritage Headquarters in Jeju. Mitochondrial DNA cytochrome B (CytB) gene sequences were analyzed to determine two distinct CytB haplotypes. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood tree revealed two haplotypes of CytB clustered into two different groups representing two subspecies: C. n. yakushimae, native to Japan, and C. n. taiouanus, native to Taiwan. The tentative divergence time between the two subspecies was estimated at 1.81 million years. Our study confirmed that the two subspecies of sika deer are sympatric in the natural ecosystem of Jeju Island. This study provides valuable information to help government and conservation agencies understand alien species and determine control policies for conserving native biodiversity in South Korea.

Climate change induced habitat expansion of nutria (Myocastor coypus) in South Korea

The nutria, (Myocastor coypus), is a semiaquatic rodent native to the subtropical and temperate regions of South America. The species was introduced to South Korea for meat and fur production purposes and a wild population has become established. The species subsequently invaded aquatic ecosystems and destroyed aquatic vegetation and cultivated crops. Thus, it is essential to understand their current distribution and future range expansion for effective control and eradication strategies to reduce the risk of colonization into new regions. In this study, we used niche modeling procedure to identify potentially suitable habitats for M. coypus under current and future predicted climate change using the maximum entropy algorithm. We found that the main habitat area of M. coypus is expected to expand under a warming climate from ~ 4069 km² in the southern and southeastern regions of South Korea, to the northern border of the country, with estimated ranges of 21,744 km², 55,859 km², and 64,937 km² by 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. The findings of the present study assist in identifying the future distribution and potential dispersion routes of M. coypus in South Korea, which is important for informing the government regarding essential management actions plans at regional and local scales.