Towards Quantum-Chemical Level Calculations of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Variants of Concern by First Principles Density Functional Theory

Changes in total charge on spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 in emerging lineages

Motivation

Charged amino acid residues on the spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been shown to influence its binding to different cell surface receptors, its non-specific electrostatic interactions with the environment, and its structural stability and conformation. It is therefore important to obtain a good understanding of amino acid mutations that affect the total charge on the spike protein which have arisen across different SARS-CoV-2 lineages during the course of the virus' evolution.

Results

We analyse the change in the number of ionizable amino acids and the corresponding total charge on the spike proteins of almost 2200 SARS-CoV-2 lineages that have emerged over the span of the pandemic. Our results show that the previously observed trend toward an increase in the positive charge on the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern has essentially stopped with the emergence of the early omicron variants. Furthermore, recently emerged lineages show a greater diversity in terms of their composition of ionizable amino acids. We also demonstrate that the patterns of change in the number of ionizable amino acids on the spike protein are characteristic of related lineages within the broader clade division of the SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic tree. Due to the ubiquity of electrostatic interactions in the biological environment, our findings are relevant for a broad range of studies dealing with the structural stability of SARS-CoV-2 and its interactions with the environment.

Availability and implementation

The data underlying the article are available in the Supplementary material.

Predicting potential SARS-CoV-2 mutations of concern via full quantum mechanical modelling

Ab initio quantum mechanical models can characterize and predict intermolecular binding, but only recently have models including more than a few hundred atoms gained traction. Here, we simulate the electronic structure for approximately 13 000 atoms to predict and characterize binding of SARS-CoV-2 spike variants to the human ACE2 (hACE2) receptor using the quantum mechanics complexity reduction (QM-CR) approach. We compare four spike variants in our analysis: Wuhan, Omicron, and two Omicron-based variants. To assess binding, we mechanistically characterize the energetic contribution of each amino acid involved, and predict the effect of select single amino acid mutations. We validate our computational predictions experimentally by comparing the efficacy of spike variants binding to cells expressing hACE2. At the time we performed our simulations (December 2021), the mutation A484K which our model predicted to be highly beneficial to ACE2 binding had not been identified in epidemiological surveys; only recently (August 2023) has it appeared in variant BA.2.86. We argue that our computational model, QM-CR, can identify mutations critical for intermolecular interactions and inform the engineering of high-specificity interactors.

Evolutionary changes in the number of dissociable amino acids on spike proteins and nucleoproteins of SARS-CoV-2 variants

The spike protein of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for target recognition, cellular entry, and endosomal escape of the virus. At the same time, it is the part of the virus that exhibits the greatest sequence variation across the many variants which have emerged during its evolution. Recent studies have indicated that with progressive lineage emergence, the positive charge on the spike protein has been increasing, with certain positively charged amino acids (AAs) improving the binding of the spike protein to cell receptors. We have performed a detailed analysis of dissociable AAs of more than 1400 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages, which confirms these observations while suggesting that this progression has reached a plateau with Omicron and its subvariants and that the positive charge is not increasing further. Analysis of the nucleocapsid protein shows no similar increase in positive charge with novel variants, which further indicates that positive charge of the spike protein is being evolutionarily selected for. Furthermore, comparison with the spike proteins of known coronaviruses shows that already the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 spike protein carries an unusually large amount of positively charged AAs when compared to most other betacoronaviruses. Our study sheds light on the evolutionary changes in the number of dissociable AAs on the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, complementing existing studies and providing a stepping stone towards a better understanding of the relationship between the spike protein charge and viral infectivity and transmissibility.