A Comprehensive Evaluation of Associations Between Routinely Collected Staging Information and The Response to (Chemo)Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer

Magnetic resonance imaging-based radiomics analysis for prediction of treatment response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and clinical outcome in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer: A large multicentric and validated study

Our study investigated whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based radiomics features could predict good response (GR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and clinical outcome in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Radiomics features were extracted from the T2 weighted (T2W) and Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) images of 1070 LARC patients retrospectively and prospectively recruited from three hospitals. To create radiomic models for GR prediction, three classifications were utilized. The radiomic model with the best performance was integrated with important clinical MRI features to create the combined model. Finally, two clinical MRI features and ten radiomic features were chosen for GR prediction. The combined model, constructed with the tumor size, MR-detected extramural venous invasion, and radiomic signature generated by Support Vector Machine (SVM), showed promising discrimination of GR, with area under the curves of 0.799 (95% CI, 0.760-0.838), 0.797 (95% CI, 0.733-0.860), 0.754 (95% CI, 0.678-0.829), and 0.727 (95% CI, 0.641-0.813) in the training and three validation datasets, respectively. Decision curve analysis verified the clinical usefulness. Furthermore, according to Kaplan-Meier curves, patients with a high likelihood of GR as determined by the combined model had better disease-free survival than those with a low probability. This radiomics model was developed based on large-sample size, multicenter datasets, and prospective validation with high radiomics quality score, and also had clinical utility.

Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based radiomics model explained by the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method for predicting complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: a multicenter retrospective study

Background

Predicting the response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) before initiating treatment is essential for tailoring therapeutic strategies and monitoring prognosis in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). In this study, we aimed to develop and validate radiomic-based models to predict clinical and pathological complete responses (cCR and pCR, respectively) by incorporating the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method for model interpretation.

Methods

A total of 285 patients with complete pretreatment clinical characteristics and T1-weighted (T1W) and T2-weighted (T2W) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 3 centers were retrospectively recruited. The features of tumor lesions were extracted by PyRadiomics and selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm. The selected features were used to build multilayer perceptron (MLP) models alone or combined with clinical features. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve, and calibration curve were applied to evaluate performance of models. The SHAP method was adopted to explain the prediction models.

Results

The radiomic-based models all showed better performances than clinical models. The clinical-radiomic models showed the best differentiation on cCR and pCR with mean AUCs of 0.718 and 0.810 in the validation set, respectively. The decision curves of the clinical-radiomic models showed its values in clinical application. The SHAP method powerfully interpreted the prediction models both at a holistic and individual levels.

Conclusions

Our study highlights that the radiomic-based prediction models have more excellent abilities than clinical models and can effectively predict treatment response and optimize therapeutic strategies for patients with LARCs.

Clinical and genetic factors associated with tumor response to neoadjuvant (chemo)radiotherapy, survival and recurrence risk in rectal cancer

Rectal cancer poses challenges in preoperative treatment response, with up to 30% achieving a complete response (CR). Personalized treatment relies on accurate identification of responders at diagnosis. This study aimed to unravel CR determinants, overall survival (OS), and time to recurrence (TTR) using clinical and targeted sequencing data. Analyzing 402 patients undergoing preoperative treatment, tumor stage, size, and treatment emerged as robust response predictors. CR rates were higher in smaller, early-stage, and intensively treated tumors. Targeted sequencing analyzed 216 cases, while 120 patients provided hotspot mutation data. KRAS mutation dramatically reduced CR odds by over 50% (odds ratio [OR] = 0.3 in the targeted sequencing and OR = 0.4 hotspot cohorts, respectively). In contrast, SMAD4 and SYNE1 mutations were associated with higher CR rates (OR = 6.0 and 6.8, respectively). Favorable OS was linked to younger age, CR, and low baseline carcinoembryonic antigen levels. Notably, CR and an APC mutation increased TTR, while a BRAF mutation negatively affected TTR. Beyond tumor burden, SMAD4 and SYNE1 mutations significantly influenced CR. KRAS mutations independently correlated with radiotherapy resistance, and BRAF mutations heightened recurrence risk. Intriguingly, non-responding tumors with initially small sizes carried a higher risk of recurrence. The findings, even if limited in addition to the imperfect clinical factors, offer insights into rectal cancer treatment response, guiding personalized therapeutic strategies. By uncovering factors impacting CR, OS, and TTR, this study underscores the importance of tailored approaches for rectal cancer patients. These findings, based on extensive analysis and mutation data, pave the way for personalized interventions, optimizing outcomes in the challenges of rectal cancer preoperative treatment.

Predictive Value of Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes and Ki-67 for Pathological Response to Total Neoadjuvant Therapy in Rectal Cancer

PURPOSE

Patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) who underwent total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) showed an increase in the percentage of complete pathological response (pCR). The purpose of this study was to determine the correlation between Ki-67, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), and TNT in LARC patients.

METHOD

In total, one hundred fifty-nine patients with LARC were included in this prospective study. The international working group was used to categorize the TIL into three groups based on the percentage and density of staining: group 0 (0-10%), group 1 (11-59%), and group 2 (≥ 60%). Ki-67 expression was classified as low (≤ 50%) or high (> 50%).

RESULT

Most patients had tumor grade III (74.2%) and T2-T3 (78.6%). Lymph node involvement (48.7%) and tumor size ≥ 3 cm were detected in approximately half of the patients. Forty-four percent of patients had a high Ki-67 index; 15.7% of patients belonged to group 1, and 21.4% belonged to group 2. pCR was detected in 18.2% of the patients. TIL and Ki-67 levels were significantly correlated with pCR (p = 0.001 and 0.003 for multivariate analysis and 0.001 and 0.03 for univariate analysis, respectively).

CONCLUSION

There was a statistically significant correlation between Ki-67, TIL, and pCR following TNT protocol, which may help maximize the therapeutic outcome.

Oncological outcomes after a pathological complete response following total neoadjuvant therapy or chemoradiotherapy for high-risk locally advanced rectal cancer in the RAPIDO trial

BACKGROUND

A pathological complete response (pCR) following chemoradiation (CRT) or short-course radiotherapy (scRT) leads to a favourable prognosis in patients with rectal cancer. Total neo-adjuvant therapy (TNT) doubles the pCR rate, but it is unknown whether oncological outcomes remain favourable and whether the same characteristics are associated with pCR as after CRT.

METHODS

Comparison between patients with pCR in the RAPIDO trial in the experimental [EXP] (scRT, chemotherapy, surgery, as TNT) and standard-of-care treatment [STD] (CRT, surgery, postoperative chemotherapy depending on hospital policy) groups. Primary and secondary outcomes were time-to-recurrence (TTR), overall survival (OS) and association between patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics and pCR.

RESULTS

Among patients with a resection within six months after preoperative treatment, 120/423 (28%) [EXP] and 57/398 (14%) [STD] achieved a pCR. Following pCR, 5-year cumulative TTR and OS rates in the EXP and STD arms were 8% vs. 7% (hazard ratio 1.04, 95%CI 0.32-3.38) and 94% vs. 93% (hazard ratio 1.41, 95%CI 0.51-3.92), respectively. Besides the EXP treatment (odds ratio 2.70, 95%CI 1.83-3.97), pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) <5, pre-treatment tumour size <40 mm and cT2 were associated with pCR. Distance from the anal verge was the only characteristic with a statistically significant difference in association with pCR between the EXP and STD treatment (Pinteraction=0.042). pCR rates did not increase with prolonged treatment time.

CONCLUSIONS

The doubled pCR rate of TNT compared to CRT results in similar oncological outcomes. Characteristics associated with pCR are the EXP treatment, normal CEA, and small tumour size.

Predicting the Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Using Soluble Immune Checkpoints

Introduction: Personalizing neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) requires identifying biomarkers that predict treatment response. This study evaluates soluble immune checkpoints (sICPs) as predictive markers for neoadjuvant treatment response in LARC patients located in the middle and lower rectum. Materials and Methods: This prospective study included patients diagnosed with clinical stage T3 or T4 rectal cancer (RC) based on pelvic magnetic resonance imaging, with or without pelvic lymph node involvement. The modified Ryan scoring system was used to assess the response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). Blood samples were collected from all RC patients before initiating nCRT. Various sICPs (sCD25, 4-1BB, B7.2, free active TGF-β1, CTLA-4, PD-L1, PD-1, Tim-3, LAG-3, galectin-9), along with age, gender, stage, blood cell counts, and biochemical variables, were recorded and compared based on tumor regression grade (TRG). Results: Among 38 participants, lymphocyte count was higher, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet count were lower in patients with complete/near-complete response (TRG 0/1). In addition, TRG 0/1 patients had significantly lower levels of soluble galectin-9 than TRG 2/3 patients. Furthermore, platelet count was the only parameter that showed a significant difference among the three groups (TRG 0/1, TRG 2, and TRG 3). PLR demonstrated the highest sensitivity and specificity, with >80% for both measures. Conclusions: Lymphocyte count, PLR, NLR, platelet count, and galectin-9 may help predict favorable neoadjuvant treatment response in LARC patients, although without providing a definitive outcome. Personalized therapy based on these markers could enhance treatment decision making in LARC management.

Recent advances in rectal cancer treatment - are we on the right track?

Background

Staging and treatment of rectal cancer have evolved over several decades with considerably fewer locoregional recurrences but no marked improved survival since systemic recurrence risks remain virtually unchanged. This development will briefly be summarised followed by a thorough discussion of two recent developments.

Methods

A systematic approach towards the literature is aimed at focusing on organ preservation and the delivery of all non-surgical treatments prior to surgery or total neoadjuvant treatment (TNT).

Results

Organ preservation, that is to defer surgery if the tumour happens to disappear completely after any pre-treatment given to locally advanced tumours to decrease recurrence risks has increased in popularity and is, if not universally, widely accepted. To give neo-adjuvant treatment to intentionally obtain a clinically complete remission to avoid surgery is practised in some environments but is mostly still experimental. TNT, that is to provide both radiotherapy and chemotherapy aimed at killing microscopic disease in the pelvis or elsewhere has been subject to several trials. Collectively, they show that the chance of achieving a complete response, pathologically or clinically, has approximately doubled, increasing the chance for organ preservation, and the risk of distant metastasis has decreased at least in some trials. The best schedule remains to be established.

Conclusions

To obtain substantial progress and also improve survival, the systemic treatments need to be improved even if preoperative delivery is more effective and better tolerated than postoperative. The locoregional treatment may be further optimised through better risk prediction.

Short-course radiotherapy for rectal cancer: real-world evidence in Argentina

Background

Short-course radiotherapy (SCRT) of 25 Gy in five daily fractions is a recommended strategy in the neoadjuvant setting for resectable locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), as well as in cases of metastatic disease for local control. There is scarce information regarding the use of SCRT for patients who have received nonoperative management.

Objectives

To describe the characteristics of patients who received treatment with SCRT for LARC and metastatic rectal cancer, toxicity, and the approach after radiation treatment.

Methods

This is a retrospective analysis of all patients who underwent SCRT for rectal cancer at the Alexander Fleming Institute from March 2014 to June 2022.

Results

In total, 44 patients were treated with SCRT. The majority were male (29, 66%), with a median age of 59 years (interquartile range 46-73). Most patients had stage IV disease (26, 59.1%), followed by LARC (18, 40.9%). Most lesions were located in the middle rectum (30, 68%). The majority of LARC patients underwent SCRT followed by consolidation chemotherapy (ChT) (16/18, 89%), while most patients with metastatic disease underwent SCRT followed by consolidation ChT (14/26, 53.8%). A clinical complete response (cCR) was documented in 8/44, 18.2% of patients. Most patients with LARC and cCR were managed by a watch and wait approach (5/18, 27.7%). Local recurrence was observed in LARC cases (2/18, 11.1%). Patients who underwent SCRT following consolidation ChT were more likely to have adverse events (AEs) than those undergoing induction ChT following SCRT (11/30, 36.7% versus 3/12, 25%, p = 0.02).

Conclusion

In a subgroup of patients diagnosed with LARC and treated with SCRT followed by ChT, surgical treatment could be omitted after they achieved a cCR. Local recurrence was similar to that reported in a previous study. SCRT is a reasonable option for local disease control in stage IV disease, yielding low toxicity rates. Therefore, decisions must be made by a multidisciplinary team. Prospective studies are necessary to reach further conclusions.

A type I interferon footprint in pre-operative biopsies is an independent biomarker that in combination with CD8+ T cell quantification can improve the prediction of response to neoadjuvant treatment of rectal adenocarcinoma

Tailored treatment for patients with rectal cancer requires clinically available markers to predict their response to neoadjuvant treatment. The quantity of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in pre-operative tumor biopsies has been suggested to predict a favorable response, but opposing results exist. A biopsy-adapted Immunoscore (ISB) based on TILs has recently emerged as a promising predictor of tumor regression and prognosis in (colo)rectal cancer. We aimed to refine the ISB for prediction of response using multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) on pre-operative rectal cancer biopsies. We combined the distribution and density of conventional T cell subsets and γδT cells with a type I Interferon (IFN)-driven response assessed using Myxovirus resistance protein A (MxA) expression. We found that pathological complete response (pCR) following neoadjuvant treatment was associated with type I IFN. Stratification of patients according to the density of CD8+ in the entire tumor tissue and MxA+ cells in tumor stroma, where equal weight was assigned to both parameters, resulted in improved predictive quality compared to the ISB. This novel stratification approach using these two independent parameters in pre-operative biopsies could potentially aid in identifying patients with a good chance of achieving a pCR following neoadjuvant treatment.

Assessing the predictive value of clinical factors to pathological complete response for locally advanced rectal cancer: An analysis of 124 patients

Purpose

To investigate the clinical factors affecting pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

Methods

Clinical data of 124 LARC patients treated with nCRT and surgery in the fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from 2014 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. In this study, univariate analysis and logistic dichotomous multivariate regression analysis were used to study the clinical factors affecting pCR, and the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to further verify the accuracy of partial indexes in predicting pCR.

Results

Of the 124 enrolled patients, 19 patients (15.32%) achieved pCR. Univariate analysis showed that the number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum carcino-embryonic antigen (CEA) level before treatment, MRI longitudinal length of tumor, and extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) were statistically correlated with pCR. ROC analysis of the longitudinal length of tumor measured by MRI showed that the area under the curve (AUC) value, sensitivity and specificity were 0.735, 89.47% and 48.57% respectively, and the optimal cut-off value was 5.5cm. The ROC analysis showed that the AUC value, sensitivity and specificity of pCR prediction using CEA were 0.741, 63.16% and 90.48%, respectively, and the optimal cut-off value was 3.1ng/ml. Multivariate results showed that the number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum CEA level before treatment, and EMVI were independent predictors of pCR.

Conclusion

The number of cycles of consolidation chemotherapy, serum CEA level before treatment, and EMVI may be important determinants of LARC patients to reach pCR after nCRT.

Outcomes after the watch-and-wait strategy and local excision treatment for rectal cancer: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The watch-and-wait (W&W) strategy and local excision (LE) have been used in patients with clinical complete response (cCR) for rectal cancer, but the comparative outcomes of the two strategies are controversial. We compared the efficacy of the W&W strategy with LE for rectal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) or total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Several domestic and foreign databases were searched for the relevant literature on comparative trials of the W&W strategy and LE surgery for rectal cancer after neoadjuvant therapy with the following outcomes; differences in local recurrence (LR), distant metastasis (DM/DM+LR), 3-year disease-free survival (DFS), 3-year local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and 3-year overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Nine articles, were analyzed. Overall, 442 patients were included, with 267 and 175 patients in the W&W and LE groups, respectively. Meta-analysis results showed no significant differences the between W&W and LE groups with respect to LR, DM/DM+LR, 3-year DFS, 3-year LRFS, and 3-year OS. This study has been registered in PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42022331208).

CONCLUSION

The W&W strategy may be preferred for some rectal cancer patients who select LE and reach cCR or near cCR after nCRT or TNT.

Determinants of Pre-Surgical Treatment in Primary Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

When preoperative radiotherapy (RT) is best used in rectal cancer is subject to discussions and guidelines differ. To understand the selection mechanisms, we analysed treatment decisions in all patients diagnosed between 2010-2020 in two Swedish regions (Uppsala with a RT department and Dalarna without). Information on staging and treatment (direct surgery, short-course RT, or combinations of RT/chemotherapy) in the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry were used. Staging magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) permitted a division into risk groups, according to national guidelines. Logistic regression explored associations between baseline characteristics and treatment, while Cohen's kappa tested congruence between clinical and pathologic stages. A total of 1150 patients without synchronous metastases were analysed. Patients from Dalarna were older, had less advanced tumours and were pre-treated less often (52% vs. 63%, p < 0.001). All MRI characteristics (T-/N-stage, MRF, EMVI) and tumour levels were important for treatment choice. Age affected if chemotherapy was added. The correlation between clinical and pathological T-stage was fair/moderate and poor for N-stage. The MRI-based risk grouping influenced treatment choice the most. Since the risk grouping was modified to diminish the pre-treated proportion, fewer patients were irradiated with time. MRI staging is far from optimal. A stronger wish to decrease irradiation may explain why fewer patients from Dalarna were irradiated, but inequality in health care cannot be ruled out.

Associations between Response to Commonly Used Neo-Adjuvant Schedules in Rectal Cancer and Routinely Collected Clinical and Imaging Parameters

Complete pathological response (pCR) is achieved in 10−20% of rectal cancers when treated with short-course radiotherapy (scRT) or long-course chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and in 28% with total neoadjuvant therapy (scRT/CRT + CTX). pCR is associated with better outcomes and a “watch-and-wait” strategy (W&W). The aim of this study was to identify baseline clinical or imaging factors predicting pCR. All patients with preoperative treatment and delays to surgery in Uppsala-Dalarna (n = 359) and Stockholm (n = 635) were included. Comparison of pCR versus non-pCR was performed with binary logistic regression models. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) models for predicting pCR were built using factors with p < 0.10 in multivariate analyses. A pCR was achieved in 12% of the 994 patients (scRT 8% [33/435], CRT 13% [48/358], scRT/CRT + CTX 21% [43/201]). In univariate and multivariate analyses, choice of CRT (OR 2.62; 95%CI 1.34−5.14, scRT reference) or scRT/CRT + CTX (4.70; 2.23−9.93), cT1−2 (3.37; 1.30−8.78; cT4 reference), tumour length ≤ 3.5 cm (2.27; 1.24−4.18), and CEA ≤ 5 µg/L (1.73; 1.04−2.90) demonstrated significant associations with achievement of pCR. Age < 70 years, time from radiotherapy to surgery > 11 weeks, leucocytes ≤ 109/L, and thrombocytes ≤ 4009/L were significant only in univariate analyses. The associations were not fundamentally different between treatments. A model including T-stage, tumour length, CEA, and leucocytes (with scores of 0, 0.5, or 1 for each factor, maximum 4 points) showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 (95%CI 0.60−0.71) for all patients, and 0.65−0.73 for the three treatments separately. The choice of neoadjuvant treatment in combination with low CEA, short tumour length, low cT-stage, and normal leucocytes provide support in predicting pCR and, thus, could offer guidance for selecting patients for organ preservation.

Identifying the long-term survival beneficiary of chemotherapy for stage N1c sigmoid colon cancer

Sigmoid colon cancer often has an unsatisfactory prognosis. This study explored the effect of tumor deposits (TDs) on survival, and whether their presence/absence influence individualized treatment. Data of postoperative patients with sigmoid colon cancer were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and prognostic factors were identified using Cox regression analysis and random forest (RF). The nomogram's discrimination performance was evaluated using a concordance index (C-index), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis. The N1c group showed a worse prognosis than the N0 group. For N1c patients, a combination of surgery and chemotherapy prolonged survival, compared to surgery alone; however, the chemotherapy-surgery combination did not affect the OS of patients younger than 70 years, in stage T1-2, and/or of black race. Multivariable analysis and RF presented Age, T stage, and N stage were the most important predictors for OS. The novel nomogram had superiority to the TNM staging system with improved C-index and IDI, as well as good consistency and higher clinical benefit. TDs are associated with poor survival from sigmoid colon cancer, and considering TDs can inform the formulation of individual treatment regimens. The nomogram shows satisfactory prediction ability for OS.

H3K27me3 Immunohistochemical Loss Predicts Lower Response to Neo-Adjuvant Chemo-Radiotherapy in Rectal Carcinoma

A watch-and-wait approach was suggested to avoid the possible complications related to surgery in patients with rectal carcinoma showing clinical complete response after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (CRT). Since clinical response may not correlate with pathological response, markers with higher accuracy are needed to identify patients who are likely responders and could be spared surgery. This study aims to assess whether H3K27me3 immunohistochemical expression in pre-treatment rectal carcinoma predicts response to neoadjuvant CRT or shows prognostic relevance. We assessed H3K27me3 immunostaining in 46 endoscopic biopsies of rectal carcinomas treated with neoadjuvant CRT and surgery. H3K27me3 immunostaining was lost in 20, retained in 19, and inconclusive (absent in neoplastic and non-neoplastic cells) in 7 cases. Retained H3K27me3 immuno-expression was significantly associated with ypTNM stage 0 (p = 0.0111) and high tumor regression, measured using either five-tiered (p = 0.0042) or two-tiered Dworak tumor regression grade (p = 0.0009). Poor differentiation, determined counting the number of poorly differentiated clusters (PDC grade) or tumor budding (TB) foci (TB grade), in the pre-treatment biopsy, was significantly associated with a shorter time to progression after surgery (p = 0.008; p = 0.0093). However, only PDC grade (p = 0.0023), together with radial margin involvement (p = 0.0001), retained prognostic significance in the multivariate analysis. The assessment of H3K27me3 immunostaining in pre-treatment endoscopic biopsy of rectal carcinoma could be useful to predict response to neo-adjuvant CRT and to identify patients who could safely undergo watch-and-wait approach. PDC and TB grade in the pre-treatment biopsy could provide additional prognostic information in patients with rectal carcinoma treated with neoadjuvant CRT and surgery.

Predicting response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer: from biomarkers to tumor models

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major contributor to cancer-associated morbidity worldwide and over one-third of CRC is located in the rectum. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgical resection is commonly applied to treat locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). In this review, we summarize current and novel concepts of neoadjuvant therapy for LARC such as total neoadjuvant therapy and describe how these developments impact treatment response. Moreover, as response to nCRT is highly divergent in rectal cancers, we discuss the role of potential predictive biomarkers. We review recent advances in biomarker discovery, from a clinical as well as a histopathological and molecular perspective. Furthermore, the role of emerging predictive biomarkers derived from the tumor environment such as immune cell composition and gut microbiome is presented. Finally, we describe how different tumor models such as patient-derived cancer organoids are used to identify novel predictive biomarkers for chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in rectal cancer.

Total Neoadjuvant Therapy Is a Predictor for Complete Pathological Response in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Rectal Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) is a new therapeutic strategy in patients with rectal cancer. We examined the role of TNT, in addition to other pre-operative factors, as a predictor for pathologic complete response (pCR).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of all rectal cancer patients who underwent surgery between 2016 and 2021 was conducted. Patients were classified into two groups-pCR group and residual tumor group. Patient data were reviewed and entered into univariate and multivariate analyses to determine predictors of pCR.

RESULTS

A total of 172 patients were treated with neoadjuvant therapy and underwent surgery during the study period. Sixty patients (34.9%) were treated with TNT while 112 (65.1%) were treated with traditional neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The overall pCR rate was 25.6% (44 patients), with 31.6% (19 patients) in patients who received TNT compared to 22.3% (25 patients) in patients who received neoadjuvant chemoradiation (NCRT). Univariate analysis of clinical and radiological factors correlated with pCR demonstrated no significant differences between the two groups in cT stage (p = 0.46), cN stage (p = 0.52), positive circumferential resection margin (CRM) (p = 0.72), tumor location (p = 0.35), symptomatic presentation (p = 0.09), and anal sphincter involvement (p = 0.68). Multivariate logistic analysis demonstrated that only pre-operative TNT (OR:2.35; 95% CI 1.06-5.25; p = 0.03) was predictive of pCR, while extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) was a predictor for lower rates of pCR (OR: 0.28; 95% CI 0.09-0.9; p = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Rectal cancer patients undergoing TNT prior to surgery have a higher chance of developing a complete pathologic response. Evaluation of this therapy should be continued and extended to larger numbers of patients to see if the differences we observed are real.

OUP accepted manuscript

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Associations between clinical characteristics and tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer

Following standard neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision, some patients with locally advanced rectal cancer achieve good response (pathological T0-2N0), while others show nonresponse (pathological T3-4N0 or node-positive). To date, the clinicopathological predictors of good response and the necessity of adjuvant chemotherapy treatment (ACT) in good responders remain unclear. In this retrospective study, clinicopathological characteristics were surveyed to investigate the correlation with good response; furthermore, a propensity score matching (PSM) model was designed to balance the confounding factors between good responders treated with ACT or observation. A total of 2255 patients were enrolled, including 1069 good responders and 1186 nonresponders. The results of the survival analysis showed a good response predicted a better 3-year prognosis (p < 0.001). The logistic regression analysis showed less advanced T and N stages (T3 vs. T4; N0 vs. N1-2), more neoadjuvant chemotherapy (nCT) cycles (≥4 vs. 1-3), and delayed surgery (≥8 weeks vs. <8 weeks) were independent predictors of a good response (p < 0.05). Especially, patients treated with both more nCT cycles and a delay in surgery included the greatest number of good responders (p < 0.001). For good responders, after PSM (1:3), 235 observation cases were matched to 705 ACT cases. As compared with observation, ACT had no greater impact on prognosis analysis (p > 0.05). In conclusion, more cycles of nCT and a delay in surgery predicted a better response, and the delivery of ACT might be omitted in good responders.

Watch-and-wait strategy in rectal cancer: Is there a tumour size limit? Results from two pooled prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Frequency and predictive factors for a clinical complete response (cCR) in unselected patients are unclear.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Two prospective observational studies were designed and pooled to explore predictive factors for cCR. Both studies evaluated the watch-and-wait strategy in consecutive patients; the first single-institutional study in elderly with a small tumour, the second multi-institutional study in all the patients receiving standard of care preoperative radiotherapy.

RESULTS

Four hundred and ninety patients were analysed. Short-course radiotherapy alone, or with consolidation chemotherapy or chemoradiation was given to 40.6%, 40.2% and 19.2% of the patients, respectively. The median interval from the radiation start to the first tumour response assessment was 10.2 weeks for short-course radiation and 13.2 weeks for chemoradiation. Seventy-three patients had cCR and 71 underwent w&w with the median follow-up of 24 months. The regrowth rate was 26.8%. cCR rate was 39.0% for low-risk cancer (cT1-2N0), 16.8% for intermediate-risk (cT3 with unthreatened mesorectal fascia [MRF-] or cT2N+) and 5.4% for high-risk (cT4 or MRF+). In the multivariable analysis, tumour volume (or tumour length and circumferential extent) and cN status were significant predictors for cCR. In circular cancers or with a length ≥7 cm (n = 184), cCR rate was only 2.7%, sustained cCR 1.6% and the sensitivity of cCR diagnosis 23.1%. None of 27 patients with a tumour larger than 120 cm³ achieved cCR.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering watch-and-wait strategy is questionable in patients with circular tumours or with tumour length ≥7 cm.

Resistance to Cell Death in Mucinous Colorectal Cancer-A Review

Mucinous colorectal cancer (CRC) is estimated to occur in approximately 10-15% of CRC cases and is characterized by abundant extracellular mucin. Mucinous CRC is frequently associated with resistance to apoptosis. Inferior prognosis is observed in mucinous CRC, particularly in rectal cancer and metastatic cases. Mucins are heavily glycosylated secretory or transmembrane proteins that participate in protection of the colonic epithelium. MUC2 overexpression is a hallmark of mucinous CRCs. Mucinous CRC is associated with KRAS and BRAF mutation, microsatellite instability and the CpG island methylator phenotype. Mutations of the APC gene and p53 mutations which are characteristic non-mucinous colorectal adenocarcinoma are less common in mucinous CRC. Both physical and anti-apoptotic properties of mucin provide mechanisms for resistance to cell death. Mucin glycoproteins are associated with decreased expression of pro-apoptotic proteins, increased expression of anti-apoptotic proteins and increased cell survival signaling. The role for BCL-2 proteins, including BCL-X_L, in preventing apoptosis in mucinous CRC has been explored to a limited extent. Additional mechanisms opposing cell death include altered death receptor expression and altered mutation rates in genes responsible for chemotherapy resistance. The roles of alternate cell death programs including necroptosis and pyroptosis are not well understood in mucinous CRC. While the presence of MUC2 is associated with an immunosuppressive environment, the tumor immune environment of mucinous CRC and the role of immune-mediated tumor cell death likewise require further investigation. Improved understanding of cell death mechanisms in mucinous CRC may allow modification of currently used regimens and facilitate targeted treatment.

Serum Apolipoprotein A-I Predicts Response of Rectal Cancer to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

Background

Serum lipids have been reported as prognosticators for malignancies, including rectal cancer (RC). Yet, their value in predicting the response of RC to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) remains unknown. This study aimed to assess the predictive abilities of serum lipids for a bad response, and to build a serum lipid-based prediction model.

Methods

In total, 751 patients diagnosed with stage cII–III RC and treated with NACRT plus surgery from January 2007 to August 2018 were retrospectively reviewed and randomly divided into two data sets, in a ratio of 1:1. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was conducted in the development set to select possible predictors of bad NACRT response from pathoclinical factors, including serum lipids. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to further determine independent predictors, which were then used to develop a prediction index (PI). Finally, the PI was verified in the validation set, through ROC analysis and chi-squared test.

Results

Five independent predictors were identified: tumor length ≥4 cm, cT4 stage, carcinoembryonic antigen ≥5.0 ng/mL, irradiation with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy technique, and apolipoprotein A-I ≤1.20 g/L. Each of them was assigned a number of points. In the validation set, the area under the curve of PI appeared as 0.642 (95% confidence interval 0.586–0.697). The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and concordance were 72.3%, 52.3%, 63.8%, 61.9%, and 63.0%, respectively.

Conclusion

Serum apolipoprotein A-I was found to correlate negatively with the RC response to NACRT. It could serve as a biomarker for guiding individualized treatment and a potential target for improving sensitivity to chemoradiation.