Use of Measurable Residual Disease to Evolve Transplant Policy in Acute Myeloid Leukemia: A 20-Year Monocentric Observation

Predictive Models for Long Term Survival of AML Patients Treated with Venetoclax and Azacitidine or 7+3 Based on Post Treatment Events and Responses: Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in older or unfit patients typically involves a regimen of venetoclax plus azacitidine (ven/aza). Toxicity and treatment responses are highly variable following treatment initiation and clinical decision-making continually evolves in response to these as treatment progresses. To improve clinical decision support (CDS) following treatment initiation, predictive models based on evolving and dynamic toxicities, disease responses, and other features should be developed.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to generate machine learning (ML)-based predictive models that incorporate individual predictors of overall survival (OS) for patients with AML, based on clinical events occurring after the initiation of ven/aza or 7+3 regimen.

METHODS

Data from 221 patients with AML, who received either the ven/aza (n=101 patients) or 7+3 regimen (n=120 patients) as their initial induction therapy, were retrospectively analyzed. We performed stratified univariate and multivariate analyses to quantify the association between toxicities, hospital events, and short-term disease responses and OS for the 7+3 and ven/aza subgroups separately. We compared the estimates of confounders to assess potential effect modifications by treatment. 17 ML-based predictive models were developed. The optimal predictive models were selected based on their predictability and discriminability using cross-validation. Uncertainty in the estimation was assessed through bootstrapping.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of posttreatment toxicities varies between the ven/aza and 7+3 regimen. A variety of laboratory features and clinical events during the first 30 days were differentially associated with OS for the two treatments. An initial transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) worsened OS for 7+3 patients (aHR 1.18, 95% CI 1.10-1.28), while ICU readmission adversely affected OS for those on ven/aza (aHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.37). At the initial follow-up, achieving a morphologic leukemia free state (MLFS) did not affect OS for ven/aza (aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.94-1.05), but worsened OS following 7+3 (aHR 1.16, 95% CI 1.01-1.31) compared to that of complete remission (CR). Having blasts over 5% at the initial follow-up negatively impacted OS for both 7+3 (P<.001) and ven/aza (P<.001) treated patients. A best response of CR and CR with incomplete recovery (CRi) was superior to MLFS and refractory disease after ven/aza (P<.001), whereas for 7+3, CR was superior to CRi, MLFS, and refractory disease (P<.001), indicating unequal outcomes. Treatment-specific predictive models, trained on 120 7+3 and 101 ven/aza patients using over 114 features, achieved survival AUCs over 0.70.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that toxicities, clinical events, and responses evolve differently in patients receiving ven/aza compared with that of 7+3 regimen. ML-based predictive models were shown to be a feasible strategy for CDS in both forms of AML treatment. If validated with larger and more diverse data sets, these findings could offer valuable insights for developing AML-CDS tools that leverage posttreatment clinical data.

Standardization of Molecular MRD Levels in AML Using an Integral Vector Bearing ABL and the Mutation of Interest

Quantitative PCR for specific mutation is being increasingly used in Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) to assess Measurable Residual Disease (MRD), allowing for more tailored clinical decisions. To date, standardized molecular MRD is limited to typical NPM1 mutations and core binding factor translocations, with clear prognostic and clinical implications. The monitoring of other identified mutations lacks standardization, limiting its use and incorporation in clinical trials. To overcome this problem, we designed a plasmid bearing both the sequence of the mutation of interest and the ABL reference gene. This allows the use of commercial standards for ABL to determine the MRD response in copy number. We provide technical aspects of this approach as well as our experience with 19 patients with atypical NPM1, RUNX1 and IDH1/2 mutations. In all cases, we demonstrate a correlation between response and copy number. We further demonstrate how copy number monitoring can modulate the clinical management. Taken together, we provide proof of concept of a novel yet simple tool, which allows in-house MRD monitoring for identified mutations, with ABL-based commercial standards. This approach would facilitate large multi-center studies assessing the clinical relevance of selected MRD monitoring.

Diagnostic Workup of Acute Myeloid Leukemia: What Is Really Necessary? An Italian Survey

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disease with a wide variety of clinical presentations, morphological features, and immunophenotypes. The diagnostic approaches to AML that are adopted in Italy have been explored using an online Delphi-based process to expand the global discussion on mandatory tests for the correct diagnosis and, consequently, for optimal management of AML in clinical practice. The final results of the panel of Italian hematologists involved in this work highlight the importance of genetic evaluation for classification and risk stratification and firmly establish that karyotyping, fluorescence in situ hybridization in cases with non-evaluable karyotype, and molecular tests must be performed in every case of AML, regardless of age. Obtaining clinically relevant genetic data at diagnosis is the basis for the success of patient-tailored therapy. The Italian specialists also confirm the role of multidisciplinary diagnostics for AML, now mandatory and expected to become more important in the future context of “precision” medicine.

Prognostic significance of measurable residual disease based on multiparameter flow cytometry in childhood acute myeloid leukemia

OBJECTIVES

To study the prognostic value of measurable residual disease (MRD) for childhood acute myeloid leukemia (AML) by analyzing MRD-guided risk stratification therapy.

METHODS

A total of 93 children with AML were prospectively enrolled in this study. Chemotherapy with the 2015-AML-03 regimen was completed according to the risk stratification determined by genetic abnormality at initial diagnosis and MRD and bone marrow cytology after induction therapy I. Multiparameter flow cytometry was used to dynamically monitor MRD and analyze the prognostic effect of MRD on 3-year cumulative incidence of recurrence (CIR) rate, event-free survival (EFS) rate, and overall survival (OS) rate.

RESULTS

The 93 children with AML had a 3-year CIR rate of 48%±6%, a median time to recurrence of 11 months (range 2-32 months), a 3-year OS rate of 65%±6%, and a 3-year EFS rate of 50%±5%. After induction therapy I and intensive therapy I, the MRD-positive children had a significantly higher 3-year CIR rate and significantly lower 3-year EFS and OS rates than the MRD-negative children (P<0.05). There were no significant differences in 3-year CIR, EFS, and OS rates between the MRD-positive children with a low risk at initial diagnosis and the MRD-negative children after adjustment of chemotherapy intensity (P>0.05). The multivariate analysis showed that positive MRD after intensive treatment I was a risk factor for 3-year OS rate in children with AML (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

MRD has predictive value for the prognosis of children with AML. Based on the MRD-guided risk stratification therapy, reasonable application of chemotherapy may improve the overall prognosis of children with AML.