Pre-Transplant Alpha-Fetoprotein > 25.5 and Its Dynamic on Waitlist Are Predictors of HCC Recurrence after Liver Transplantation for Patients Meeting Milan Criteria

A novel nomogram to predict the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation using extended selection criteria

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantations (LTs) with extended criteria have produced surgical results comparable to those obtained with traditional standards. However, it is not sufficient to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after LT according to morphological criteria alone. The present study aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting HCC recurrence after LT using extended selection criteria.

METHODS

Retrospective data on patients with HCC, including pathology, serological markers and follow-up data, were collected from January 2015 to April 2020 at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify and construct the prognostic nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Kaplan-Meier curves, decision curve analyses (DCAs), calibration diagrams, net reclassification indices (NRIs) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) values were used to assess the prognostic capacity of the nomogram.

RESULTS

A total of 301 patients with HCC who underwent LT were enrolled in the study. The nomogram was constructed, and the ROC curve showed good performance in predicting survival in both the development set (2/3) and the validation set (1/3) (the area under the curve reached 0.748 and 0.716, respectively). According to the median value of the risk score, the patients were categorized into the high- and low-risk groups, which had significantly different recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates (P < 0.01). Compared with the Milan criteria and University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, DCA revealed that the new nomogram model had the best net benefit in predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year RFS. The nomogram performed well for calibration, NRI and IDI improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram, based on the Milan criteria and serological markers, showed good accuracy in predicting the recurrence of HCC after LT using extended selection criteria.

Evaluation of Overall Survival and Disease-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Comparison of Living Versus Deceased Donor Liver Transplants: Results of 15 Years of Experience

OBJECTIVE

Research comparing patients who received liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has produced varying outcomes regarding survival and disease-free survival. The objective of this study is to determine the factors that influence the disease-free and overall survivals of those who have undergone LT for HCC and to compare the outcomes of living versus deceased donor liver transplants.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data on patients aged 18 and above who received LT for HCC from 2006 to 2022. Patients with a follow-up period of less than 6 months and who did not meet the University of California San Francisco criteria were excluded. The data from 58 patients were analyzed. We split the patients into living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) (group 1) and deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) (group 2).

RESULTS

The mean age was 56 ± 8.1 years. There were 49 males and 9 females. The median of the alphafetoprotein (AFP) level and model for end-stage liver disease score was 10.1 ng/mL and 11, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year disease-free survival rates were 86%, 76.5%, 76.5%, and 76.5%, respectively. The survival rates for the same periods were 94.8%, 74.9%, 70.6%, and 67.4%. The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that AFP > 31.8 ng/mL and a total tumor size >3.85 cm raise the likelihood of HCC recurrence post-LT.

CONCLUSION

Based on the current literature, the overall survival and disease-free survival rates are influenced by factors such as AFP value, total tumor number, and total tumor diameter. In our study, the AFP value and total tumor size had an impact on the recurrence of HCC, and the survival rates were comparable on LDLT and DDLT.

Discordance among aggressiveness characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma: Portal vein thrombosis and multifocality, related to tumor size, but not to serum alpha-fetoprotein level

Background and aims

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is characterized by several clinically important prognostic parameters, including portal vein thrombosis (PVT), tumor multifocality, and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, in addition to maximum tumor diameter (MTD). However, associations among these parameters have not been thoroughly examined. Thus, the study aimed to investigate the correlations among these HCC characteristics in a prospectively collected database.

Methods

An 8080 HCC patient database derived from our weekly HCC council meeting was examined with respect to the correlations at baseline patient presentation between increases in MTD and changes in the percentage of patients with PVT, multifocality, or AFP levels.

Results

The percentage of patients with PVT and with multifocality (tumor nodule numbers ≥3) significantly increased with enlarging MTD, regardless of the serum AFP level, showing the independence of PVT and multifocality on AFP. The percentage of patients with multifocality increased with enlarging MTD, in the presence or absence of PVT, showing the independence of multifocality from PVT. Therefore, discordance was found between different tumor parameters.

Conclusions

A statistically significant association was found between PVT and MTD and between multifocality and MTD, all three of which are independent of AFP. PVT and multifocality appeared to be independent of each other. Although PVT and multifocality were independent of AFP, they were also augmented with high serum AFP levels. The results suggest the possibility of multiple pathways of tumor progression in the later stages of HCC development.

Prolonged Survival after Recurrence in HCC Resected Patients Using Repeated Curative Therapies: Never Give Up!

Surgical resection is the optimal treatment for HCC, despite a high risk of recurrence. Few data are available on patient’s survival after resection. This is a retrospective study of tumor recurrence occurring after hepatectomy for HCC from 2000 to 2016. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors of survival after recurrence (SAR). Among 387 patients, 226 recurred (58.4%) with a median SAR of 26 months. Curative treatments (liver transplantation, repeat hepatectomy, thermal ablation) were performed for 44.7% of patients. Independent prognostic factors for SAR were micro-vascular invasion on the primary surgical specimen, size of the initial tumor >5 cm, preoperative AFP, albumin and platelet levels, male gender, number, size and localization of tumors at recurrence, time to recurrence, Child−Pugh score and treatment at recurrence. In subgroup analysis, early recurrence (46%) was associated with a decrease in SAR, by contrast with late recurrence. However, the overall survival (OS) of patients with early recurrence and curative treatment did not significantly differ from that of non-recurring patients. For late recurrence, OS did not significantly differ from that of non-recurring patients, regardless of the proposed treatment. Aggressive and repeat treatments are therefore key to improve prognosis of patients with HCC.

How important is the role of iterative liver direct surgery in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for a transplant center located in an area with a low rate of deceased donation?

Introduction

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for nearly 90% of primary liver cancers, with estimates of over 1 million people affected by 2025. We aimed to explore the impacting role of an iterative surgical treatment approach in a cohort of HCC patients within the Milan criteria, associated with clinical risk factors for tumor recurrence (RHCC) after liver transplant (LT) and loco-regional therapies (LRT), as well as liver resection (LR) and/or microwave thermal ablation (MWTA).

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed our experience performed during an 8-year period between January 2013 and December 2021 in patients treated for HCC, focusing on describing the impact on preoperative end-stage liver disease severity, oncologic staging, tumor characteristics, and surgical treatments. The Cox model was used to evaluate variables that could predict relapse risks. Relapse risk curves were calculated according to the Kaplan–Meier method, and the log-rank test was used to compare them.

Results

There were 557 HCC patients treated with a first-line approach of LR and/or LRTs (n = 335) or LT (n = 222). The median age at initial transplantation was 59 versus 68 for those whose first surgical approach was LR and/or LRT. In univariate analysis with the Cox model, nodule size was the single predictor of recurrence of HCC in the posttreatment setting (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.05–2.47, p = 0.030). For the LRT group, we have enlightened the following clinical characteristics as significantly associated with RHCC: hepatitis B virus infection (which has a protective role with HR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.13–0.94, p = 0.038), number of HCC nodules (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.22–1.94, p &lt; 0.001), size of the largest nodule (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.12, p = 0.023), serum bilirubin (HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.03–2.40, p = 0.038), and international normalized ratio (HR: 16.40, 95% CI: 2.30–118.0, p = 0.006). Among the overall 111 patients with RHCC in the LRT group, 33 were iteratively treated with further curative treatment (12 were treated with LR, two with MWTA, three with a combined LR-MWTA treatment, and 16 underwent LT). Only one of 18 recurrent patients previously treated with LT underwent LR. For these RHCC patients, multivariable analysis showed the protective roles of LT for primary RHCC after IDLS (HR: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.01–0.36, p = 0.002), of the time relapsed between the first and second IDLS treatments (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94–0.99, p = 0.044), and the impact of previous minimally invasive treatment (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.08–1.00, p = 0.051).

Conclusion

The coexistence of RHCC with underlying cirrhosis increases the complexity of assessing the net health benefit of ILDS before LT. Minimally invasive surgical therapies and time to HCC relapse should be considered an outcome in randomized clinical trials because they have a relevant impact on tumor-free survival.