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van Duin IAJ, Verheijden RJ, van Diest PJ, Blokx WAM, El-Sharouni MA, Verhoeff JJC, Leiner T, van den Eertwegh AJM, de Groot JWB, van Not OJ, Aarts MJB, van den Berkmortel FWPJ, Blank CU, Haanen JBAG, Hospers GAP, Piersma D, van Rijn RS, van der Veldt AAM, Vreugdenhil G, Wouters MWJM, Stevense-den Boer MAM, Boers-Sonderen MJ, Kapiteijn E, Suijkerbuijk KPM, Elias SG. A prediction model for response to immune checkpoint inhibition in advanced melanoma. Int J Cancer 2024; 154:1760-1771. [PMID: 38296842 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2023] [Revised: 11/01/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 02/02/2024]
Abstract
Predicting who will benefit from treatment with immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) in patients with advanced melanoma is challenging. We developed a multivariable prediction model for response to ICI, using routinely available clinical data including primary melanoma characteristics. We used a population-based cohort of 3525 patients with advanced cutaneous melanoma treated with anti-PD-1-based therapy. Our prediction model for predicting response within 6 months after ICI initiation was internally validated with bootstrap resampling. Performance evaluation included calibration, discrimination and internal-external cross-validation. Included patients received anti-PD-1 monotherapy (n = 2366) or ipilimumab plus nivolumab (n = 1159) in any treatment line. The model included serum lactate dehydrogenase, World Health Organization performance score, type and line of ICI, disease stage and time to first distant recurrence-all at start of ICI-, and location and type of primary melanoma, the presence of satellites and/or in-transit metastases at primary diagnosis and sex. The over-optimism adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64-0.66). The range of predicted response probabilities was 7%-81%. Based on these probabilities, patients were categorized into quartiles. Compared to the lowest response quartile, patients in the highest quartile had a significantly longer median progression-free survival (20.0 vs 2.8 months; P < .001) and median overall survival (62.0 vs 8.0 months; P < .001). Our prediction model, based on routinely available clinical variables and primary melanoma characteristics, predicts response to ICI in patients with advanced melanoma and discriminates well between treated patients with a very good and very poor prognosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabella A J van Duin
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Rik J Verheijden
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Paul J van Diest
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Willeke A M Blokx
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Mary-Ann El-Sharouni
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Joost J C Verhoeff
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Tim Leiner
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Alfonsus J M van den Eertwegh
- Department of Medical Oncology, Amsterdam UMC, VU University Medical Center, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Olivier J van Not
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Scientific Bureau, Dutch Institute for Clinical Auditing, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Maureen J B Aarts
- Department of Medical Oncology, GROW-School for Oncology and Reproduction, Maastricht University Medical Centre+, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Christian U Blank
- Department of Molecular Oncology & Immunology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - John B A G Haanen
- Department of Molecular Oncology & Immunology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Geke A P Hospers
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Djura Piersma
- Department of Internal Medicine, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
| | - Rozemarijn S van Rijn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Medical Centre Leeuwarden, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands
| | - Astrid A M van der Veldt
- Department of Medical Oncology and Radiology & Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Gerard Vreugdenhil
- Department of Internal Medicine, Maxima Medical Centre, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
| | - Michel W J M Wouters
- Scientific Bureau, Dutch Institute for Clinical Auditing, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Marye J Boers-Sonderen
- Department of Medical Oncology, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Ellen Kapiteijn
- Department of Medical Oncology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Karijn P M Suijkerbuijk
- Department of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Sjoerd G Elias
- Department of Epidemiology, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Janka EA, Ványai B, Szabó IL, Toka-Farkas T, Várvölgyi T, Kapitány A, Szegedi A, Emri G. Primary tumour category, site of metastasis, and baseline serum S100B and LDH are independent prognostic factors for survival in metastatic melanoma patients treated with anti-PD-1. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1237643. [PMID: 37664072 PMCID: PMC10472446 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1237643] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Prognostic classification of metastatic melanoma patients treated with anti-PD-1 is of great interest to clinicians. Objective We aimed to determine the anti-PD-1 treatment related prognostic performance of demographics, clinical and histological prognostic markers and baseline serum S100B and LDH levels in advanced melanoma. Methods A total of 200 patients with unresectable metastatic melanoma were included in this retrospective study. 34.5% had stage M1c disease and 11.5% had stage M1d disease at the start of therapy. 30% had pT4b primary melanoma. 55.5% had elevated baseline serum S100B levels and 62.5% had elevated baseline serum LDH levels. We analysed the risk of death using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards models and the median overall (OS) and progression-free (PFS) survival using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Results The median follow-up time from the start of anti-PD-1 treatment in patients who were alive at the end of the study (N=81) was 37 months (range: 6.1-95.9). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that M1c stage (vs. M1a, p=0.005) or M1d stage at the start of therapy (vs. M1a, p=0.001), pT4b category (vs. pT1a, p=0.036), elevated baseline serum S100B levels (vs. normal S100B, p=0.008) and elevated LDH levels (vs. normal LDH, p=0.049) were independently associated with poor survival. The combination of M1d stage, elevated baseline serum S100B and LDH levels and pT4b category was associated with a very high risk of death (HR 4.72 [1.81; 12.33]). In the subgroup of patients with pT4b primary melanoma, the median OS of patients with normal serum S100B levels was 37.25 months [95% CI 11.04; 63.46]), while the median OS of patients with elevated serum S100B levels was 8.00 months [95% CI 3.49; 12.51]) (p<0.001); the median OS of patients with normal serum LDH levels was 41.82 months [95% CI 11.33; 72.32]), while the median OS of patients with elevated serum LDH levels was 12.29 months [95% CI 4.35; 20.23]) (p=0.002). Conclusion Our real-world study indicates that the prognostic role of primary melanoma parameters is preserved in anti-PD-1 treated stage IV patients. Furthermore, there seems to be perspective in combining clinical, histological and serum prognostic markers in a prognostic model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eszter Anna Janka
- Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
- ELKH-DE Allergology Research Group, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Beatrix Ványai
- Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
- Doctoral School of Health Sciences, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Imre Lőrinc Szabó
- Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Tünde Toka-Farkas
- Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Tünde Várvölgyi
- Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Anikó Kapitány
- Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
- ELKH-DE Allergology Research Group, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Andrea Szegedi
- Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
- ELKH-DE Allergology Research Group, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Gabriella Emri
- Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
- ELKH-DE Allergology Research Group, Debrecen, Hungary
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