Promises and Challenges of Predictive Blood Biomarkers for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated with Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Based on DCE-MRI Radiomics for Predicting Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1α Expression in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The expression levels of hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF-1α) have been identified as a pivotal marker, correlating with treatment response in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) radiomics and clinical features for predicting the expression of HIF-1α in patients with LARC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 102 patients diagnosed with locally advanced rectal cancer were divided into training (n = 71) and validation (n = 31) cohorts. The expression statuses of HIF-1α were histopathologically classified, categorizing patients into high and low expression groups. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were employed for feature selection to construct a radiomics signature and calculate the radiomics score (Rad-score). Univariate and multivariate analyses of clinical features and Rad-score were applied, and the clinical model and the nomogram were constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram incorporating clinical features and Rad-score was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves.

RESULTS

Seven radiomics features from DCE-MRI were used to build the radiomics signature. The nomogram incorporating CEA, Ki-67 and Rad-score had the highest AUC values in the training cohort and in the validation cohort (AUC: 0.918 and 0.920). Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram outperformed the clinical model and radiomics signature in terms of clinical utility. In addition, the calibration curve for the nomogram demonstrated good agreement between prediction and actual observation.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on DCE-MRI radiomics and clinical features showed favorable predictive efficacy and might be useful for preoperatively discriminating the expression of HIF-1α.

Quantitative analysis of contrast-enhanced ultrasound in neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer: a retrospective study

Purpose

To explore the clinical value of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) quantitative analysis in the evaluation and prognosis of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

Methods

Eighty-three consecutive patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision for LARC were retrospectively included. According to pathological results, patients were categorized into complete or incomplete response groups. Differences in ultrasonic parameters, pathological results, and clinical data between groups were evaluated. The cutoff point for a complete response as determined by quantitative analysis of CEUS was assessed using a receiver operating characteristic curve; additionally, overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed.

Results

Of the 83 patients, 12 (14.5%) achieved a complete response and 71 (85.5%) did not. There were significant between-group differences in carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, differentiation degree, proportion of tumor occupying the lumen, anterior-posterior and superior-inferior diameters of the lesion, and intensity of enhancement (P<0.05). CEUS quantitative analysis showed significant between-group differences in peak intensity (PI) and area under the curve (AUC) values (P<0.05). The OS and PFS of patients with high PI, high AUC value, and poorly differentiated cancer were significantly worse than those with low PI, low AUC values, and moderately to highly differentiated cancer (P<0.05). High CEA levels (hazard ratio: 1.02, 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.04; P=0.002) and low differentiation (2.72, 1.12-6.62; P=0.028) were independent risk factors for PFS and OS.

Conclusions

CEUS can predict the response to neoadjuvant treatment in patients with LARC. CEUS quantitative analysis is helpful for clinical prognosis.

Prognostic value of the ratio of pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen to tumor volume in rectal cancer

Background

As a commonly used biomarker in rectal cancer (RC), the prognostic value of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) remains underexplored. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic value of pretreatment CEA/tumor volume in RC.

Methods

This retrospective study included patients who underwent pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with histologically confirmed primary rectal adenocarcinoma from November 2012 to April 2018. Patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the median values of CEA/Diapath (CEA to pathological diameter), CEA/DiaMRI (CEA to MRI tumor diameter), and CEA/VolMRI (CEA to MRI tumor volume). Cox regression analysis was utilized to determine the prognostic value of CEA, CEA/Diapath, CEA/DiaMRI, and CEA/VolMRI. Stepwise regression was used to establish nomograms for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictive performance was estimated by using the concordance index (C-index) and area under curve receiver operating characteristic (AUC).

Results

A total of 343 patients [median age 58.99 years, 206 (60.06%) males] were included. After adjusting for patient-related and tumor-related factors, CEA/VolMRI was superior to CEA, CEA/Diapath, and CEA/DiaMRI in distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients in terms of DFS [hazard ratio (HR) =1.83; P=0.010] and OS (HR =1.67; P=0.048). Subanalysis revealed that CEA/VolMRI stratified high death risk in CEA-negative individuals (HR =2.50; P=0.038), and also stratified low recurrence risk in CEA-positive individuals (HR =2.06; P=0.024). In the subanalysis of stage II or III cases, the highest HRs and the smallest P values were observed in distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients according to CEA/VolMRI in terms of DFS (HR =2.44; P=0.046 or HR =2.41; P=0.001) and OS (HR =1.96; P=0.130 or HR =2.22; P=0.008). The nomograms incorporating CEA/VolMRI showed good performance, with a C-index of 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.79] for DFS and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.80) for OS.

Conclusions

Higher CEA/VolMRI was associated with worse DFS and OS. CEA/VolMRI was superior to CEA, CEA/Diapath, and CEA/DiaMRI in predicting DFS and OS. Pretreatment CEA/VolMRI may facilitate risk stratification and treatment decision-making.

Multiphase and multiparameter MRI-based radiomics for prediction of tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

To develop and validate radiomics models for prediction of tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) using both pre-NAT and post-NAT multiparameter magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI).

METHODS

In this multicenter study, a total of 563 patients were included from two independent centers. 453 patients from center 1 were split into training and testing cohorts, the remaining 110 from center 2 served as an external validation cohort. Pre-NAT and post-NAT mpMRI was collected for feature extraction. The radiomics models were constructed using machine learning from a training cohort. The accuracy of the models was verified in a testing cohort and an independent external validation cohort. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value.

RESULTS

The model constructed with pre-NAT mpMRI had favorable accuracy for prediction of non-response to NAT in the training cohort (AUC = 0.84), testing cohort (AUC = 0.81), and external validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The model constructed with both pre-NAT and post-NAT mpMRI had powerful diagnostic value for pathologic complete response in the training cohort (AUC = 0.86), testing cohort (AUC = 0.87), and external validation cohort (AUC = 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Models constructed with multiphase and multiparameter MRI were able to predict tumor response to NAT with high accuracy and robustness, which may assist in individualized management of LARC.