Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature Variability in Afghanistan during 2000–2021

Effect of land use and land cover changes on land surface warming in an intensive agricultural region

Deforestation and alterations in land use are key factors contributing to rises in both local and global temperatures. However, the effect of these alterations on land surface temperature (LST) remains understudied in many areas that have experienced significant changes in land use. To address this gap, a spatial and temporal evaluation of land use and land cover (LULC) was performed to identify potential changes in LST using satellite imagery and statistical analysis. This study focused on the central and northern zones of Sinaloa, Mexico, an agriculturally important region where cultivated land has expanded in recent years, covering the period from 1993 to 2017. The results demonstrated that the study area exhibited an increase in LST over time, which was strongly linked to the expansion of agricultural land. The least-squares method also demonstrated warming trends in both the winter and summer seasons. An increasing rate of 0.1672 °C/year was found in winter, while a LST value of 0.1176 °C/year was found in summer. Warming areas were identified in the foothill regions and an increase in LST in mountain ranges was observed, where a loss of low deciduous forest cover was detected.

Spatiotemporal changes in future precipitation of Afghanistan for shared socioeconomic pathways

Global warming induces spatially heterogeneous changes in precipitation patterns, highlighting the need to assess these changes at regional scales. This assessment is particularly critical for Afghanistan, where agriculture serves as the primary livelihood for the population. New global climate model (GCM) simulations have recently been released for the recently established shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This requires evaluating projected precipitation changes under these new scenarios and subsequent policy updates. This research employed six GCMs from the CMIP6 to project spatial and temporal precipitation changes across Afghanistan under all SSPs, including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The employed GCMs were bias-corrected using the Global Precipitation Climatological Center's (GPCC) monthly gridded precipitation data with a 1.0° spatial resolution. Subsequently, the climate change factor was calculated to assess precipitation changes for both the near future (2020-2059) and the distant future (2060-2099). The bias-corrected projections' multi-model ensemble (MME) revealed increased precipitation across most of Afghanistan for SSPs with higher emissions scenarios. The bias-corrected simulations showed a substantial increase in summer precipitation of around 50%, projected under SSP1-1.9 in the southwestern region, while a decline of over 50% is projected in the northwestern region until 2100. The annual precipitation in the northwest region was projected to increase up to 15% for SSP1-2.6. SSP2-4.5 showed a projected annual precipitation increase of around 20% in the southwestern and certain eastern regions in the far future. Furthermore, a substantial rise of approximately 50% in summer precipitation under SSP3-7.0 is expected in the central and western regions in the far future. However, it is crucial to note that the projected changes exhibit considerable uncertainty among different GCMs.