Multi-Decadal Trend and Decadal Variability of the Regional Sea Level over the Indian Ocean since the 1960s: Roles of Climate Modes and External Forcing

A century-long eddy-resolving simulation of global oceanic large- and mesoscale state

Investigating oceanic variations at multiple spatial and temporal scales is vital for an in-depth understanding of the ocean response to global climate change. However, the available observational datasets contain uncertainties and deficiencies that leave them insufficient for investigating global ocean variability with long temporal scales and/or meso spatial scales. Here, we present a daily and century-long (1901–2010) global oceanic simulation dataset with high resolution (1/10° horizontal resolution and 55 vertical layers) forced by 6-hour atmospheric data from ERA-20C. Preliminary evaluations demonstrate that this simulation can realistically reproduce the large-scale global ocean circulation and capture the essential features of global surface mesoscale eddies. This long-running high-resolution simulation dataset provides temporally highly resolved oceanic and flux variables. Together with its good performance in simulating the global oceanic state, this eddy-resolving simulation has the potential to help toward a better understanding of ocean variability at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

The Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño Southern Oscillation as major drivers of coral cover on shallow reefs in the Andaman Sea

Shallow reefs are a major feature of coral assemblages in the Andaman Sea. At Phuket, Thailand sheltered reefs are dominated by massive corals, together with an increasing abundance of branching species during favourable growth conditions. The growth of coral on these reefs is moderated by long-term increases in sea temperature and relative sea level but fluctuating decadal/intradecadal climate processes of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which modulate sea level and temperature, are the main drivers of coral cover. In this study, the contribution of these two climate processes was identified and also quantified. Over a 34-year study of fluctuating coral cover, the three major reductions in cover in 1997, 2010 and 2019 were linked to overlapping positive IOD (pIOD) and El Niños in 1997 and 2019, and with an El Niño alone in 2010. Combined pIOD and El Niño depressed sea level was the major factor in reducing cover in 1997 while El Niño extreme sea temperatures were responsible for large reductions in 2010. In 2019, a bi-phasic pIOD and El Niño resulted in lowered cover at a time of both decreased sea level and high sea temperature. Under global warming scenarios, it is projected that extreme pIODs, such as those seen in 1997 and 2019, will occur more frequently while El Niño frequencies will continue to increase even after global mean temperature stabilization. In these circumstances, and with steadily rising background sea temperatures, the future risks to the shallow reefs of the Andaman Sea are substantial, despite any temporary respite gained from climate related or land subsidence sea-level rise. Such findings have wider implications for all reefs affected by climatic-driven sea-level depressions, particularly those around Indonesian shores where similar El-Niño-related reductions in coral cover have been reported.

Analyzing the Effects of Short-Term Persistence and Shift in Sea Level Records along the US Coast

Is sea level change affected by the presence of autocorrelation and abrupt shift? This question reflects the importance of trend and shift detection analysis in sea level. The primary factor driving the global sea level rise is often related to climate change. The current study investigates the changes in sea level along the US coast. The sea level records of 59 tide gauge data were used to evaluate the trend, shift, and persistence using non-parametric statistical tests. Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests were utilized to estimate gradual trends and abrupt shifts, respectively. The study also assessed the presence of autocorrelation in sea level records and its effect on both trend and shift was examined along the US coast. The presence of short-term persistence was found in 57 stations and the trend significance of most stations was not changed at a 95% confidence level. Total of 25 stations showed increasing shift between 1990–2000 that was evaluated from annual sea level records. Results from the current study may contribute to understanding sea level variability across the contiguous US. This study extends an elaborative understanding of sea level trends and shifts which might be useful for water managers.

Increasing Trend on Storm Wave Intensity in the Western Mediterranean

Annual trends in storm wave intensity over the past 41 years were evaluated during the present study. Storm wave intensity is evaluated in terms of total storm wave energy (TSWE) and storm power index (SPI) of Dolan and Davis (1992). Using an accurate long-term wave hindcast developed using a calibrated SWAN model, all storm wave events occurring over the past 41 years were characterized in terms of significant wave height (Hs) and total storm duration. Thus, both SPI and TSWE was computed for each storm wave event. The Theil–Sen slope estimator was used to estimate the annual slopes of the SPI and TSWE and the Mann–Kendall test was used to test the trend significance with different confidence levels. The present study is spatially performed for the western Mediterranean Sea basin considering 2308 grid points in a regular grid of 0.198° resolution in both directions. Results allow as to define five hotspots covering a large area, experienced a significant increasing slope in both SPI and TSWE (annual maxima and average). The confidence level in this area exceed 95%, with a steep slope between 100 kWh·m−1·year−1 and 240 kWh·m−1·year−1 for annual max TSWE and between 28 m²·h·year−1 and 49 m²·h·year−1 for annual max SPI. Consideration of the present findings is strongly recommended for risk assessment and for sustainable development in coastal and offshore area and to identify areas sensitive to global climate change in the western Mediterranean Sea.

Possible implications of sea level changes for species migration through the Suez Canal

The Mediterranean and Red Sea, which were connected via the Suez Canal during the 19th century after eons of separation, host two distinctive ecosystems. Species invasion through the Suez Canal from the Red Sea vastly influences the ecology of the Mediterranean, but the level of reverse migration is assumed to be negligible. We present the first reconstructed flow transport record through the canal during the period 1923-2016. According to this reconstruction, the flow intensity and direction through the canal are strongly influenced by seasonal and long-term sea-level changes, which could also play a role in the characteristics of species migration through it. Our record not only supports previous observations of the unidirectional invasion until the 1980s and the accelerated species migration rates to the Mediterranean ever since, but also suggest that southward migration could have become possible since the early 1980s. The southward flow was primarily enhanced by Indian Ocean cooling and the Eastern Mediterranean Transition in deep water formation during the period 1980-2000. It was then gradually reduced by accelerated sea-level rise in the northern Indian Ocean.

Impacts of Basin-Scale Climate Modes on Coastal Sea Level: a Review

Global sea level rise (SLR) associated with a warming climate exerts significant stress on coastal societies and low-lying island regions. The rates of coastal SLR observed in the past few decades, however, have large spatial and temporal differences from the global mean, which to a large part have been attributed to basin-scale climate modes. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about climate modes' impacts on coastal sea level variability from interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Relevant climate modes, their impacts and associated driving mechanisms through both remote and local processes are elaborated separately for the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans. This paper also identifies major issues and challenges for future research on climate modes' impacts on coastal sea level. Understanding the effects of climate modes is essential for skillful near-term predictions and reliable uncertainty quantifications for future projections of coastal SLR.

Natural Variability and Vertical Land Motion Contributions in the Mediterranean Sea-Level Records over the Last Two Centuries and Projections for 2100

We analyzed a set of geodetic data to investigate the contribution of local factors, namely the sea level natural variability (SLNV) and the vertical land motion (VLM), to the sea-level trend. The SLNV is analyzed through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) on tidal data (>60 years of recordings) and results are used to evaluate its effects on sea levels. The VLM is measured at a set of continuous GPS (cGPS) stations (>5 years of recordings), located nearby the tide gauges. By combining VLM and SLNV with IPCC-AR5 regional projections of climatic data (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5), we provide relative sea-level rise projections by 2100. Results show that the combined effects of SLNV and VLM are not negligible, contributing between 15% and 65% to the sea-level variability. Expected sea levels for 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario are between 475 ± 203 (Bakar) and 818 ± 250 mm (Venice). In the Venice Lagoon, the mean land subsidence at 3.3 ± 0.85 mm a−1 (locally up to 8.45 ± 1.69 mm a−1) is driving the local sea-level rise acceleration.