Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate: Regression Analysis and Tentative Predictions

Range Dynamics of Striped Field Mouse (Apodemus agrarius) in Northern Eurasia under Global Climate Change Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models

The striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius Pallas, 1771) is a widespread species in Northern Eurasia. It damages crops and carries zoonotic pathogens. Its current and future range expansion under climate change may negatively affect public health and the economy, warranting further research to understand the ecological and invasive characteristics of the species. In our study, we used seven algorithms (GLM, GAM, GBS, FDA, RF, ANN, and MaxEnt) to develop robust ensemble species distribution models (eSDMs) under current (1970-2000) and future climate conditions derived from global circulation models (GCMs) for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Simulation of climate change included high-, medium-, and low-sensitivity GCMs under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We analyzed the habitat suitability across GCMs and scenarios by constructing geographical ranges and calculating their centroids. The results showed that the range changes depended on both the sensitivity of GCMs and scenario. The main trends were range expansion to the northeast and partial loss of habitat in the steppe area. The striped field mouse may form a continuous range from Central Europe to East Asia, closing the range gap that has existed for 12 thousand years. We present 49 eSDMs for the current and future distribution of A. agrarius (for 2000-2100) with quantitative metrics (gain, loss, change) of the range dynamics under global climate change. The most important predictor variables determining eSDMs are mean annual temperature, mean diurnal range of temperatures, the highest temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the coldest month. These findings could help limit the population of the striped field mouse and predict distribution of the species under global climate change.

Is there a link between the length of the solar cycle and Earth’s temperature?

The Sun provides most of external energy to Earth’s system and thus has the potential of influencing it. Various studies reported a correlation between the solar cycle length and the northern hemisphere temperatures on Earth. Here, we reassess the cycle length record by incorporating the newly revised and updated sunspot number series as well as plage area composite, before comparing it to Earth temperature records. We find that cycle length series constructed from sunspot and plage data exhibit the same behaviour, both showing a downward trend after 1940. Our results suggest that the agreement between solar cycle lengths and temperatures found earlier is an artefact of (1) some arbitrary choices made by those studies when constructing the cycle length series as well as (2) a rather short time interval, to which the analyses were restricted. When considering the entire period of reliable sunspot and temperature data, these records diverge before about 1870 and after 1960. We also find a poor agreement between Earth temperatures and cycle length when using plage areas instead of sunspot data to derive cycle lengths. Our result of the divergence between cycle length series and Earth’s temperature after 1960 implies that the cycle length cannot be used to support a solar origin for the warming on Earth over the last 5 decades.