Prediction of the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Species Meconopsis punicea Maxim under Future Climate Change Based on Four Species Distribution Models

Climate change increases the extinction risk of species, and studying the impact of climate change on endangered species is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. In this study, the endangered plant Meconopsis punicea Maxim (M. punicea) was selected as the research object. Four species distribution models (SDMs): the generalized linear model, the generalized boosted regression tree model, random forest and flexible discriminant analysis were applied to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climates scenarios. Among them, two emission scenarios of sharing socio-economic pathways (SSPs; i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and two global circulation models (GCMs) were considered for future climate conditions. Our results showed that temperature seasonality, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the potential distribution of M. punicea. The prediction of the four SDMs consistently indicated that the current potential distribution area of M. punicea is concentrated between 29.02° N-39.06° N and 91.40° E-105.89° E. Under future climate change, the potential distribution of M. punicea will expand from the southeast to the northwest, and the expansion area under SSP5-8.5 would be wider than that under SSP2-4.5. In addition, there were significant differences in the potential distribution of M. punicea predicted by different SDMs, with slight differences caused by GCMs and emission scenarios. Our study suggests using agreement results from different SDMs as the basis for developing conservation strategies to improve reliability.

Predicting soil erosion potential under CMIP6 climate change scenarios in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia

Climate change and soil erosion are very associated with environmental defiance which affects the life sustainability of humans. However, the potency effects of both events in tropical regions are arduous to be estimated due to atmospheric conditions and unsustainable land use management. Therefore, several models can be used to predict the impacts of distinct climate scenarios on human and environmental relationships. In this study, we aimed to predict current and future soil erosion potential in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia under different Climate Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) scenarios (e.g., SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5). Our results found the predicted mean soil erosion values for the baseline scenario (2019-2021) was around 50.42 t/ha year. The mining areas recorded the highest soil erosion values located in the southeastern part. The high future soil erosion values (36.15 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP4.5 during 2060-2080. Whilst, the lowest values (33.30 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP2.6 during 2040-2060. According to CMIP6, the future soil erosion potential in the study area would reduce by approximately 33.9% compared to the baseline year (2019-2021). The rainfall erosivity factor majorly affected soil erosion potential in the study area. The output of the study will contribute to achieving the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Measuring and evaluating SDG indicators with Big Earth Data

The United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides an important framework for economic, social, and environmental action. A comprehensive indicator system to aid in the systematic implementation and monitoring of progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is unfortunately limited in many countries due to lack of data. The availability of a growing amount of multi-source data and rapid advancements in big data methods and infrastructure provide unique opportunities to mitigate these data shortages and develop innovative methodologies for comparatively monitoring SDGs. Big Earth Data, a special class of big data with spatial attributes, holds tremendous potential to facilitate science, technology, and innovation toward implementing SDGs around the world. Several programs and initiatives in China have invested in Big Earth Data infrastructure and capabilities, and have successfully carried out case studies to demonstrate their utility in sustainability science. This paper presents implementations of Big Earth Data in evaluating SDG indicators, including the development of new algorithms, indicator expansion (for SDG 11.4.1) and indicator extension (for SDG 11.3.1), introduction of a biodiversity risk index as a more effective analysis method for SDG 15.5.1, and several new high-quality data products, such as global net ecosystem productivity, high-resolution global mountain green cover index, and endangered species richness. These innovations are used to present a comprehensive analysis of SDGs 2, 6, 11, 13, 14, and 15 from 2010 to 2020 in China utilizing Big Earth Data, concluding that all six SDGs are on schedule to be achieved by 2030.