Characterizing Complexity Changes in Chinese Stock Markets by Permutation Entropy

Using Entropy to Evaluate the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Financial Networks

We analyze the changes in the financial network built using the Dow Jones Industrial Average components following monetary policy shocks. Monetary policy shocks are measured through unexpected changes in the federal funds rate in the United States. We determine the changes in the financial networks using singular value decomposition entropy and von Neumann entropy. The results indicate that unexpected positive shocks in monetary policy shocks lead to lower entropy. The results are robust to varying the window size used to construct financial networks, though they also depend on the type of entropy used.

Refined Composite Multi-Scale Reverse Weighted Permutation Entropy and Its Applications in Ship-Radiated Noise

Ship-radiated noise is one of the important signal types under the complex ocean background, which can well reflect physical properties of ships. As one of the valid measures to characterize the complexity of ship-radiated noise, permutation entropy (PE) has the advantages of high efficiency and simple calculation. However, PE has the problems of missing amplitude information and single scale. To address the two drawbacks, refined composite multi-scale reverse weighted PE (RCMRWPE), as a novel measurement technology of describing the signal complexity, is put forward based on refined composite multi-scale processing (RCMP) and reverse weighted PE (RWPE). RCMP is an improved method of coarse-graining, which not only solves the problem of single scale, but also improves the stability of traditional coarse-graining; RWPE has been proposed more recently, and has better inter-class separability and robustness performance to noise than PE, weighted PE (WPE), and reverse PE (RPE). Additionally, a feature extraction scheme of ship-radiated noise is proposed based on RCMRWPE, furthermore, RCMRWPE is combined with discriminant analysis classifier (DAC) to form a new classification method. After that, a large number of comparative experiments of feature extraction schemes and classification methods with two artificial random signals and six ship-radiated noise are carried out, which show that the proposed feature extraction scheme has better performance in distinguishing ability and stability than the other three similar feature extraction schemes based on multi-scale PE (MPE), multi-scale WPE (MWPE), and multi-scale RPE (MRPE), and the proposed classification method also has the highest recognition rate.

Multiscale adaptive multifractal analysis and its applications

To precisely analyze the fractal nature of a short-term time series under the multiscale framework, this study introduces multiscale adaptive multifractal analysis (MAMFA) combining the adaptive fractal analysis method with the multiscale multifractal analysis (MMA). MAMFA and MMA are both applied to the two kinds of simulation sequences, and the results show that the MAMFA method achieves better performances than MMA. MAMFA is also applied to the Chinese and American stock indexes and the R-R interval of heart rate data. It is found that the multifractal characteristics of stock sequences are related to the selection of the scale range s. There is a big difference in the Hurst surface's shape of Chinese and American stock indexes and Chinese stock indexes have more obvious multifractal characteristics. For the R-R interval sequence, we find that the subjects with abnormal heart rate have significant shape changes in three areas of Hurst surface compared with healthy subjects, thereby patients can be effectively distinguished from healthy subjects.

Information Transfer between Stock Market Sectors: A Comparison between the USA and China

Information diffusion within financial markets plays a crucial role in the process of price formation and the propagation of sentiment and risk. We perform a comparative analysis of information transfer between industry sectors of the Chinese and the USA stock markets, using daily sector indices for the period from 2000 to 2017. The information flow from one sector to another is measured by the transfer entropy of the daily returns of the two sector indices. We find that the most active sector in information exchange (i.e., the largest total information inflow and outflow) is the non-bank financial sector in the Chinese market and the technology sector in the USA market. This is consistent with the role of the non-bank sector in corporate financing in China and the impact of technological innovation in the USA. In each market, the most active sector is also the largest information sink that has the largest information inflow (i.e., inflow minus outflow). In contrast, we identify that the main information source is the bank sector in the Chinese market and the energy sector in the USA market. In the case of China, this is due to the importance of net bank lending as a signal of corporate activity and the role of energy pricing in affecting corporate profitability. There are sectors such as the real estate sector that could be an information sink in one market but an information source in the other, showing the complex behavior of different markets. Overall, these findings show that stock markets are more synchronized, or ordered, during periods of turmoil than during periods of stability.

Complexity Changes in the US and China's Stock Markets: Differences, Causes, and Wider Social Implications

How different are the emerging and the well-developed stock markets in terms of efficiency? To gain insights into this question, we compared an important emerging market, the Chinese stock market, and the largest and the most developed market, the US stock market. Specifically, we computed the Lempel–Ziv complexity (LZ) and the permutation entropy (PE) from two composite stock indices, the Shanghai stock exchange composite index (SSE) and the Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA), for both low-frequency (daily) and high-frequency (minute-to-minute)stock index data. We found that the US market is basically fully random and consistent with efficient market hypothesis (EMH), irrespective of whether low- or high-frequency stock index data are used. The Chinese market is also largely consistent with the EMH when low-frequency data are used. However, a completely different picture emerges when the high-frequency stock index data are used, irrespective of whether the LZ or PE is computed. In particular, the PE decreases substantially in two significant time windows, each encompassing a rapid market rise and then a few gigantic stock crashes. To gain further insights into the causes of the difference in the complexity changes in the two markets, we computed the Hurst parameter H from the high-frequency stock index data of the two markets and examined their temporal variations. We found that in stark contrast with the US market, whose H is always close to 1/2, which indicates fully random behavior, for the Chinese market, H deviates from 1/2 significantly for time scales up to about 10 min within a day, and varies systemically similar to the PE for time scales from about 10 min to a day. This opens the door for large-scale collective behavior to occur in the Chinese market, including herding behavior and large-scale manipulation as a result of inside information.

Reverse Dispersion Entropy: A New Complexity Measure for Sensor Signal

Permutation entropy (PE), as one of the powerful complexity measures for analyzing time series, has advantages of easy implementation and high efficiency. In order to improve the performance of PE, some improved PE methods have been proposed through introducing amplitude information and distance information in recent years. Weighted-permutation entropy (W-PE) weight each arrangement pattern by using variance information, which has good robustness and stability in the case of high noise level and can extract complexity information from data with spike feature or abrupt amplitude change. Dispersion entropy (DE) introduces amplitude information by using the normal cumulative distribution function (NCDF); it not only can detect the change of simultaneous frequency and amplitude, but also is superior to the PE method in distinguishing different data sets. Reverse permutation entropy (RPE) is defined as the distance to white noise in the opposite trend with PE and W-PE, which has high stability for time series with varying lengths. To further improve the performance of PE, we propose a new complexity measure for analyzing time series, and term it as reverse dispersion entropy (RDE). RDE takes PE as its theoretical basis and combines the advantages of DE and RPE by introducing amplitude information and distance information. Simulation experiments were carried out on simulated and sensor signals, including mutation signal detection under different parameters, noise robustness testing, stability testing under different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), and distinguishing real data for different kinds of ships and faults. The experimental results show, compared with PE, W-PE, RPE, and DE, that RDE has better performance in detecting abrupt signal and noise robustness testing, and has better stability for simulated and sensor signal. Moreover, it also shows higher distinguishing ability than the other four kinds of PE for sensor signals.

Fractional Refined Composite Multiscale Fuzzy Entropy of International Stock Indices

Fractional refined composite multiscale fuzzy entropy (FRCMFE), which aims to relieve the large fluctuation of fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn) measure and significantly discriminate different short-term financial time series with noise, is proposed to quantify the complexity dynamics of the international stock indices in the paper. To comprehend the FRCMFE, the complexity analyses of Gaussian white noise with different signal lengths, the random logarithmic returns and volatility series of the international stock indices are comparatively performed with multiscale fuzzy entropy (MFE), composite multiscale fuzzy entropy (CMFE) and refined composite multiscale fuzzy entropy (RCMFE). The empirical results show that the FRCMFE measure outperforms the traditional methods to some extent.

Quantifying the Multiscale Predictability of Financial Time Series by an Information-Theoretic Approach

Making predictions on the dynamics of time series of a system is a very interesting topic. A fundamental prerequisite of this work is to evaluate the predictability of the system over a wide range of time. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic tool, multiscale entropy difference (MED), to evaluate the predictability of nonlinear financial time series on multiple time scales. We discuss the predictability of the isolated system and open systems, respectively. Evidence from the analysis of the logistic map, Hénon map, and the Lorenz system manifests that the MED method is accurate, robust, and has a wide range of applications. We apply the new method to five-minute high-frequency data and the daily data of Chinese stock markets. Results show that the logarithmic change of stock price (logarithmic return) has a lower possibility of being predicted than the volatility. The logarithmic change of trading volume contributes significantly to the prediction of the logarithmic change of stock price on multiple time scales. The daily data are found to have a larger possibility of being predicted than the five-minute high-frequency data. This indicates that the arbitrage opportunity exists in the Chinese stock markets, which thus cannot be approximated by the effective market hypothesis (EMH).

The Impact of Financial and Macroeconomic Shocks on the Entropy of Financial Markets

We propose here a method to analyze whether financial and macroeconomic shocks influence the entropy of financial networks. We derive a measure of entropy using the correlation matrix of the stock market components of the DOW Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. Using VAR models in different specifications, we show that shocks in production or the DJIA index lead to an increase in the entropy of the financial markets.

Permutation Entropy and Information Recovery in Nonlinear Dynamic Economic Time Series

The focus of this paper is an information theoretic-symbolic logic approach to extract information from complex economic systems and unlock its dynamic content. Permutation Entropy (PE) is used to capture the permutation patterns-ordinal relations among the individual values of a given time series; to obtain a probability distribution of the accessible patterns; and to quantify the degree of complexity of an economic behavior system. Ordinal patterns are used to describe the intrinsic patterns, which are hidden in the dynamics of the economic system. Empirical applications involving the Dow Jones Industrial Average are presented to indicate the information recovery value and the applicability of the PE method. The results demonstrate the ability of the PE method to detect the extent of complexity (irregularity) and to discriminate and classify admissible and forbidden states.

Cross-Sectoral Information Transfer in the Chinese Stock Market around Its Crash in 2015

This paper applies effective transfer entropy to research the information transfer in the Chinese stock market around its crash in 2015. According to the market states, the entire period is divided into four sub-phases: the tranquil, bull, crash, and post-crash periods. Kernel density estimation is used to calculate the effective transfer entropy. Then, the information transfer network is constructed. Nodes’ centralities and the directed maximum spanning trees of the networks are analyzed. The results show that, in the tranquil period, the information transfer is weak in the market. In the bull period, the strength and scope of the information transfer increases. The utility sector outputs a great deal of information and is the hub node for the information flow. In the crash period, the information transfer grows further. The market efficiency in this period is worse than that in the other three sub-periods. The information technology sector is the biggest information source, while the consumer staples sector receives the most information. The interactions of the sectors become more direct. In the post-crash period, information transfer declines but is still stronger than the tranquil time. The financial sector receives the largest amount of information and is the pivot node.

Modeling the Comovement of Entropy between Financial Markets

In this paper, I propose a methodology to study the comovement between the entropy of different financial markets. The entropy is derived using singular value decomposition of the components of stock market indices in financial markets from selected developed economies, i.e., France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. I study how a shock in the entropy in the United States affects the entropy in the other financial markets. I also model the entropy using a dynamic factor model and derive a common factor behind the entropy movements in these four markets.