Assessing Time Series Reversibility through Permutation Patterns

A new network representation for time series analysis from the perspective of combinatorial property of ordinal patterns

Revealing system behavior from observed time series is a fundamental problem worthy of in-depth study and exploration, and has attracted extensive attention in a wide range of fields due to its wide application values. In this paper, we propose a novel network construction method for time series analysis, which is different from the existing ordinal network method concerning the transition probability of ordinal patterns in transition networks. The proposed network representation is based on the combinatorial property concerning the inversion number of ordinal patterns from the ordinal partitions of time series. For the proposed network construction method, the network nodes are represented by each ordinal partition of time series and the edge weight between network nodes is determined by a novel proximity relationship of ordinal patterns which is a newly defined metric based on the inversion number of ordinal patterns. Using random signals and chaotic signals as examples, we demonstrate the potential of the proposed network construction method for the network representation of time series. We also employ the proposed network construction method in quantitative EEG for the identification of three different physiological and pathological brain states. According to the results of AUC values, one can observe that the discriminating power of the AND of the proposed network construction method is slightly stronger than that of the available ordinal network. The experimental results illustrate that our proposed network construction method opens up a new pathway for network representation of time series, which is capable of quantifying time series for feature extraction and pattern learning for time series analysis.

The time scales of irreversibility in spontaneous brain activity are altered in obsessive compulsive disorder

We study how obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) affects the complexity and time-reversal symmetry-breaking (irreversibility) of the brain resting-state activity as measured by magnetoencephalography (MEG). Comparing MEG recordings from OCD patients and age/sex matched control subjects, we find that irreversibility is more concentrated at faster time scales and more uniformly distributed across different channels of the same hemisphere in OCD patients than in control subjects. Furthermore, the interhemispheric asymmetry between homologous areas of OCD patients and controls is also markedly different. Some of these differences were reduced by 1-year of Kundalini Yoga meditation treatment. Taken together, these results suggest that OCD alters the dynamic attractor of the brain's resting state and hint at a possible novel neurophysiological characterization of this psychiatric disorder and how this therapy can possibly modulate brain function.

On the complementarity of ordinal patterns-based entropy and time asymmetry metrics

Entropy and time asymmetry are two intertwined aspects of a system's dynamics, with the production of entropy marking a clear direction in the temporal dimension. In the last few years, metrics to quantify both properties in time series have been designed around the same concept, i.e., the use of ordinal patterns. In spite of this, the relationship between these two families of metrics is yet not well understood. In this contribution, we study this problem by constructing an entropy-time asymmetry plane and evaluating it on a large set of synthetic and real-world time series. We show how the two metrics can at times behave independently, the main reason being the presence of patterns with turning points; due to this, they yield complementary information about the underlying systems, and they have different discriminating performance.

Continuous ordinal patterns: Creating a bridge between ordinal analysis and deep learning

We introduce a generalization of the celebrated ordinal pattern approach for the analysis of time series, in which these are evaluated in terms of their distance to ordinal patterns defined in a continuous way. This allows us to naturally incorporate information about the local amplitude of the data and to optimize the ordinal pattern(s) to the problem under study. This last element represents a novel bridge between standard ordinal analysis and deep learning, allowing the achievement of results comparable to the latter in real-world classification problems while also retaining the conceptual simplicity, computational efficiency, and easy interpretability of the former. We test this through the use of synthetic time series, generated by standard chaotic maps and dynamical models, data sets representing brain activity in health and schizophrenia, and the dynamics of delays in the European air transport system. We further show how the continuous ordinal patterns can be used to assess other aspects of the dynamics, like time irreversibility.

Statistics and contrasts of order patterns in univariate time series

Order patterns apply well to many fields, because of minimal stationarity assumptions. Here, we fix the methodology of patterns of length 3 by introducing an orthogonal system of four pattern contrasts, that is, weighted differences of pattern frequencies. These contrasts are statistically independent and turn up as eigenvectors of a covariance matrix both in the independence model and the random walk model. The most important contrast is the turning rate. It can be used to evaluate sleep depth directly from EEG (electroencephalographic brain data). The paper discusses fluctuations of permutation entropy, statistical tests, and the need of new models for noises like EEG.

Ordinal methods for a characterization of evolving functional brain networks

Ordinal time series analysis is based on the idea to map time series to ordinal patterns, i.e., order relations between the values of a time series and not the values themselves, as introduced in 2002 by C. Bandt and B. Pompe. Despite a resulting loss of information, this approach captures meaningful information about the temporal structure of the underlying system dynamics as well as about properties of interactions between coupled systems. This-together with its conceptual simplicity and robustness against measurement noise-makes ordinal time series analysis well suited to improve characterization of the still poorly understood spatiotemporal dynamics of the human brain. This minireview briefly summarizes the state-of-the-art of uni- and bivariate ordinal time-series-analysis techniques together with applications in the neurosciences. It will highlight current limitations to stimulate further developments, which would be necessary to advance characterization of evolving functional brain networks.

Permutation Jensen-Shannon distance: A versatile and fast symbolic tool for complex time-series analysis

The main motivation of this paper is to introduce the permutation Jensen-Shannon distance, a symbolic tool able to quantify the degree of similarity between two arbitrary time series. This quantifier results from the fusion of two concepts, the Jensen-Shannon divergence and the encoding scheme based on the sequential ordering of the elements in the data series. The versatility and robustness of this ordinal symbolic distance for characterizing and discriminating different dynamics are illustrated through several numerical and experimental applications. Results obtained allow us to be optimistic about its usefulness in the field of complex time-series analysis. Moreover, thanks to its simplicity, low computational cost, wide applicability, and less susceptibility to outliers and artifacts, this ordinal measure can efficiently handle large amounts of data and help to tackle the current big data challenges.

Algorithmic Approaches for Assessing Irreversibility in Time Series: Review and Comparison

The assessment of time irreversibility, i.e., of the lack of invariance of the statistical properties of a system under the operation of time reversal, is a topic steadily gaining attention within the research community. Irreversible dynamics have been found in many real-world systems, with alterations being connected to, for instance, pathologies in the human brain, heart and gait, or to inefficiencies in financial markets. Assessing irreversibility in time series is not an easy task, due to its many aetiologies and to the different ways it manifests in data. It is thus not surprising that several numerical methods have been proposed in the last decades, based on different principles and with different applications in mind. In this contribution we review the most important algorithmic solutions that have been proposed to test the irreversibility of time series, their underlying hypotheses, computational and practical limitations, and their comparative performance. We further provide an open-source software library that includes all tests here considered. As a final point, we show that "one size does not fit all", as tests yield complementary, and sometimes conflicting views to the problem; and discuss some future research avenues.

Assessing time series irreversibility through micro-scale trends

Time irreversibility, defined as the lack of invariance of the statistical properties of a system or time series under the operation of time reversal, has received increasing attention during the last few decades, thanks to the information it provides about the mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics. Following the need of analyzing real-world time series, many irreversibility metrics and tests have been proposed, each one associated with different requirements in terms of, e.g., minimum time series length or computational cost. We here build upon previously proposed tests based on the concept of permutation patterns but deviating from them through the inclusion of information about the amplitude of the signal and how this evolves over time. We show, by means of synthetic time series, that the results yielded by this method are complementary to the ones obtained by using permutation patterns alone, thus suggesting that "one irreversibility metric does not fit all." We further apply the proposed metric to the analysis of two real-world data sets.

Time-Delay Identification Using Multiscale Ordinal Quantifiers

Time-delayed interactions naturally appear in a multitude of real-world systems due to the finite propagation speed of physical quantities. Often, the time scales of the interactions are unknown to an external observer and need to be inferred from time series of observed data. We explore, in this work, the properties of several ordinal-based quantifiers for the identification of time-delays from time series. To that end, we generate artificial time series of stochastic and deterministic time-delay models. We find that the presence of a nonlinearity in the generating model has consequences for the distribution of ordinal patterns and, consequently, on the delay-identification qualities of the quantifiers. Here, we put forward a novel ordinal-based quantifier that is particularly sensitive to nonlinearities in the generating model and compare it with previously-defined quantifiers. We conclude from our analysis on artificially generated data that the proper identification of the presence of a time-delay and its precise value from time series benefits from the complementary use of ordinal-based quantifiers and the standard autocorrelation function. We further validate these tools with a practical example on real-world data originating from the North Atlantic Oscillation weather phenomenon.

Variations in stability revealed by temporal asymmetries in contraction of phase space flow

Empirical diagnosis of stability has received considerable attention, often focused on variance metrics for early warning signals of abrupt system change or delicate techniques measuring Lyapunov spectra. The theoretical foundation for the popular early warning signal approach has been limited to relatively simple system changes such as bifurcating fixed points where variability is extrinsic to the steady state. We offer a novel measurement of stability that applies in wide ranging systems that contain variability in both internal steady state dynamics and in response to external perturbations. Utilizing connections between stability, dissipation, and phase space flow, we show that stability correlates with temporal asymmetry in a measure of phase space flow contraction. Our method is general as it reveals stability variation independent of assumptions about the nature of system variability or attractor shape. After showing efficacy in a variety of model systems, we apply our technique for measuring stability to monthly returns of the S&P 500 index in the time periods surrounding the global stock market crash of October 1987. Market stability is shown to be higher in the several years preceding and subsequent to the 1987 market crash. We anticipate our technique will have wide applicability in climate, ecological, financial, and social systems where stability is a pressing concern.

Short-term prediction through ordinal patterns

Prediction in natural environments is a challenging task, and there is a lack of clarity around how a myopic organism can make short-term predictions given limited data availability and cognitive resources. In this context, we may ask what kind of resources are available to the organism to help it address the challenge of short-term prediction within its own cognitive limits. We point to one potentially important resource: ordinal patterns, which are extensively used in physics but not in the study of cognitive processes. We explain the potential importance of ordinal patterns for short-term prediction, and how natural constraints imposed through (i) ordinal pattern types, (ii) their transition probabilities and (iii) their irreversibility signature may support short-term prediction. Having tested these ideas on a massive dataset of Bitcoin prices representing a highly fluctuating environment, we provide preliminary empirical support showing how organisms characterized by bounded rationality may generate short-term predictions by relying on ordinal patterns.

Permutation Entropy and Irreversibility in Gait Kinematic Time Series from Patients with Mild Cognitive Decline and Early Alzheimer’s Dementia

Gait is a basic cognitive purposeful action that has been shown to be altered in late stages of neurodegenerative dementias. Nevertheless, alterations are less clear in mild forms of dementia, and the potential use of gait analysis as a biomarker of initial cognitive decline has hitherto mostly been neglected. Herein, we report the results of a study of gait kinematic time series for two groups of patients (mild cognitive impairment and mild Alzheimer’s disease) and a group of matched control subjects. Two metrics based on permutation patterns are considered, respectively measuring the complexity and irreversibility of the time series. Results indicate that kinematic disorganisation is present in early phases of cognitive impairment; in addition, they depict a rich scenario, in which some joint movements display an increased complexity and irreversibility, while others a marked decrease. Beyond their potential use as biomarkers, complexity and irreversibility metrics can open a new door to the understanding of the role of the nervous system in gait, as well as its adaptation and compensatory mechanisms.

Small Order Patterns in Big Time Series: A Practical Guide

The study of order patterns of three equally-spaced values xt,xt+d,xt+2d in a time series is a powerful tool. The lag d is changed in a wide range so that the differences of the frequencies of order patterns become autocorrelation functions. Similar to a spectrogram in speech analysis, four ordinal autocorrelation functions are used to visualize big data series, as for instance heart and brain activity over many hours. The method applies to real data without preprocessing, and outliers and missing data do not matter. On the theoretical side, we study the properties of order correlation functions and show that the four autocorrelation functions are orthogonal in a certain sense. An analysis of variance of a modified permutation entropy can be performed with four variance components associated with the functions.