Entropy Method of Road Safety Management: Case Study of the Russian Federation

Information and Entropy Aspects of the Specifics of Regional Road Traffic Accident Rate in Russia

The aim of this research is to study the specifics of the road accident rate formation processes in regions of the Russian Federation (2021) using information-entropic analysis. The typical research approaches (correlation-regression, factorial analyses, simulation modelling, etc.) do not always allow us to identify its specificity. It is impossible to evaluate the quality of the researched process’s structure using these methods. However, this knowledge is required to understand the distinctions between high-quality road safety management and its opposite. In order to achieve the goal of the research methodology based on the use of the classical approaches of C. Shannon, the quantitative value of information entropy H was elaborated. The key components of this method are the modelling of the cause-and-effect chain of road accident rate formation and the consideration of the relative significances of individual blocks of the process in achieving the final result. During the research the required statistical data were collected and the structure of the road accident rate formation process in 82 regions of the Russian Federation in the format “Population P—Fleet of vehicles NVh—Road Traffic Accidents NRA—RTA Victims NV—Fatality Cases ND” was analyzed. The fact that the structure of the road accident rate formation process is extremely specific in different Russian regions was shown. Exactly this specificity forms the degree of ambiguity in the state of Russian regional road safety provision systems in terms of the probability of death in road accidents. The main conclusion of this research is that information-entropic analysis can be successfully used to assess the structural quality of road safety systems.

Entropy-Weight-Method-Based Integrated Models for Short-Term Intersection Traffic Flow Prediction

Three different types of entropy weight methods (EWMs), i.e., EWM-A, EWM-B, and EWM-C, have been used by previous studies for integrating prediction models. These three methods use very different ideas on determining the weights of individual models for integration. To evaluate the performances of these three EWMs, this study applied them to developing integrated short-term traffic flow prediction models for signalized intersections. At first, two individual models, i.e., a k-nearest neighbors (KNN)-algorithm-based model and a neural-network-based model (Elman), were developed as individual models to be integrated using EWMs. These two models were selected because they have been widely used for traffic flow prediction and have been approved to be able to achieve good performance. After that, three integrated models were developed by using the three different types of EWMs. The performances of the three integrated models, as well as the individual KNN and Elman models, were compared. We found that the traffic flow predicted with the EWM-C model is the most accurate prediction for most of the days. Based on the model evaluation results, the advantages of using the EWM-C method were deliberated and the problems with the EWM-A and EWM-B methods were also discussed.

A social network analysis in dynamic evaluate critical industries based on input-output data of China

As the Chinese economy grows, the imbalance of industrial structure is prominent, and the optimization of industrial structure has become an urgent problem. Evaluation of industry is an important step in industry optimization. To this end, this study proposes an integrated evaluation method combining social network analysis (SNA) and the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method. Specifically, SNA method are used to calculate indicators, the measurement weights are calculated by the Entropy Weight (EW) Method, and the rank of each industry is determined by the TOPSIS method. Critical industries are identified based on China’s input-output data from 2002 to 2017. The results indicate that Manufacturing Industry and the Metal products have a high evaluation, but the Research and Development have a low evaluation value at all times. According to the results, we suggest that the government should optimize the allocation of resources and promote the transfer of resources to balance industrial development.