Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Forecasting Using an Improved LSSVM Model Optimized by Whale Optimization Algorithm

Carbon emission prediction models: A review

Amidst growing concerns over the greenhouse effect, especially its consequential impacts, establishing effective Carbon Emission Prediction Models (CEPMs) to comprehend and predict CO2 emission trends is imperative for climate change mitigation. A review of 147 Carbon Emission Prediction Model (CEPM) studies revealed three predominant functions-prediction, optimization, and prediction factor selection. Statistical models, comprising 75 instances, were the most prevalent among prediction models, followed by neural network models at 21.8 %. The consistent rise in neural network model usage, particularly feedforward architectures, was observed from 2019 to 2022. A majority of CEPMs incorporated optimized approaches, with 94.4 % utilizing metaheuristic models. Parameter optimization was the primary focus, followed by structure optimization. Prediction factor selection models, employing Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for statistical and machine learning models, respectively, filtered factors effectively. Scrutinizing accuracy, pre-optimized CEPMs exhibited varied performance, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values spanned from 0.112 to 1635 Mt, while post-optimization led to a notable improvement, the minimum RMSE reached 0.0003 Mt, and the maximum was 95.14 Mt. Finally, we summarized the pros and cons of existing models, classified and counted the factors that influence carbon emissions, clarified the research objectives in CEPM and assessed the applied model evaluation methods and the spatial and temporal scales of existing research.

A Hybrid Soft Sensor Model for Measuring the Oxygen Content in Boiler Flue Gas

As an indispensable component of coal-fired power plants, boilers play a crucial role in converting water into high-pressure steam. The oxygen content in the flue gas is a crucial indicator, which indicates the state of combustion within the boiler. The oxygen content not only affects the thermal efficiency of the boiler and the energy utilization of the generator unit, but also has adverse impacts on the environment. Therefore, accurate measurement of the flue gas's oxygen content is of paramount importance in enhancing the energy utilization efficiency of coal-fired power plants and reducing the emissions of waste gas and pollutants. This study proposes a prediction model for the oxygen content in the flue gas that combines the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Among them, the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) was used to optimize the learning rate, the number of hidden layers, and the regularization coefficients of the long short-term memory (LSTM). The data used in this study were obtained from a 350 MW power generation unit in a coal-fired power plant to validate the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model. The simulation results demonstrated that the whale optimization algorithm-long short-term memory (WOA-LSTM) model achieved an MAE of 0.16493, an RMSE of 0.12712, an MAPE of 2.2254%, and an R2 value of 0.98664. The whale optimization algorithm-long short-term memory (WOA-LSTM) model demonstrated enhancements in accuracy compared with the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), long short-term memory (LSTM), particle swarm optimization-least squares support vector machine (PSO-LSSVM), and particle swarm optimization-long short-term memory (PSO-LSTM), with improvements of 4.93%, 4.03%, 1.35%, and 0.49%, respectively. These results indicated that the proposed soft sensor model exhibited more accurate performance, which can meet practical requirements of coal-fired power plants.

A multi-factor combination prediction model of carbon emissions based on improved CEEMDAN

As the global greenhouse effect intensifies, carbon emissions are gradually becoming a hot topic of discussion. Accurate carbon emissions prediction is an important foundation to realize carbon neutrality and peak carbon dioxide emissions. To accurately predict carbon emissions, a multi-factor combination prediction model based on improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN), bidirectional long short-term memory optimized by lemurs optimizer (LOBiLSTM) and least squares support vector machine optimized by lemurs optimizer (LOLSSVM), named ICEEMDAN-LOBiLSTM-LOLSSVM, is proposed. Firstly, the influencing factors of carbon emissions are selected by Spearman correlation coefficient, and carbon emissions are decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by ICEEMDAN. Secondly, the influencing factors and IMFs are input into LOBiLSTM and LOLSSVM respectively for prediction. Then, the point prediction results are obtained by weighting the prediction results of LOBiLSTM and LOLSSVM. Finally, probability density function of point prediction error is calculated by kernel density estimation, and the interval prediction results are calculated according to different confidence intervals. Carbon emissions of China and Germany are selected to verify the superiority of ICEEMDAN-LOBiLSTM-LOLSSVM. The experiment shows that RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 of the proposed model are 0.4468, 0.3612, 0.0120, and 0.9839 respectively for China, which is the best among the nine models, as well as for Germany.

Forecast of carbon emissions in China based on time lag MGM(1,m,N|τ) grey model

Global climate issues have been gaining international attention in recent years. As the largest developing country and the prime carbon emitter, the Chinese government has proposed a strategic 'double carbon' target for carbon emissions. To predict carbon emissions more accurately, clarify the future supply situation and optimise resource allocation, based on the grey M G M ( 1 , m , N | τ ) model, we introduced and applied the particle swarm algorithm to determine the time lag parameter τ and proposed a new M G M ( 1 , m , N | τ ) grey model. We give a detailed modelling procedure, including calculation steps and intelligent optimisation algorithms, by fully considering the effect of time lag. In this study, this new model is used to simulate and forecast China's carbon emissions from 2010 to 2019 and compare it with other traditional grey models and their improved time-lagged forms. The results show that the new model has significant advantages in prediction accuracy and validity, plus good prediction performance for carbon emissions, which can be extended to more macro and micro energy consumption prediction problems.

Binarization of Metaheuristics: Is the Transfer Function Really Important?

In this work, an approach is proposed to solve binary combinatorial problems using continuous metaheuristics. It focuses on the importance of binarization in the optimization process, as it can have a significant impact on the performance of the algorithm. Different binarization schemes are presented and a set of actions, which combine different transfer functions and binarization rules, under a selector based on reinforcement learning is proposed. The experimental results show that the binarization rules have a greater impact than transfer functions on the performance of the algorithms and that some sets of actions are statistically better than others. In particular, it was found that sets that incorporate the elite or elite roulette binarization rule are the best. Furthermore, exploration and exploitation were analyzed through percentage graphs and a statistical test was performed to determine the best set of actions. Overall, this work provides a practical approach for the selection of binarization schemes in binary combinatorial problems and offers guidance for future research in this field.

EWOA-OPF: Effective Whale Optimization Algorithm to Solve Optimal Power Flow Problem

The optimal power flow (OPF) is a vital tool for optimizing the control parameters of a power system by considering the desired objective functions subject to system constraints. Metaheuristic algorithms have been proven to be well-suited for solving complex optimization problems. The whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is one of the well-regarded metaheuristics that is widely used to solve different optimization problems. Despite the use of WOA in different fields of application as OPF, its effectiveness is decreased as the dimension size of the test system is increased. Therefore, in this paper, an effective whale optimization algorithm for solving optimal power flow problems (EWOA-OPF) is proposed. The main goal of this enhancement is to improve the exploration ability and maintain a proper balance between the exploration and exploitation of the canonical WOA. In the proposed algorithm, the movement strategy of whales is enhanced by introducing two new movement strategies: (1) encircling the prey using Levy motion and (2) searching for prey using Brownian motion that cooperate with canonical bubble-net attacking. To validate the proposed EWOA-OPF algorithm, a comparison among six well-known optimization algorithms is established to solve the OPF problem. All algorithms are used to optimize single- and multi-objective functions of the OPF under the system constraints. Standard IEEE 6-bus, IEEE 14-bus, IEEE 30-bus, and IEEE 118-bus test systems are used to evaluate the proposed EWOA-OPF and comparative algorithms for solving the OPF problem in diverse power system scale sizes. The comparison of results proves that the EWOA-OPF is able to solve single- and multi-objective OPF problems with better solutions than other comparative algorithms.

Predicting the carbon dioxide emission of China using a novel augmented hypo-variance brain storm optimisation and the impulse response function

For the past decade, the level of carbon dioxide emission in most cities in China is on the ascendancy. Yet, better prediction of environmental pollution is at the fringes of recent studies. Several erstwhile researchers have attempted predicting pollution whilst utilising approaches including the ordinary linear regressions, multivariate regressions, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), evolutionary and some conventional swarm intelligence. These conventional approaches, however, lead but to imprecise predictions owing to the inherent parameter problems characterised in those approaches. Consequently, there is the need for a better prediction of the key antecedents that affect air pollution whilst using robust techniques. This current study, therefore predicts the carbon emissions levels of China into the next decade, in response to changes in key economic variables: energy consumption, economic growth, trade, and urbanisation. This is to aid in monitoring and implementing of tailored policies and transformations in China and in similar developing and emerging economies. Our findings revealed a steadily rise in emissions as the economy grows during the initial years but decline in the ensuing forecasted period. The findings of the impulse response function, revealed that in the next decade, urbanisation, and trade (import and export) will be the major contributors of carbon dioxide emission. The proposed Brainstorm optimisation algorithms prediction model was verified and validated with actual data. Our study revealed that the Brainstorm Optimisation algorithm predicts better with less prediction error even under uncertainty information.

Improved whale optimization algorithm based on random hopping update and random control parameter

Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is a relatively novel algorithm in the field of meta-heuristic algorithms. WOA can reveal an efficient performance compared with other well-established optimization algorithms, but there is still a problem of premature convergence and easy to fall into local optimal in complex multimodal functions, so this paper presents an improved WOA, and proposes the random hopping update strategy and random control parameter strategy to improve the exploration and exploitation ability of WOA. In this paper, 24 well-known benchmark functions are used to test the algorithm, including 10 unimodal functions and 14 multimodal functions. The experimental results show that the convergence accuracy of the proposed algorithm is better than that of the original algorithm on 21 functions, and better than that of the other 5 algorithms on 23 functions.

Student Enrollment and Teacher Statistics Forecasting Based on Time-Series Analysis

Education competitiveness is a key feature of national competitiveness. It is crucial for nations to develop and enhance student and teacher potential to increase national competitiveness. The decreasing population of children has caused a series of social problems in many developed countries, directly affecting education and com.petitiveness in an international environment. In Taiwan, a low birthrate has had a large impact on schools at every level because of a substantial decrease in enrollment and a surplus of teachers. Therefore, close attention must be paid to these trends. In this study, combining a whale optimization algorithm (WOA) and support vector regression (WOASVR) was proposed to determine trends of student and teacher numbers in Taiwan for higher accuracy in time-series forecasting analysis. To select the most suitable support vector kernel parameters, WOA was applied. Data collected from the Ministry of Education datasets of student and teacher numbers between 1991 and 2018 were used to examine the proposed method. Analysis revealed that the numbers of students and teachers decreased annually except in private primary schools. A comparison of the forecasting results obtained from WOASVR and other common models indicated that WOASVR provided the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) for all analyzed datasets. Forecasting performed using the WOASVR method can provide accurate data for use in developing education policies and responses.

An Optimization Model for Construction Stage and Zone Plans of Rockfill Dams Based on the Enhanced Whale Optimization Algorithm

Rockfill dams are among the most complex, significant, and costly infrastructure projects of great national importance. A key issue in their design is the construction stage and zone optimization. However, a detailed flow shop construction scheme that considers the opinions of decision makers cannot be obtained using the current rock-fill dam construction stage and zone optimization methods, and the robustness and efficiency of existing construction stage and zone optimization approaches are not sufficient. This research presents a construction stage and zone optimization model based on a data-driven analytical hierarchy process extended by D numbers (D-AHP) and an enhanced whale optimization algorithm (EWOA). The flow shop construction scheme is optimized by presenting an automatic flow shop construction scheme multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method, which integrates the data-driven D-AHP with an improved construction simulation of a high rockfill dam (CSHRD). The EWOA, which uses Levy flight to improve the robustness and efficiency of the whale optimization algorithm (WOA), is adopted for optimization. This proposed model is implemented to optimize the construction stages and zones while obtaining a preferable flow shop construction scheme. The effectiveness and advantages of the model are proven by an example of a large-scale rockfill dam.

Forecasting CO2 emissions in Hebei, China, through moth-flame optimization based on the random forest and extreme learning machine

The surge of carbon dioxide emission plays a dominant role in global warming and climate change, posing an enormous threat to the development of human being and a profound impact on the global ecosystem. Thus, it is essential to analyze the carbon dioxide emission change trend through an accurate prediction to inform reasonable energy-saving emission reduction measures and effectively control the carbon dioxide emission from the source. This paper proposed a hybrid model by combining the random forest and extreme learning machine together for the carbon dioxide emission forecasting in this paper; the random forest is applied for influential factors analysis and the extreme learning machine for the prediction. To improve the performance of the prediction model, moth-flame optimization is adopted to optimize initial weight and bias in extreme learning machine. A case study whose data is derived from Hebei Province, China, during the period 1995-2015 is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. Results show that the novel model outperforms the compared parallel models in carbon dioxide emission prediction and has the potential to improve the accuracy of CO₂ emission forecasting.