State of the Art of Machine Learning Models in Energy Systems, a Systematic Review

A TCN-Linear Hybrid Model for Chaotic Time Series Forecasting

The applications of deep learning and artificial intelligence have permeated daily life, with time series prediction emerging as a focal area of research due to its significance in data analysis. The evolution of deep learning methods for time series prediction has progressed from the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to the recently popularized Transformer network. However, each of these methods has encountered specific issues. Recent studies have questioned the effectiveness of the self-attention mechanism in Transformers for time series prediction, prompting a reevaluation of approaches to LTSF (Long Time Series Forecasting) problems. To circumvent the limitations present in current models, this paper introduces a novel hybrid network, Temporal Convolutional Network-Linear (TCN-Linear), which leverages the temporal prediction capabilities of the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) to enhance the capacity of LSTF-Linear. Time series from three classical chaotic systems (Lorenz, Mackey-Glass, and Rossler) and real-world stock data serve as experimental datasets. Numerical simulation results indicate that, compared to classical networks and novel hybrid models, our model achieves the lowest RMSE, MAE, and MSE with the fewest training parameters, and its R2 value is the closest to 1.

Renewable energy sources integration via machine learning modelling: A systematic literature review

The use of renewable energy sources (RESs) at the distribution level has become increasingly appealing in terms of costs and technology, expecting a massive diffusion in the near future and placing several challenges to the power grid. Since RESs depend on stochastic energy sources -solar radiation, temperature and wind speed, among others- they introduce a high level of uncertainty to the grid, leading to power imbalance and deteriorating the network stability. In this scenario, managing and forecasting RES uncertainty is vital to successfully integrate them into the power grids. Traditionally, physical- and statistical-based models have been used to predict RES power outputs. Nevertheless, the former are computationally expensive since they rely on solving complex mathematical models of the atmospheric dynamics, whereas the latter usually consider linear models, preventing them from addressing challenging forecasting scenarios. In recent years, the advances in machine learning techniques, which can learn from historical data, allowing the analysis of large-scale datasets either under non-uniform characteristics or noisy data, have provided researchers with powerful data-driven tools that can outperform traditional methods. In this paper, a systematic literature review is conducted to identify the most widely used machine learning-based approaches to forecast RES power outputs. The results show that deep artificial neural networks, especially long-short term memory networks, which can accurately model the autoregressive nature of RES power output, and ensemble strategies, which allow successfully handling large amounts of highly fluctuating data, are the best suited ones. In addition, the most promising results of integrating the forecasted output into decision-making problems, such as unit commitment, to address economic, operational and managerial grid challenges are discussed, and solid directions for future research are provided.

Mapping of soil suitability for medicinal plants using machine learning methods

Inadequate conservation of medicinal plants can affect their productivity. Traditional assessments and strategies are often time-consuming and linked with errors. Utilizing herbs has been an integral part of the traditional system of medicine for centuries. However, its sustainability and conservation are critical due to climate change, over-harvesting and habitat loss. The study reveals how machine learning algorithms, geographic information systems (GIS) being a powerful tool for mapping and spatial analysis, and soil information can contribute to a swift decision-making approach for actual forethought and intensify the productivity of vulnerable curative plants of specific regions to promote drug discovery. The data analysis based on machine learning and data mining techniques over the soil, medicinal plants and GIS information can predict quick and effective results on a map to nurture the growth of the herbs. The work incorporates the construction of a novel dataset by using the quantum geographic information system tool and recommends the vulnerable herbs by implementing different supervised algorithms such as extra tree classifier (EXTC), random forest, bagging classifier, extreme gradient boosting and k nearest neighbor. Two unique approaches suggested for the user by using EXTC, firstly, for a given subregion type, its suitable soil classes and secondly, for soil type from the user, its respective subregion labels are revealed, finally, potential medicinal herbs and their conservation status are visualised using the choropleth map for classified soil/subregion. The research concludes on EXTC as it showcases outstanding performance for both soil and subregion classifications compared to other models, with an accuracy rate of 99.01% and 98.76%, respectively. The approach focuses on serving as a comprehensive and swift reference for the general public, bioscience researchers, and conservationists interested in conserving medicinal herbs based on soil availability or specific regions through maps.

Enhancing bank marketing strategies with ensemble learning: Empirical analysis

In order to enhance market share and competitiveness, large banks are increasingly focusing on promoting marketing strategies. However, the traditional bank marketing strategy often leads to the homogenization of customer demand, making it challenging to distinguish among various products. To address this issue, this paper presents a customer demand learning model based on financial datasets and optimizes the distribution model of bank big data channels through induction to rectify the imbalance in bank customer transaction data. By comparing the prediction models of random forest model and support vector machine (SVM), this paper analyzes the ability of the prediction model based on ensemble learning to significantly enhance the market segmentation of e-commerce banks. The empirical results reveal that the accuracy of random forest model reaches 92%, while the accuracy of SVM model reaches 87%. This indicates that the ensemble learning model has higher accuracy and forecasting ability than the single model. It enables the bank marketing system to implement targeted marketing, effectively maintain the relationship between customers and banks, and significantly improve the success probability of product marketing. Meanwhile, the marketing model based on ensemble learning has achieved a sales growth rate of 20% and improved customer satisfaction by 30%. This demonstrates that the implementation of the ensemble learning model has also significantly elevated the overall marketing level of bank e-commerce services. Therefore, this paper offers valuable academic guidance for bank marketing decision-making and holds important academic and practical significance in predicting bank customer demand and optimizing product marketing strategy.

An artificial neural network approach for the language learning model

The current study provides the numerical solutions of the language-based model through the artificial intelligence (AI) procedure based on the scale conjugate gradient neural network (SCJGNN). The mathematical learning language differential model is characterized into three classes, named as unknown, familiar, and mastered. A dataset is generalized by using the performance of the Adam scheme, which is used to reduce to mean square error. The AI based SCJGNN procedure works by taking the data with the ratio of testing (12%), validation (13%), and training (75%). An activation log-sigmoid function, twelve numbers of neurons, SCJG optimization, hidden and output layers are presented in this stochastic computing work for solving the learning language model. The correctness of AI based SCJGNN is noted through the overlapping of the results along with the small calculated absolute error that are around 10-06 to 10-08 for each class of the model. Moreover, the regression performances for each case of the model is performed as one that shows the perfect model. Additionally, the dependability of AI based SCJGNN is approved using the histogram, and function fitness.

Application of IoT technology based on neural networks in basketball training motion capture and injury prevention

Basketball players need to frequently engage in various physical movements during the game, which puts a certain burden on their bodies and can easily lead to various sports injuries. Therefore, it is crucial to prevent sports injuries in basketball teaching. This paper also studies basketball motion track capture. Basketball motion capture preserves the motion posture information of the target person in three-dimensional space. Because the motion capture system based on machine vision often encounters problems such as occlusion or self occlusion in the application scene, human motion capture is still a challenging problem in the current research field. This article designs a multi perspective human motion trajectory capture algorithm framework, which uses a two-dimensional human motion pose estimation algorithm based on deep learning to estimate the position distribution of human joint points on the two-dimensional image from each perspective. By combining the knowledge of camera poses from multiple perspectives, the three-dimensional spatial distribution of joint points is transformed, and the final evaluation result of the target human 3D pose is obtained. This article applies the research results of neural networks and IoT devices to basketball motion capture methods, further developing basketball motion capture systems.

The nexus between digitalization and sustainability: A scientometrics analysis

Digitalization and sustainability are among the most critical mega-trends in 21st century. The nexus between digitalization and sustainability unfolds exciting opportunities in addressing global challenges, creating a just and sustainable society and laying the groundwork for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Several studies have reviewed the link between these two paradigms and how they mutually impact one another. However, most of these reviews are qualitative and manual literature reviews that are prone to subjectivity and so lacking the required rigor. Given the above, this study aims to provide a comprehensive and objective review of the knowledge base on how digitalization and sustainability actually and potentially contribute to each other and highlight the key research that links these two megatrends. A comprehensive bibliometric analysis of academic literature is conducted to objectively visualize the research status quo across time, disciplines, and countries. The Web of Science (WOS) database was searched for relevant publications published between January 1, 1900, and October 31, 2021. The search returned 8629 publications, of which 3405 were identified as primary documents pertaining to the study presented below. The Scientometrics analysis identified prominent authors, nations, organizations, prevalent research issues and examined how they have evolved chronologically. The critical review of results reveals four main domains in research on the nexus of sustainability and digitalization including Governance, Energy, Innovation, and Systems. The concept of Governance is developed within the Planning and Policy-making themes. Energy relates to the themes of emission, consumption, and production. Innovation has associated with the themes of business, strategy, and values & environment. Finally, systems interconnect with networks, industry 4.0, and the supply chain. The findings are intended to inform and stimulate more research and policy-making debate on the potential interconnection between sustainability and digitization, particularly in the post-COVID-19 era.

Machine Learning for Industry 4.0: A Systematic Review Using Deep Learning-Based Topic Modelling

Machine learning (ML) has a well-established reputation for successfully enabling automation through its scalable predictive power. Industry 4.0 encapsulates a new stage of industrial processes and value chains driven by smart connection and automation. Large-scale problems within these industrial settings are a prime example of an environment that can benefit from ML. However, a clear view of how ML currently intersects with industry 4.0 is difficult to grasp without reading an infeasible number of papers. This systematic review strives to provide such a view by gathering a collection of 45,783 relevant papers from Scopus and Web of Science and analysing it with BERTopic. We analyse the key topics to understand what industry applications receive the most attention and which ML methods are used the most. Moreover, we manually reviewed 17 white papers of consulting firms to compare the academic landscape to an industry perspective. We found that security and predictive maintenance were the most common topics, CNNs were the most used ML method and industry companies, at the moment, generally focus more on enabling successful adoption rather than building better ML models. The academic topics are meaningful and relevant but technology focused on making ML adoption easier deserves more attention.

"AI for all" is a matter of social justice

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a radically transformative technology (or system of technologies) that created new existential possibilities and new standards of well-being in human societies. In this article, I argue that to properly understand the increasingly important role AI plays in our society, we must consider its impacts on social justice. For this reason, I propose to conceptualize AI's transformative role and its socio-political implications through the lens of the theory of social justice known as the Capability Approach. According to the approach, a just society must put its members in a position to acquire and exercise a series of basic capabilities and provide them with the necessary means for these capabilities to be actively realized. Because AI is re-shaping the very definition of some of these basic capabilities, I conclude that AI itself should be considered among the conditions of possession and realization of the capabilities it transforms. In other words, access to AI-in the many forms this access can take-is necessary for social justice.

Spatio-temporal estimation of wind speed and wind power using extreme learning machines: predictions, uncertainty and technical potential

With wind power providing an increasing amount of electricity worldwide, the quantification of its spatio-temporal variations and the related uncertainty is crucial for energy planners and policy-makers. Here, we propose a methodological framework which (1) uses machine learning to reconstruct a spatio-temporal field of wind speed on a regular grid from spatially irregularly distributed measurements and (2) transforms the wind speed to wind power estimates. Estimates of both model and prediction uncertainties, and of their propagation after transforming wind speed to power, are provided without any assumptions on data distributions. The methodology is applied to study hourly wind power potential on a grid of 250 × 250  m 2 for turbines of 100 m hub height in Switzerland, generating the first dataset of its type for the country. We show that the average annual power generation per turbine is 4.4 GWh. Results suggest that around 12,000 wind turbines could be installed on all 19,617 km 2 of available area in Switzerland resulting in a maximum technical wind potential of 53 TWh. To achieve the Swiss expansion goals of wind power for 2050, around 1000 turbines would be sufficient, corresponding to only 8% of the maximum estimated potential.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02219-w.

Toward a Practical Digital Twin Platform Tailored to the Requirements of Industrial Energy Systems

Digitalization and concepts such as digital twins (DT) are expected to have huge potential to improve efficiency in industry, in particular, in the energy sector. Although the number and maturity of DT concepts is increasing, there is still no standardized framework available for the implementation of DTs for industrial energy systems (IES). On the one hand, most proposals focus on the conceptual side of components and leave most implementation details unaddressed. Specific implementations, on the other hand, rarely follow recognized reference architectures and standards. Furthermore, most related work on DTs is done in manufacturing, which differs from DTs in energy systems in various aspects, regarding, for example, multiple time-scales, strong nonlinearities and uncertainties. In the present work, we identify the most important requirements for DTs of IES. We propose a DT platform based on the five-dimensional DT modeling concept with a low level of abstraction that is tailored to the identified requirements. We address current technical implementation barriers and provide practical solutions for them. Our work should pave the way to standardized DT platforms and the efficient encapsulation of DT service engineering by domain experts. Thus, DTs could be easy to implement in various IES-related use cases, host any desired models and services, and help get the most out of the individual applications. This ultimately helps bridge the interdisciplinary gap between the latest research on DTs in the domain of computer science and industrial automation and the actual implementation and value creation in the traditional energy sector.

A Review on the Adoption of AI, BC, and IoT in Sustainability Research

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain (BC), and the internet of things (IoT) has had significant applications in the advancement of sustainability research. This review examines how these digital transformations drive natural and human systems, as well as which industry sectors have been applying them to advance sustainability. We adopted qualitative research methods, including a bibliometric analysis, in which we screened 960 publications to identify the leading sectors that apply AI/BC/IoT, and a content analysis to identify how each sector uses AI/BC/IoT to advance sustainability. We identified “smart city”, “energy system”, and “supply chain” as key leading sectors. Of these technologies, IoT received the most real-world applications in the “smart city” sector under the dimensions of “smart environment” and “smart mobility” and provided applications resolving energy consumption in the “energy system” sector. AI effectively resolved scheduling, prediction, and monitoring for both the “smart city” and “energy system” sectors. BC remained highly theoretical for “supply chain”, with limited applications. The technological integration of AI and IoT is a research trend for the “smart city” and “energy system” sectors, while BC and IoT is proposed for the “supply chain”. We observed a surge in AI/BC/IoT sustainability research since 2016 and a new research trend—technological integration—since 2020. Collectively, six of the United Nation’s seventeen sustainable development goals (i.e., 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13) have been the most widely involved with these technologies.

Analysis of Renewable Energy Policies through Decision Trees

This paper presents an alternative way of making predictions on the effectiveness and efficacy of Renewable Energy (RE) policies using Decision Trees (DT). As a data-driven process for decision-making, the analysis uses the Renewable Energy (RE) target achievement, predicting whether or not a RE target will likely be achieved (efficacy) and to what degree (effectiveness), depending on the different criteria, including geographical context, characterizing concerns, and policy characteristics. The results suggest different criteria that could help policymakers in designing policies with a higher propensity to achieve the desired goal. Using this tool, the policy decision-makers can better test/predict whether the target will be achieved and to what degree. The novelty in the present paper is the application of Machine Learning methods (through the Decision Trees) for energy policy analysis. Machine learning methodologies present an alternative way to pilot RE policies before spending lots of time, money, and other resources. We also find that using Machine Learning techniques underscores the importance of data availability. A general summary for policymakers has been included.

Interpreted Petri Nets Applied to Autonomous Components within Electric Power Systems

In this article, interpreted Petri nets are applied to the area of power and energy systems. These kinds of nets, equipped with input and output signals for communication with the environment, have so far proved to be useful in the specification of control systems and cyber–physical systems (in particular, the control part), but they have not been used in power systems themselves. Here, interpreted Petri nets are applied to the specification of autonomous parts within power and energy systems. An electric energy storage (EES) system is presented as an application system for the provision of a system service for stabilizing the power of renewable energy sources (RES) or highly variable loads. The control algorithm for the EES is formally written as an interpreted Petri net, allowing it to benefit from existing analysis and verification methods. In particular, essential properties of such specifications can be checked, including, e.g., liveness, safety, reversibility, and determinism. This enables early detection of possible structural errors. The results indicate that interpreted Petri nets can be successfully used to model and analyze autonomous control components within power energy systems.

Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Energy Systems: A Review

With population increases and a vital need for energy, energy systems play an important and decisive role in all of the sectors of society. To accelerate the process and improve the methods of responding to this increase in energy demand, the use of models and algorithms based on artificial intelligence has become common and mandatory. In the present study, a comprehensive and detailed study has been conducted on the methods and applications of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL), which are the newest and most practical models based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) for use in energy systems. It should be noted that due to the development of DL algorithms, which are usually more accurate and less error, the use of these algorithms increases the ability of the model to solve complex problems in this field. In this article, we have tried to examine DL algorithms that are very powerful in problem solving but have received less attention in other studies, such as RNN, ANFIS, RBN, DBN, WNN, and so on. This research uses knowledge discovery in research databases to understand ML and DL applications in energy systems’ current status and future. Subsequently, the critical areas and research gaps are identified. In addition, this study covers the most common and efficient applications used in this field; optimization, forecasting, fault detection, and other applications of energy systems are investigated. Attempts have also been made to cover most of the algorithms and their evaluation metrics, including not only algorithms that are more important, but also newer ones that have received less attention.

Drivers of Digitalization in the Energy Sector—The Managerial Perspective from the Catching Up Economy

This article attempts to identify the key forces driving the successful digitalization of the energy sector, ensuring improvements in the energy triangle including sustainability, stability, and economic performance. The article sheds light on the diverse energy priorities at supra-, national, and managerial levels, and the role of digitalization in achieving these objectives. Catching up economies (such as Poland), being post-socialist EU member states, in order to transform its energetic sector, must overcome a number of infrastructural and social shortcomings retained as a legacy of the socialist economy. As such, sustainability (as the core priority at EU energy agenda) may not be the leading objective at both national and company level in the energy sector transformation. This article presents the results of empirical research carried out through distribution of e-questionnaire addressed to Polish managers from the energy sector. The results were analyzed using the fsQCA method. The findings suggest that, for managers, the most important drivers of digitalization and transformation of the energy sector in Poland are its high economic performance, together with support for energy prosumers and consumers. The prerequisites for a successful digitalization are alternatively the absence of management barriers, or a combination of high economic performance and a strong focus on environmental protection. Surprisingly, according to managers surveyed, the rapid implementation of new technologies is not considered a vital condition for successful digital transformation of the energy sector, which implies either or managerial lack of knowledge in this area and/or a reluctance to introduce digital rapid technologies.

Elucidating the effect of process parameters on the production of hydrogen-rich syngas by biomass and coal Co-gasification techniques: A multi-criteria modeling approach

The thermochemical processes such as gasification and co-gasification of biomass and coal are promising route for producing hydrogen-rich syngas. However, the process is characterized with complex reactions that pose a tremendous challenge in terms of controlling the process variables. This challenge can be overcome using appropriate machine learning algorithm to model the nonlinear complex relationship between the predictors and the targeted response. Hence, this study aimed to employ various machine learning algorithms such as regression models, support vector machine regression (SVM), gaussian processing regression (GPR), and artificial neural networks (ANN) for modeling hydrogen-rich syngas production by gasification and co-gasification of biomass and coal. A total of 12 machine learning algorithms which comprises the regression models, SVM, GPR, and ANN were configured, trained using 124 datasets. The performances of the algorithms were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). In all cases, the ANN algorithms offer superior performances and displayed robust predictions of the hydrogen-rich syngas from the co-gasification processes. The R² of both the Levenberg-Marquardt- and Bayesian Regularization-trained ANN obtained from the prediction of the hydrogen-rich syngas was found to be within 0.857-0.998 with low prediction errors. The sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of the process parameters on the model output revealed that all the parameters showed a varying level of influence. In most of the processes, the gasification temperature was found to have the most significant influence on the model output.

Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review

In this article, a systematic literature review of 419 articles on energy demand modeling, published between 2015 and 2020, is presented. This provides researchers with an exhaustive overview of the examined literature and classification of techniques for energy demand modeling. Unlike in existing literature reviews, in this comprehensive study all of the following aspects of energy demand models are analyzed: techniques, prediction accuracy, inputs, energy carrier, sector, temporal horizon, and spatial granularity. Readers benefit from easy access to a broad literature base and find decision support when choosing suitable data-model combinations for their projects. Results have been compiled in comprehensive figures and tables, providing a structured summary of the literature, and containing direct references to the analyzed articles. Drawbacks of techniques are discussed as well as countermeasures. The results show that among the articles, machine learning (ML) techniques are used the most, are mainly applied to short-term electricity forecasting on a regional level and rely on historic load as their main data source. Engineering-based models are less dependent on historic load data and cover appliance consumption on long temporal horizons. Metaheuristic and uncertainty techniques are often used in hybrid models. Statistical techniques are frequently used for energy demand modeling as well and often serve as benchmarks for other techniques. Among the articles, the accuracy measured by mean average percentage error (MAPE) proved to be on similar levels for all techniques. This review eases the reader into the subject matter by presenting the emphases that have been made in the current literature, suggesting future research directions, and providing the basis for quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding applicability and dominance of specific methods for sub-categories of demand modeling.

Artificial Neural Networks Based Optimization Techniques: A Review

In the last few years, intensive research has been done to enhance artificial intelligence (AI) using optimization techniques. In this paper, we present an extensive review of artificial neural networks (ANNs) based optimization algorithm techniques with some of the famous optimization techniques, e.g., genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), artificial bee colony (ABC), and backtracking search algorithm (BSA) and some modern developed techniques, e.g., the lightning search algorithm (LSA) and whale optimization algorithm (WOA), and many more. The entire set of such techniques is classified as algorithms based on a population where the initial population is randomly created. Input parameters are initialized within the specified range, and they can provide optimal solutions. This paper emphasizes enhancing the neural network via optimization algorithms by manipulating its tuned parameters or training parameters to obtain the best structure network pattern to dissolve the problems in the best way. This paper includes some results for improving the ANN performance by PSO, GA, ABC, and BSA optimization techniques, respectively, to search for optimal parameters, e.g., the number of neurons in the hidden layers and learning rate. The obtained neural net is used for solving energy management problems in the virtual power plant system.

Sustainability, Big Data and Mathematical Techniques: A Bibliometric Review

This article has reviewed international research, up to the first half of 2021, focused on sustainability, big data and the mathematical techniques used for its analysis. In addition, a study of the spatial component (city, region, nation and beyond) of the works has been carried out and an analysis has been made of which Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have received the most attention. A bibliometric analysis and a fractal cluster analysis were performed on the papers published in the Web of Science. The results show a continuous increase in the number of published articles and citations over the whole period, demonstrating a growing interest in this topic. China, the United States and India are the most productive countries and there are more papers at the regional level. It has been found that the environmental dimension is the most studied and the least studied is the social dimension. The mathematical techniques used in the empirical work are mainly regression analysis, neural networks and multi-criteria decision methods. SDG9 and SDG11 are the most worked on. The trend shows a convergence in recent years towards big data applied to supply chains, Industry 4.0 and the achievement of sustainable cities.

A Review on Machine Learning Application in Biodiesel Production Studies

The consumption of fossil fuels has exponentially increased in recent decades, despite significant air pollution, environmental deterioration challenges, health problems, and limited resources. Biofuel can be used instead of fossil fuel due to environmental benefits and availability to produce various energy sorts like electricity, power, and heating or to sustain transportation fuels. Biodiesel production is an intricate process that requires identifying unknown nonlinear relationships between the system input and output data; therefore, accurate and swift modeling instruments like machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) are necessary to design, handle, control, optimize, and monitor the system. Among the biodiesel production modeling methods, machine learning provides better predictions with the highest accuracy, inspired by the brain’s autolearning and self-improving capability to solve the study’s complicated questions; therefore, it is beneficial for modeling (trans) esterification processes, physicochemical properties, and monitoring biodiesel systems in real-time. Machine learning applications in the production phase include quality optimization and estimation, process conditions, and quantity. Emissions composition and temperature estimation and motor performance analysis investigate in the consumption phase. Fatty methyl acid ester stands as the output parameter, and the input parameters include oil and catalyst type, methanol-to-oil ratio, catalyst concentration, reaction time, domain, and frequency. This paper will present a review and discuss various ML technology advantages, disadvantages, and applications in biodiesel production, mainly focused on recently published articles from 2010 to 2021, to make decisions and optimize, model, control, monitor, and forecast biodiesel production.

Machine Learning and GIS Approach for Electrical Load Assessment to Increase Distribution Networks Resilience

Currently, distribution system operators (DSOs) are asked to operate distribution grids, managing the rise of the distributed generators (DGs), the rise of the load correlated to heat pump and e-mobility, etc. Nevertheless, they are asked to minimize investments in new sensors and telecommunication links and, consequently, several nodes of the grid are still not monitored and tele-controlled. At the same time, DSOs are asked to improve the network’s resilience, looking for a reduction in the frequency and impact of power outages caused by extreme weather events. The paper presents a machine learning GIS-based approach to estimate a secondary substation’s load profiles, even in those cases where monitoring sensors are not deployed. For this purpose, a large amount of data from different sources has been collected and integrated to describe secondary substation load profiles adequately. Based on real measurements of some secondary substations (medium-voltage to low-voltage interface) given by Unareti, the DSO of Milan, and georeferenced data gathered from open-source databases, unknown secondary substations load profiles are estimated. Three types of machine learning algorithms, regression tree, boosting, and random forest, as well as geographic information system (GIS) information, such as secondary substation locations, building area, types of occupants, etc., are considered to find the most effective approach.

Systematic Review of Electricity Demand Forecast Using ANN-Based Machine Learning Algorithms

The forecast of electricity demand has been a recurrent research topic for decades, due to its economical and strategic relevance. Several Machine Learning (ML) techniques have evolved in parallel with the complexity of the electric grid. This paper reviews a wide selection of approaches that have used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to forecast electricity demand, aiming to help newcomers and experienced researchers to appraise the common practices and to detect areas where there is room for improvement in the face of the current widespread deployment of smart meters and sensors, which yields an unprecedented amount of data to work with. The review looks at the specific problems tackled by each one of the selected papers, the results attained by their algorithms, and the strategies followed to validate and compare the results. This way, it is possible to highlight some peculiarities and algorithm configurations that seem to consistently outperform others in specific settings.

Educating the energy informatics specialist: opportunities and challenges in light of research and industrial trends

Abstract

Contemporary energy research is becoming more interdisciplinary through the involvement of technical, economic, and social aspects that must be addressed simultaneously. Within such interdisciplinary energy research, the novel domain of energy informatics plays an important role, as it involves different disciplines addressing the socio-techno-economic challenges of sustainable energy and power systems in a holistic manner. The objective of this paper is to draw an overview of the novel domain of energy informatics by addressing the educational opportunities as well as related challenges in light of current trends and the future direction of research and industrial innovation. In this study we discuss the energy informatics domain in a way that goes beyond a purely scientific research perspective. This paper widens the analyses by including reflections on current and future didactic approaches with industrial innovation and research as a background. This paper provides key recommendations for the content of a foundational introductory energy informatics course, as well as suggestions on distinguishing features to be addressed through more specialized courses in the field. The importance of this work is based on the need for better guidelines for a more appropriate education of a new generation of experts who can take on the novel interdisciplinary challenges present in future integrated, sustainable energy systems.

Article highlights

Didactic approaches in the energy informatics domain are discussed based on research and industrial trends.Research trends and industrial innovation driven by energy informatics are investigated.A fundamental framework for an energy informatics course is defined together with specialized distinguishing features.

Benchmarking Energy Quantification Methods to Predict Heating Energy Performance of Residential Buildings in Germany

To achieve ambitious climate goals, it is necessary to increase the rate of purposeful retrofit measures in the building sector. As a result, Energy Performance Certificates have been designed as important evaluation and rating criterion to increase the retrofit rate in the EU and Germany. Yet, today’s most frequently used and legally required methods to quantify building energy performance show low prediction accuracy, as recent research reveals. To enhance prediction accuracy, the research community introduced data-driven methods which obtained promising results. However, there are no insights in how far Energy Quantification Methods are particularly suited for energy performance prediction. In this research article the data-driven methods Artificial Neural Network, D-vine copula quantile regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression are compared with and validated by real-world Energy Performance Certificates of German residential buildings issued by qualified auditors using the engineering method required by law. The results, tested for robustness and systematic bias, show that all data-driven methods exceed the engineering method by almost 50% in terms of prediction accuracy. In contrast to existing literature favoring Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression, all tested methods show similar prediction accuracy with marginal advantages for Extreme Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regression in terms of prediction accuracy. Given the higher prediction accuracy of data-driven methods, it seems appropriate to revise the current legislation prescribing engineering methods. In addition, data-driven methods could support different organizations, e.g., asset management, in decision-making in order to reduce financial risk and to cut expenses.

Prospective Methodologies in Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Energy Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents a comprehensive review of machine learning (ML) based approaches, especially artificial neural networks (ANNs) in time series data prediction problems. According to literature, around 80% of the world’s total energy demand is supplied either through fuel-based sources such as oil, gas, and coal or through nuclear-based sources. Literature also shows that a shortage of fossil fuels is inevitable and the world will face this problem sooner or later. Moreover, the remote and rural areas that suffer from not being able to reach traditional grid power electricity need alternative sources of energy. A “hybrid-renewable-energy system” (HRES) involving different renewable resources can be used to supply sustainable power in these areas. The uncertain nature of renewable energy resources and the intelligent ability of the neural network approach to process complex time series inputs have inspired the use of ANN methods in renewable energy forecasting. Thus, this study aims to study the different data driven models of ANN approaches that can provide accurate predictions of renewable energy, like solar, wind, or hydro-power generation. Various refinement architectures of neural networks, such as “multi-layer perception” (MLP), “recurrent-neural network” (RNN), and “convolutional-neural network” (CNN), as well as “long-short-term memory” (LSTM) models, have been offered in the applications of renewable energy forecasting. These models are able to perform short-term time-series prediction in renewable energy sources and to use prior information that influences its value in future prediction.

Application of Decision Trees for Optimal Allocation of Harmonic Filters in Medium-Voltage Networks

The paper proposes a solution for the problem of optimizing medium voltage power systems which supply, among others, nonlinear loads. It is focused on decision tree (DT) application for the sizing and allocation of active power filters (APFs), which are the most effective means of power quality improvement. Propositions of some DT strategies followed by the results have been described in the paper. On the basis of an example of a medium-voltage network, an analysis of the selection of the number and allocation of active power filters was carried out in terms of minimizing losses and costs keeping under control voltage total harmonic distortion (THD) coefficients in the network nodes. The presented example shows that decision trees allow for the selection of the optimal solution, depending on assumed limitations, expected effects, and costs.

Systematic Review of Machine Learning Applications in Mining: Exploration, Exploitation, and Reclamation

Recent developments in smart mining technology have enabled the production, collection, and sharing of a large amount of data in real time. Therefore, research employing machine learning (ML) that utilizes these data is being actively conducted in the mining industry. In this study, we reviewed 109 research papers, published over the past decade, that discuss ML techniques for mineral exploration, exploitation, and mine reclamation. Research trends, ML models, and evaluation methods primarily discussed in the 109 papers were systematically analyzed. The results demonstrated that ML studies have been actively conducted in the mining industry since 2018, mostly for mineral exploration. Among the ML models, support vector machine was utilized the most, followed by deep learning models. The ML models were evaluated mostly in terms of their root mean square error and coefficient of determination.

Optimization Techniques for Mining Power Quality Data and Processing Unbalanced Datasets in Machine Learning Applications

In recent years, machine learning applications have received increasing interest from power system researchers. The successful performance of these applications is dependent on the availability of extensive and diverse datasets for the training and validation of machine learning frameworks. However, power systems operate at quasi-steady-state conditions for most of the time, and the measurements corresponding to these states provide limited novel knowledge for the development of machine learning applications. In this paper, a data mining approach based on optimization techniques is proposed for filtering root-mean-square (RMS) voltage profiles and identifying unusual measurements within triggerless power quality datasets. Then, datasets with equal representation between event and non-event observations are created so that machine learning algorithms can extract useful insights from the rare but important event observations. The proposed framework is demonstrated and validated with both synthetic signals and field data measurements.

Artificial Intelligence Evolution in Smart Buildings for Energy Efficiency

The emerging concept of smart buildings, which requires the incorporation of sensors and big data (BD) and utilizes artificial intelligence (AI), promises to usher in a new age of urban energy efficiency. By using AI technologies in smart buildings, energy consumption can be reduced through better control, improved reliability, and automation. This paper is an in-depth review of recent studies on the application of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in smart buildings through the concept of a building management system (BMS) and demand response programs (DRPs). In addition to elaborating on the principles and applications of the AI-based modeling approaches widely used in building energy use prediction, an evaluation framework is introduced and used for assessing the recent research conducted in this field and across the major AI domains, including energy, comfort, design, and maintenance. Finally, the paper includes a discussion on the open challenges and future directions of research on the application of AI in smart buildings.

A Review of Control Techniques in Photovoltaic Systems

Complex control structures are required for the operation of photovoltaic electrical energy systems. In this paper, a general review of the controllers used for photovoltaic systems is presented. This review is based on the most recent papers presented in the literature. The control architectures considered are complex hybrid systems that combine classical and modern techniques, such as artificial intelligence and statistical models. The main contribution of this paper is the synthesis of a generalized control structure and the identification of the latest trends. The main findings are summarized in the development of increasingly robust controllers for operation with improved efficiency, power quality, stability, safety, and economics.

A Systematic Review of Statistical and Machine Learning Methods for Electrical Power Forecasting with Reported MAPE Score

Electric power forecasting plays a substantial role in the administration and balance of current power systems. For this reason, accurate predictions of service demands are needed to develop better programming for the generation and distribution of power and to reduce the risk of vulnerabilities in the integration of an electric power system. For the purposes of the current study, a systematic literature review was applied to identify the type of model that has the highest propensity to show precision in the context of electric power forecasting. The state-of-the-art model in accurate electric power forecasting was determined from the results reported in 257 accuracy tests from five geographic regions. Two classes of forecasting models were compared: classical statistical or mathematical (MSC) and machine learning (ML) models. Furthermore, the use of hybrid models that have made significant contributions to electric power forecasting is identified, and a case of study is applied to demonstrate its good performance when compared with traditional models. Among our main findings, we conclude that forecasting errors are minimized by reducing the time horizon, that ML models that consider various sources of exogenous variability tend to have better forecast accuracy, and finally, that the accuracy of the forecasting models has significantly increased over the last five years.

Event Effects Estimation on Electricity Demand Forecasting

We consider the problem of short-term electricity demand forecasting in a small-scale area. Electric power usage depends heavily on irregular daily events. Event information must be incorporated into the forecasting model to obtain high forecast accuracy. The electricity fluctuation due to daily events is considered to be a basis function of time period in a regression model. We present several basis functions that extract the characteristics of the event effect. When the basis function cannot be specified, we employ the fused lasso for automatic construction of the basis function. With the fused lasso, some coefficients of neighboring time periods take exactly the same values, leading to stable basis function estimation and enhancement of interpretation. Our proposed method is applied to the electricity demand data of a research facility in Japan. The results show that our proposed model yields better forecast accuracy than a model that omits event information; our proposed method resulted in roughly 12% and 20% improvements in mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error, respectively.

Training Multilayer Perceptron with Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization for Modeling Stock Price Index Prediction

Predicting stock market (SM) trends is an issue of great interest among researchers, investors and traders since the successful prediction of SMs' direction may promise various benefits. Because of the fairly nonlinear nature of the historical data, accurate estimation of the SM direction is a rather challenging issue. The aim of this study is to present a novel machine learning (ML) model to forecast the movement of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index. Modeling was performed by multilayer perceptron-genetic algorithms (MLP-GA) and multilayer perceptron-particle swarm optimization (MLP-PSO) in two scenarios considering Tanh (x) and the default Gaussian function as the output function. The historical financial time series data utilized in this research is from 1996 to 2020, consisting of nine technical indicators. Results are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and correlation coefficient values to compare the accuracy and performance of the developed models. Based on the results, the involvement of the Tanh (x) as the output function, improved the accuracy of models compared with the default Gaussian function, significantly. MLP-PSO with population size 125, followed by MLP-GA with population size 50, provided higher accuracy for testing, reporting RMSE of 0.732583 and 0.733063, MAPE of 28.16%, 29.09% and correlation coefficient of 0.694 and 0.695, respectively. According to the results, using the hybrid ML method could successfully improve the prediction accuracy.

COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and these models are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models need to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP; and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior across nations, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. This paper further suggests that a genuine novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized by integrating machine learning and SEIR models.

Robust Design Optimization and Emerging Technologies for Electrical Machines: Challenges and Open Problems

The bio-inspired algorithms are novel, modern, and efficient tools for the design of electrical machines. However, from the mathematical point of view, these problems belong to the most general branch of non-linear optimization problems, where these tools cannot guarantee that a global minimum is found. The numerical cost and the accuracy of these algorithms depend on the initialization of their internal parameters, which may themselves be the subject of parameter tuning according to the application. In practice, these optimization problems are even more challenging, because engineers are looking for robust designs, which are not sensitive to the tolerances and the manufacturing uncertainties. These criteria further increase these computationally expensive problems due to the additional evaluations of the goal function. The goal of this paper is to give an overview of the widely used optimization techniques in electrical machinery and to summarize the challenges and open problems in the applications of the robust design optimization and the prospects in the case of the newly emerging technologies.

A Survey of Machine Learning Models in Renewable Energy Predictions

The use of renewable energy to reduce the effects of climate change and global warming has become an increasing trend. In order to improve the prediction ability of renewable energy, various prediction techniques have been developed. The aims of this review are illustrated as follows. First, this survey attempts to provide a review and analysis of machine-learning models in renewable-energy predictions. Secondly, this study depicts procedures, including data pre-processing techniques, parameter selection algorithms, and prediction performance measurements, used in machine-learning models for renewable-energy predictions. Thirdly, the analysis of sources of renewable energy, values of the mean absolute percentage error, and values of the coefficient of determination were conducted. Finally, some possible potential opportunities for future work were provided at end of this survey.

Solar power generation forecasting using ensemble approach based on deep learning and statistical methods

Solar power forecasting will have a significant impact on the future of large-scale renewable energy plants. Predicting photovoltaic power generation depends heavily on climate conditions, which fluctuate over time. In this research, we propose a hybrid model that combines machine-learning methods with Theta statistical method for more accurate prediction of future solar power generation from renewable energy plants. The machine learning models include long short-term memory (LSTM), gate recurrent unit (GRU), AutoEncoder LSTM (Auto-LSTM) and a newly proposed Auto-GRU. To enhance the accuracy of the proposed Machine learning and Statistical Hybrid Model (MLSHM), we employ two diversity techniques, i.e. structural diversity and data diversity. To combine the prediction of the ensemble members in the proposed MLSHM, we exploit four combining methods: simple averaging approach, weighted averaging using linear approach and using non-linear approach, and combination through variance using inverse approach. The proposed MLSHM scheme was validated on two real-time series datasets, that sre Shagaya in Kuwait and Cocoa in the USA. The experiments show that the proposed MLSHM, using all the combination methods, achieved higher accuracy compared to the prediction of the traditional individual models. Results demonstrate that a hybrid model combining machine-learning methods with statistical method outperformed a hybrid model that only combines machine-learning models without statistical method.

Blockchain Evaluation Approaches: State-of-the-Art and Future Perspective

The present increase of attention toward blockchain-based systems is currently reaching a tipping point with the corporate focus shifting from exploring the technology potential to creating Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT)-based systems. In light of a significant number of already existing blockchain applications driven by the Internet of Things (IoT) evolution, the developers are still facing a lack of tools and instruments for appropriate and efficient performance evaluation and behavior observation of different blockchain architectures. This paper aims at providing a systematic review of current blockchain evaluation approaches and at identifying the corresponding utilization challenges and limitations. First, we outline the main metrics related to the blockchain evaluation. Second, we propose the blockchain modeling and analysis classification based on the critical literature review. Third, we extend the review with publicly accessible industrial tools. Next, we analyze the selected results for each of the proposed classes and outline the corresponding limitations. Finally, we identify current challenges of the blockchain analysis from the system evaluation perspective, as well as provide future perspectives.

Advanced PV Performance Modelling Based on Different Levels of Irradiance Data Accuracy

In photovoltaic (PV) systems, energy yield is one of the essential pieces of information to the stakeholders (grid operators, maintenance operators, financial units, etc.). The amount of energy produced by a photovoltaic system in a specific time period depends on the weather conditions, including snow and dust, the actual PV modules’ and inverters’ efficiency and balance-of-system losses. The energy yield can be estimated by using empirical models with accurate input data. However, most of the PV systems do not include on-site high-class measurement devices for irradiance and other weather conditions. For this reason, the use of reanalysis-based or satellite-based data is currently of significant interest in the PV community and combining the data with decomposition and transposition irradiance models, the actual Plane-of-Array operating conditions can be determined. In this paper, we are proposing an efficient and accurate approach for PV output energy modelling by combining a new data filtering procedure and fast machine learning algorithm Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). The applicability of the procedure is presented on three levels of irradiance data accuracy (low, medium, and high) depending on the source or modelling used. A new filtering algorithm is proposed to exclude erroneous data due to system failures or unreal weather conditions (i.e., shading, partial snow coverage, reflections, soiling deposition, etc.). The cleaned data is then used to train three empirical models and three machine learning approaches, where we emphasize the advantages of the LightGBM. The experiments are carried out on a 17 kW roof-top PV system installed in Ljubljana, Slovenia, in a temperate climate zone.

Earthquake Prediction Using Expert Systems: A Systematic Mapping Study

Earthquake is one of the most hazardous natural calamity. Many algorithms have been proposed for earthquake prediction using expert systems (ES). We aim to identify and compare methods, models, frameworks, and tools used to forecast earthquakes using different parameters. We have conducted a systematic mapping study based upon 70 systematically selected high quality peer reviewed research articles involving ES for earthquake prediction, published between January 2010 and January 2020.To the best of our knowledge, there is no recent study that provides a comprehensive survey of this research area. The analysis shows that most of the proposed models have attempted long term predictions about time, intensity, and location of future earthquakes. The article discusses different variants of rule-based, fuzzy, and machine learning based expert systems for earthquake prediction. Moreover, the discussion covers regional and global seismic data sets used, tools employed, to predict earth quake for different geographical regions. Bibliometric and meta-information based analysis has been performed by classifying the articles according to research type, empirical type, approach, target area, and system specific parameters. Lastly, it also presents a taxonomy of earthquake prediction approaches, and research evolution during the last decade.

A Machine Learning Approach to Low-Cost Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Publicly Available Weather Reports

A fully automated transferable predictive approach was developed to predict photovoltaic (PV) power output for a forecasting horizon of 24 h. The prediction of PV power output was made with the help of a long short-term memory machine learning algorithm. The main challenge of the approach was using (1) publicly available weather reports without solar irradiance values and (2) measured PV power without any technical information about the PV system. Using this input data, the developed model can predict the power output of the investigated PV systems with adequate accuracy. The lowest seasonal mean absolute scaled error of the prediction was reached by maximum size of the training set. Transferability of the developed approach was proven by making predictions of the PV power for warm and cold periods and for two different PV systems located in Oldenburg and Munich, Germany. The PV power prediction made with publicly available weather data was compared to the predictions made with fee-based solar irradiance data. The usage of the solar irradiance data led to more accurate predictions even with a much smaller training set. Although the model with publicly available weather data needed greater training sets, it could still make adequate predictions.

Modeling Pan Evaporation Using Gaussian Process Regression K-Nearest Neighbors Random Forest and Support Vector Machines; Comparative Analysis

Evaporation is a very important process; it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, evaporation is considered as a complex and nonlinear phenomenon to model. Thus, machine learning methods have gained popularity in this realm. In the present study, four machine learning methods of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to predict the pan evaporation (PE). Meteorological data including PE, temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (W), and sunny hours (S) collected from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. The results of this study showed that at Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations, GPR with RMSE of 1.521 mm/day, 1.244 mm/day, and 1.254 mm/day, KNN with RMSE of 1.991 mm/day, 1.775 mm/day, and 1.577 mm/day, RF with RMSE of 1.614 mm/day, 1.337 mm/day, and 1.316 mm/day, and SVR with RMSE of 1.55 mm/day, 1.262 mm/day, and 1.275 mm/day had more appropriate performances in estimating PE values. It was found that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W and S had the most accurate predictions and were proposed for precise estimation of PE. The findings of the current study indicated that the PE values may be accurately estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters.

A Model to Forecast Methane Emissions from Topical and Subtropical Reservoirs on the Basis of Artificial Neural Networks

In view of the great paucity of information on the exact contributions of different causes which lead to different extents of emission of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) form reservoirs, it is tremendously challenging to develop statistical or analytical models for forecasting such emissions. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have the ability to discern linear or non-linear relationships despite very limited data inputs and can recognize even complex patterns in a data set without a priori understating of the underlying mechanism. Hence, we have used ANNs to develop a model linking CH4 emissions to five of the reservoir parameters about which data is most commonly available in the prior art. Using a compendium of all available data on these parameters, of which a small part was kept aside for use in model validation, it has been possible to develop a model which is able to forecast CH4 emissions with a root mean square error of 37. It indicates a precision significantly better than the ones achieved in previous reports. The model provides a means to estimate CH4 emissions from reservoirs of which age, mean depth, surface area, latitude and longitude are known.