The Role of Open Access Data in Geospatial Electrification Planning and the Achievement of SDG7. An OnSSET-Based Case Study for Malawi

Carbon pricing and system reliability impacts on pathways to universal electricity access in Africa

Off-grid photovoltaic systems have been proposed as a panacea for economies with poor electricity access, offering a lower-cost "leapfrog" over grid infrastructure used in higher-income economies. Previous research examining pathways to electricity access may understate the role of off-grid photovoltaics as it has not considered reliability and carbon pricing impacts. We perform high-resolution geospatial analysis on universal household electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa that includes these aspects via least-cost pathways at different electricity demand levels. Under our "Tier 3" demand reference scenario, 24% of our study's 470 million people obtaining electricity access by 2030 do so via off-grid photovoltaics. Including a unit cost for unmet demand of 0.50 US dollars ($)/kWh, to penalise poor system reliability increases this share to 41%. Applying a carbon price (around $80/tonne CO2-eq) increases it to 38%. Our results indicate considerable diversity in the level of policy intervention needed between countries and suggest several regions where lower levels of policy intervention may be effective.

The impacts of incentive policies on improving private investment for rural electrification in Nigeria - A geospatial study

In Nigeria, 86 million people lack electricity access, the highest number worldwide, predominantly in rural areas. Despite government efforts, constrained budgets necessitate private investors, who, without adequate incentives, are hesitant to commit capital due to perceived high risks. This study identifies three existing incentive policies-concessionary loans, capital subsidy, and financing productive use equipment-aimed at promoting rural electrification in Nigeria. Employing geospatial and regulatory analyses, we evaluate their impact on electrification planning across 22,696 population clusters. While all incentives encourage mini-grids and stand-alone systems, results show varied impacts, predominantly favouring mini-grids. Under the baseline, grid extension is optimal for 66% of clusters, followed by mini-grids (27%) and stand-alone systems (7%). Concessionary loans boost mini-grid and Stand-Alone Systems shares by 10% and 5%, respectively. Capital subsidies increase the mini-grid share to 41%, surpassing concessional loans (37%). Financing productive equipment enhances Stand-Alone Systems and mini-grid shares to 15% and 43%. Incentives impact LCOE, CAPEX, and OPEX, with average LCOE reducing to 0.31 EUR/kWh (concessionary loans), 0.30 EUR/kWh (capital subsidy), and 0.27 EUR/kWh (financing productive use). Financing productive uses proves decisively more effective in lowering costs for mini-grids and stand-alone systems than loans or capital subsidies. The important policy implications of this study reinforce the need for tailored incentives for distinct electrification options.

Exploring long-term electrification pathway dynamics: a case study of Ethiopia

The Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) is extended to provide a long-term geospatial electrification analysis of Ethiopia, focusing on the role of grid- and off-grid technologies to increase residential electricity access under different scenarios. Furthermore, the model explores issues of compatibility between the electricity supply technologies over time. Six potential scenarios towards universal access to electricity in the country are examined based on three pathways; the Ambition pathway sees high demand growth and universal access achieved by 2025, the Slow Down pathway follows a lower demand growth with a slower electrification rate and with a higher share of off-grid technologies, and the Big Business pathway prioritizes grid electricity first for the industrial sector, leading to slower residential electrification. The results show a large focus on grid extension and stand-alone PV deployment for least-cost electrification in case of low grid-generation costs and uninhibited grid expansion. However, in case of a slower grid rollout rate and high demand growth, a more dynamic evolution of the supply system is seen, where mini-grids play an important role in transitional electrification. Similarly, in the case where grid electricity generation comes at a higher cost, mini-grids prove to be cost-competitive with the centralized grid in many areas. Finally, we also show that transitional mini-grids, which are later incorporated into the centralized grid, risk increasing the investments significantly during the periods when these are integrated and mini-grid standards are not successfully implemented. In all cases, existing barriers to decentralized technologies must be removed to ensure off-grid technologies are deployed and potentially integrated with the centralized grid as needed.

A Rising Role for Decentralized Solar Minigrids in Integrated Rural Electrification Planning? Large-Scale, Least-Cost, and Customer-Wise Design of Grid and Off-Grid Supply Systems in Uganda

Increasing Uganda’s low electrification rate is one of the country’s major challenges. Power service is essential to achieve socioeconomic development and poverty reduction, especially in rural areas. This paper shows the advantages of using an integrated (grid and off-grid) electrification model with high geospatial, temporal, and customer-class granularity as the Reference Electrification Model (REM). In universal electrification strategies, REM will help better ascertain the role of minigrids, jointly with grid extension, solar kits, and stand-alone systems. REM has been applied to the Southern Service Territory (SST) to determine the least-cost mix of electrification modes—grid extension, off-grid minigrids, and standalone systems—that satisfies the hourly demand requirements of each customer—residential, commercial, or industrial—considering its individual location. REM incorporates the existing grid layout, the hourly solar local profile, and the catalogs of actual components for network and generation designs. The paper shows that minigrids can provide grid-like service at a significantly lower cost in many circumstances and to a considerable extent. Therefore, minigrid strategies should play a more important role in electrification planning, both transitorily and on a permanent basis, particularly when the central grid suffers from frequent and prolonged blackouts.

Geo-Enabled Sustainable Municipal Energy Planning for Comprehensive Accessibility: A Case in the New Federal Context of Nepal

Energy is a fundamental need of modern society and a basis for economic and social development, and one of the major Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), particularly SDG7. However, the UN’s SDG Report 2021 betrays millions of people living without electricity and one-third of the world’s population deprived of using modern energy cooking services (MECS) through access to electricity. Achieving the SDG7 requires standard approaches and tools that effectively address the geographical, infrastructural, and socioeconomic characteristics of a (rural) municipality of Nepal. Furthermore, Nepal’s Constitution 2015 incorporated a federal system under the purview of a municipality as the local government that has been given the mandate to ensure electricity access and clean energy. To address this, a methodology is developed for local government planning in Nepal in order to identify the optimal mix of electrification options by conducting a detailed geospatial analysis of renewable energy (RE) technologies by exploring accessibility and availability ranging from grid extensions to mini-grid and off-grid solutions, based on (a) life cycle cost and (b) levelized cost of energy. During energy assessment, geospatial and socio-economic data are coupled with household and community level data collected from a mobile survey app, and are exploited to garner energy status-quo and enable local governments to assess the existing situation of energy access/availability and planning. In summary, this paper presents a geo-enabled municipal energy planning method and a comprehensive toolkit to facilitate sustainable energy access to local people.

A GIS-Based Approach to Inform Agriculture-Water-Energy Nexus Planning in the North Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS)

The North Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS) is a vital groundwater source in a notably water-scarce region. However, impetuous agricultural expansion and poor resource management (e.g., over-irrigation, inefficient techniques) over the past decades have raised a number of challenges. In this exploratory study, we introduce an open access GIS-based model to help answer selected timely questions related to the agriculture, water and energy nexus in the region. First, the model uses spatial and tabular data to identify the location and extent of irrigated cropland. Then, it employs spatially explicit climatic datasets and mathematical formulation to estimate water and electricity requirements for groundwater irrigation in all identified locations. Finally, it evaluates selected supply options to meet the electricity demand and suggests the least-cost configuration in each location. Results indicate that full irrigation in the basin requires ~3.25 billion million m3 per year. This translates to ~730 GWh of electricity. Fossil fuels do provide the least-cost electricity supply option due to lower capital and subsidized operating costs. Hence, to improve the competitiveness of renewable technologies (RT) (i.e., solar), a support scheme to drop the capital cost of RTs is critically needed. Finally, moving towards drip irrigation can lead to ~47% of water abstraction savings in the NWSAS area.

Open Data and Energy Analytics

This pioneering Special Issue aims at providing the state-of-the-art on open energy data analytics; its availability in the different contexts, i.e., country peculiarities; and at different scales, i.e., building, district, and regional for data-aware planning and policy-making. Ten high-quality papers were published after a demanding peer review process and are commented on in this Editorial.

National Energy Transition Framework toward SDG7 with Legal Reforms and Policy Bundles: The Case of Taiwan and Its Comparison with Japan

The main problem explored in this study is how Taiwan and other countries meet the challenges of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals regarding energy transition by using legal instruments or policy bundles. This study adopts textual analysis and legal policy analysis as its main form of research methodology, and the theory of energy justice, as well as principles of energy management, to correlate with the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, this study aims to construct an analysis structure for national energy transition and to analyze the current situation within Taiwan’s electricity sector reforms, while providing evidence of the national experience of electrical industry reforms as an international reference. This study also compares the differences between the seventh Sustainable Development Goal relationship and national energy transitions in Taiwan and Japan, based on the similar initiative of the revised Electricity Act with the policy bundle. This study specifically finds that, firstly, the theory for energy justice is connected with the principles for energy management, owing to the same concepts of “Fair Competition”, via the recognition of “Energy Development and Poverty”, which correlates with “Environment Protection”. Therefore, the concept of energy transition proposed in this study integrates national energy development policy goals and combines them with environmental sustainability, the green economy, and social equity. Secondly, the national energy transition in Taiwan is a response to the Sustainable Development Goals, and electricity sector-related laws could be used as legal tools for national energy transition. This study concludes that Taiwanese and Japanese governments can strengthen their environmental regulations to promote fair competition directly, with fair competition then being able to enhance stable electricity supply, to enable these countries to move towards the seventh Sustainable Development Goal and its indicators. Finally, the analysis structure used in this study could be used as a policy analysis tool for other countries during their own energy transition, when a nation is willing to strategically reform its electricity sector and make sustainable choices regarding transition paths and policy bundles that are suitable for the situation of the individual country. Then, a nation can make revisions to its laws and formulate a policy that is in line with local conditions, while as simultaneously implementing the Sustainable Development Goals.

A Retrospective Analysis of Energy Access with a Focus on the Role of Mini-Grids

Achieving universal access to electricity by 2030 is a key part of the Agenda for Sustainable Development, and has its own Sustainable Development Goal, SDG 7.1. This is because electricity services are required for almost all aspects of a modern economy, from the cooling of vaccines to irrigation pumping, to manufacturing and running a business. The achievement of SDG 7.1 will require a thoughtful mix of policy, finance, and technology to be designed and implemented at scale. Yet, the pressing need for an electrification ramp-up is not unprecedented. Many countries (now considered “industrialized”) faced similar challenges about a century ago. Although the existing literature covers a great deal of power systems evolution, there is a gap around the specific role and impact of small, isolated power systems in the early stages of electricity uptake. In this paper, we provide insights based on the review of the historical electrification efforts in four (now middle and high-income) countries. The drivers and context of electrification efforts in early stages are described. Those focus particularly on the role of dispersed, small-scale generation systems (mini-grids). Our analysis shows that electrification follows four loosely defined phases, namely: pilot projects, technological roll-out, economic expansion, and social scale-up. We report a selection of historical mistakes and advances that offer lessons of striking importance for today´s energy access efforts, particularly in regards to the development of mini-grids. We find that today, as historically, multi-stakeholder (e.g., planners, regulators, developers, investors, third party actors) collaboration is key and can help build locally adaptable, economically sustainable and community compatible mini-grids that can accelerate—and lower the societal costs of—universal access to electricity.

Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan

Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.

Predictive mapping of the global power system using open data

Limited data on global power infrastructure makes it difficult to respond to challenges in electricity access and climate change. Although high-voltage data on transmission networks are often available, medium- and low-voltage data are often non-existent or unavailable. This presents a challenge for practitioners working on the electricity access agenda, power sector resilience or climate change adaptation. Using state-of-the-art algorithms in geospatial data analysis, we create a first composite map of the global power system with an open license. We find that 97% of the global population lives within 10 km of a MV line, but with large variations between regions and income levels. We show an accuracy of 75% across our validation set of 14 countries, and we demonstrate the value of these data at both a national and regional level. The results from this study pave the way for improved efforts in electricity modelling and planning and are an important step in tackling the Sustainable Development Goals.

Optimizing Off-Grid Generation in Large-Scale Electrification-Planning Problems: A Direct-Search Approach

Off-grid systems play a prominent role in rural electrification planning. The problem of optimizing the generation design of a single off-grid system has received a significant amount of attention in the literature, and several software tools and algorithms have addressed it. However, methods and tools designed for individual mini-grids are not directly applicable to regional planning, where it is necessary to estimate the generation cost of potentially thousands of mini-grids. Conversely, most regional planning tools estimate the generation cost of mini-grids with rules of thumb or analytical expressions. These estimations are useful, but they lack the accuracy necessary to develop a rural electrification plan. This paper presents a method to estimate the generation cost of any potential off-grid system in a large-scale rural electrification planning problem, which is currently implemented in the Reference Electrification Model (REM). The method uses a master-slave decomposition that exploits the structure of the problem and combines continuous and discrete variables. The algorithm is illustrated with a case study that shows that a direct application of a discrete model may lead to suboptimal results in large-scale planning.

Enhancement of a Short-Term Forecasting Method Based on Clustering and kNN: Application to an Industrial Facility Powered by a Cogenerator

In recent years, collecting data is becoming easier and cheaper thanks to many improvements in information technology (IT). The connection of sensors to the internet is becoming cheaper and easier (for example, the internet of things, IOT), the cost of data storage and data processing is decreasing, meanwhile artificial intelligence and machine learning methods are under development and/or being introduced to create values using data. In this paper, a clustering approach for the short-term forecasting of energy demand in industrial facilities is presented. A model based on clustering and k-nearest neighbors (kNN) is proposed to analyze and forecast data, and the novelties on model parameters definition to improve its accuracy are presented. The model is then applied to an industrial facility (wood industry) with contemporaneous demand of electricity and heat. An analysis of the parameters and the results of the model is performed, showing a forecast of electricity demand with an error of 3%.

Supply and Demand Assessment of Solar PV as Off-Grid Option in Asia Pacific Region with Remotely Sensed Data

The introduction of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in isolated areas which are far from the main grid has provided energy to non-electrified households. Such off-grid technology is very promising in the Asia Pacific region where increase in population and regional development has brought an increase in energy demand. This paper presents a methodology to assess the available supply of energy from solar PV systems and the corresponding demand from non-electrified areas. Non-electrified high population density areas were extracted using global population distribution and nightlight data, while the suitability of installing solar PV systems in those areas were identified based on slope, land cover and estimated solar PV power output. Moreover, the cost and benefits of installation were estimated based on the levelized cost of electricity generation from PV (LCOEPV) and the percentage in the total household budget that can shoulder the said expense. Lastly, this study also proposed a novel and simple method to extract the power transmission lines (TLs) based on global road network and nightlight data used for defining off-grid areas. Results show that there are three general types of electrification trend in the region with only 11 out 28 countries exhibiting the ideal trend of decreasing population living in unlit areas with increasing GDP. This study also generated maps showing the spatial distribution of high potential areas for solar PV installation in Cambodia, North Korea and Myanmar as case studies. To date, the high estimated household income allotted for PV electricity is still experienced in most countries in the region, but these countries also have high initial generated electricity from PV systems. Outputs from this study can provide stakeholders with relevant information on the suitable areas for installations in the region and the expected socio-economic benefits.

A high-resolution gridded dataset to assess electrification in sub-Saharan Africa

Spatially explicit data on electricity access and use are essential for effective policy-making and infrastructure planning in low-income, data-scarce regions. We present and validate a 1-km resolution electricity access dataset covering sub-Saharan Africa built on gridded nighttime light, population, and land cover data. Using light radiance probability distributions, we define electricity consumption tiers for urban and rural areas and estimate the by-tier split of consumers living in electrified areas. The approach provides new insight into the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of electricity access, and a measure of its quality beyond binary access. We find our estimates to be broadly consistent with recently published province- and national-level statistics. Moreover, we demonstrate consistency between the estimated electricity access quality indicators and survey-based consumption levels defined in accordance with the World Bank Multi-Tier Framework. The dataset is readily reproduced and updated using an open-access scientific computing framework. The data and approach can be applied for improving the assessment of least-cost electrification options, and examining links between electricity access and other sustainable development objectives.

Design Type(s)	modeling and simulation objective • observational design • data integration objective
Measurement Type(s)	Electricity
Technology Type(s)	digital curation
Factor Type(s)	temporal_interval • geographic location
Sample Characteristic(s)	Sub-Saharan Africa • anthropogenic habitat

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data (ISA-Tab format)