Machine Learning-Based Approach to Predict Energy Consumption of Renewable and Nonrenewable Power Sources

A survey on advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques assisting in renewable energy generation

The sustainability of the earth depends on renewable energy. Forecasting the output of renewable energy has a big impact on how we operate and manage our power networks. Accurate forecasting of renewable energy generation is crucial to ensuring grid dependability and permanence and reducing the risk and cost of the energy market and infrastructure. Although there are several approaches to forecasting solar radiation on a global scale, the two most common ones are machine learning algorithms and cloud pictures combined with physical models. The objective is to present a summary of machine learning-based techniques for solar irradiation forecasting in this context. Renewable energy is being used more and more in the world's energy grid. Numerous strategies, including hybrids, physical models, statistical approaches, and artificial intelligence techniques, have been developed to anticipate the use of renewable energy. This paper examines methods for forecasting renewable energy based on deep learning and machine learning. Review and analysis of deep learning and machine learning forecasts for renewable energy come first. The second paragraph describes metaheuristic optimization techniques for renewable energy. The third topic was the open issue of projecting renewable energy. I will wrap up with a few potential future job objectives.

A stacking ensemble classifier-based machine learning model for classifying pollution sources on photovoltaic panels

Solar energy is a very efficient alternative for generating clean electric energy. However, pollution on the surface of solar panels reduces solar radiation, increases surface transmittance, and raises the surface temperature. All these factors cause photovoltaic (PV) panels to be less efficient. To address this problem, a stacking ensemble classifier-based machine learning model is proposed. In this study, different sources of pollution on each solar panel are used, and their power generation is recorded. The proposed model includes gradient boost, extra tree, and random forest classifiers, with the extra tree classifier serving as a meta-learner. The model takes into account various weather features during the training process, including irradiance and temperature, aiming to increase its accuracy and robustness in identifying pollution sources on the PV panel. Moreover, the proposed model is evaluated using various methods in order to examine performance metrics such as accuracy, F1 score, and precision. Results show that the model can achieve an accuracy score of 97.37%. The model's performance is also compared to state-of-the-art machine learning models, demonstrating its superiority in accurately classifying pollution sources on PV panels. By utilizing different sources of pollution and weather features during training, the model can accurately classify different pollution sources, resulting in increased power generation efficiency and the longevity of PV panels. The main results of this study can be used to manage and maintain PV panels since the model can identify PV modules that need to be cleaned to keep producing the most power. Furthermore, the efficiency, reliability, and sustainability of PV panels can be further enhanced by the proposed model.

A novel fractional discrete grey model with variable weight buffer operator and its applications in renewable energy prediction

With the continuous depletion of global fossil energy, optimizing the energy structure has become the focus of attention of all countries. With the support of policy and finance, renewable energy occupies an important position in the energy structure of the USA. Being able to predict the trend of renewable energy consumption in advance plays a vital role in economic development and policymaking. Aiming at the small and changeable annual data of renewable energy consumption in the USA, a fractional delay discrete model of variable weight buffer operator based on grey wolf optimizer is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the variable weight buffer operator method is used to preprocess the data, and then, a new model is constructed by using the discrete modeling method and the concept of fractional delay term. The parameter estimation and time response formula of the new model are deduced, and it is proved that the new model combined with the variable weight buffer operator satisfies the new information priority principle of the final modeling data. The grey wolf optimizer is used to optimize the order of the new model and the weight of the variable weight buffer operator. Based on the renewable energy consumption data of solar energy, total biomass energy and wind energy in the field of renewable energy, the grey prediction model is established. The results show that the model has better prediction accuracy, adaptability and stability than the other five models mentioned in this paper. According to the forecast results, the consumption of solar and wind energy in the USA will increase incrementally in the coming years, while the consumption of biomass will decrease year by year.

A Review on Machine Learning Applications for Solar Plants

A solar plant system has complex nonlinear dynamics with uncertainties due to variations in system parameters and insolation. Thereby, it is difficult to approximate these complex dynamics with conventional algorithms whereas Machine Learning (ML) methods yield the essential performance required. ML models are key units in recent sensor systems for solar plant design, forecasting, maintenance, and control to provide the best safety, reliability, robustness, and performance as compared to classical methods which are usually employed in the hardware and software of solar plants. Considering this, the goal of our paper is to explore and analyze ML technologies and their advantages and shortcomings as compared to classical methods for the design, forecasting, maintenance, and control of solar plants. In contrast with other review articles, our research briefly summarizes our intelligent, self-adaptive models for sizing, forecasting, maintenance, and control of a solar plant; sets benchmarks for performance comparison of the reviewed ML models for a solar plant's system; proposes a simple but effective integration scheme of an ML sensor solar plant system's implementation and outlines its future digital transformation into a smart solar plant based on the integrated cutting-edge technologies; and estimates the impact of ML technologies based on the proposed scheme on a solar plant value chain.

Integrated Carbon-Capture-Based Low-Carbon Economic Dispatch of Power Systems Based on EEMD-LSTM-SVR Wind Power Forecasting

The optimal utilization of wind power and the application of carbon capture power plants are important measures to achieve a low-carbon power system, but the high-energy consumption of carbon capture power plants and the uncertainty of wind power lead to low-carbon coordination problems during load peaks. To address these problems, firstly, the EEMD-LSTM-SVR algorithm is proposed to forecast wind power in the Belgian grid in order to tackle the uncertainty and strong volatility of wind power. Furthermore, the conventional thermal power plant is transformed into an integrated carbon capture power plant containing split-flow and liquid storage type, and the low-carbon mechanism of the two approaches is adequately discussed to give the low-carbon realization mechanism of the power system. Secondly, the mathematical model of EEMD-LSTM-SVR algorithm and the integrated low-carbon economic dispatch model are constructed. Finally, the simulation is verified in a modified IEEE-39 node system with carbon capture power plant. Compared with conventional thermal power plants, the carbon emissions of integrated carbon capture plants will be reduced by 78.248%; the abandoned wind of split carbon capture plants is reduced by 53.525%; the total cost of wind power for dispatch predicted using the EEMD-LSTM-SVR algorithm will be closer to the actual situation, with a difference of only USD 60. The results demonstrate that the dispatching strategy proposed in this paper can effectively improve the accuracy of wind power prediction and combine with the integrated carbon capture power plant to improve the system wind power absorption capacity and operational efficiency while achieving the goal of low carbon emission.

Short-Term Energy Forecasting Using Machine-Learning-Based Ensemble Voting Regression

Meeting the required amount of energy between supply and demand is indispensable for energy manufacturers. Accordingly, electric industries have paid attention to short-term energy forecasting to assist their management system. This paper firstly compares multiple machine learning (ML) regressors during the training process. Five best ML algorithms, such as extra trees regressor (ETR), random forest regressor (RFR), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), gradient boosting regressor (GBR), and K neighbors regressor (KNN) are trained to build our proposed voting regressor (VR) model. Final predictions are performed using the proposed ensemble VR and compared with five selected ML benchmark models. Statistical autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) is also compared with the proposed model to reveal results. For the experiments, usage energy and weather data are gathered from four regions of Jeju Island. Error measurements, including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE) are computed to evaluate the forecasting performance. Our proposed model outperforms six baseline models in terms of the result comparison, giving a minimum MAPE of 0.845% on the whole test set. This improved performance shows that our approach is promising for symmetrical forecasting using time series energy data in the power system sector.

Influencing Factors Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction

Modern computing resources, including machine learning-based techniques, are used to maintain stability between the demand and supply of electricity. Machine learning is widely used for the prediction of energy consumption. The researchers present several artificial intelligence and machine learning-based methods to improve the prediction accuracy of energy consumption. However, the discrepancy between actual energy consumption and predicted energy consumption is still challenging. Various factors, including changes in weather, holidays, and weekends, affect prediction accuracy. This article analyses the overall prediction using error curve learning and a hybrid model. Actual energy consumption data of Jeju island, South Korea, has been used for experimental purposes. We have used a hybrid ML model consisting of Catboost, Xgboost, and Multi-layer perceptron for the prediction. Then we analyze the factors that affect the week-ahead (WA) and 48 h prediction results. Mean error on weekdays is recorded as 2.78%, for weekends 2.79%, and for special days it is recorded as 4.28%. We took into consideration significant predicting errors and looked into the reasons behind those errors. Furthermore, we analyzed whether factors, such as a sudden change in temperature and typhoons, had an effect on energy consumption. Finally, the authors have considered the other factors, such as public holidays and weekends, to analyze the significant errors in the prediction. This study can be helpful for policymakers to make policies according to the error-causing factors.

A Novel Data-Driven Method to Estimate Methane Adsorption Isotherm on Coals Using the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree: A Case Study in the Qinshui Basin, China

The accurate determination of methane adsorption isotherms in coals is crucial for both the evaluation of underground coalbed methane (CBM) reserves and design of development strategies for enhancing CBM recovery. However, the experimental measurement of high-pressure methane adsorption isotherms is extremely tedious and time-consuming. This paper proposed the use of an ensemble machine learning (ML) method, namely the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), in order to accurately estimate methane adsorption isotherms based on coal properties in the Qinshui basin, China. The GBDT method was trained to correlate the adsorption amount with coal properties (ash, fixed carbon, moisture, vitrinite, and vitrinite reflectance) and experimental conditions (pressure, equilibrium moisture, and temperature). The results show that the estimated adsorption amounts agree well with the experimental ones, which prove the accuracy and robustness of the GBDT method. A comparison of the GBDT with two commonly used ML methods, namely the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), confirms the superiority of GBDT in terms of generalization capability and robustness. Furthermore, relative importance scanning and univariate analysis based on the constructed GBDT model were conducted, which showed that the fixed carbon and ash contents are primary factors that significantly affect the adsorption isotherms for the coal samples in this study.

Energy Modeling of a Refiner in Thermo-Mechanical Pulping Process Using ANFIS Method

In the pulping industry, thermo-mechanical pulping (TMP) as a subdivision of the refiner-based mechanical pulping is one of the most energy-intensive processes where the core of the process is attributed to the refining process. In this study, to simulate the refining unit of the TMP process under different operational states, the idea of machine learning algorithms is employed. Complicated processes and prediction problems could be simulated and solved by utilizing artificial intelligence methods inspired by the pattern of brain learning. In this research, six evolutionary optimization algorithms are employed to be joined with the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to increase the refining simulation accuracy. The applied optimization algorithms are particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), differential evolution (DE), biogeography-based optimization algorithm (BBO), genetic algorithm (GA), ant colony (ACO), and teaching learning-based optimization algorithm (TLBO). The simulation predictor variables are site ambient temperature, refining dilution water, refining plate gap, and chip transfer screw speed, while the model outputs are refining motor load and generated steam. Findings confirm the superiority of the PSO algorithm concerning model performance comparing to the other evolutionary algorithms for optimizing ANFIS method parameters, which are utilized for simulating a refiner unit in the TMP process.