Factors Shaping A/W Heat Pumps CO₂ Emissions—Evidence from Poland

Energy Consumption Forecasting for the Digital-Twin Model of the Building

The aim of the paper is to propose a new approach to forecast the energy consumption for the next day using the unique data obtained from a digital twin model of a building. In the research, we tested which of the chosen forecasting methods and which set of input data gave the best results. We tested naive methods, linear regression, LSTM and the Prophet method. We found that the Prophet model using information about the total energy consumption and real data about the energy consumption of the top 10 energy-consuming devices gave the best forecast of energy consumption for the following day. In this paper, we also presented a methodology of using decision trees and a unique set of conditional attributes to understand the errors made by the forecast model. This methodology was also proposed to reduce the number of monitored devices. The research that is described in this article was carried out in the context of a project that deals with the development of a digital twin model of a building.

An Environmental Assessment of Heat Pumps in Poland

Greenhouse gas emissions are regarded as the cause of the rise in mean Earth temperature, the further increase of which may cause dramatic irreversible global changes. Their levels in Poland are some of the highest in the world. In this study, to evaluate the “Energy policy of Poland until 2040”, greenhouse gas and particulate matter emissions were compared in all Polish climatic zones using a typical meteorological year. A comparison was made between air-to-water, brine-to-water, and water-to-water devices. The electrical energy consumption and coefficient of performance were determined hourly in the heating season. The determining algorithm took a buffer tank or separating heat exchanger into consideration, when they were required, and electricity transmission efficiency. Subsequently the emissions were estimated for the present Polish energy mix and a mix proposed in the “Energy policy of Poland until 2040”. After implementing this policy all heat pumps will be energetically viable devices. However, only in one location will water-to-water heat pumps cause less emissions than a condensing gas boiler. In other cases, condensing gas boilers will be significantly less emissive devices. Therefore, this policy is insufficient for reducing emissions. Hence, it is necessary to replace almost all coal-fired power plants with natural gas-fired gas turbines in a transitional period.

The heat pumps for better urban air quality✰

Strict restrictions to halt the spread of COVID-19 provided an opportunity to quantify the contribution of different pollution agents. We analyze the concentrations of pollutants recorded in Rome during the lockdown periods for the containment of the spread of Covid 19, compared with those of other periods and years. We recorded a significant contribution attributable to heating systems powered by fuel. Thus, we propose the replacement of existing boilers for heating and drinking hot water (DHW) production systems, with air / water heat pumps, as an intervention to improve urban air quality. We analyze the replacement scenarios, within the entire residential building stock in the Municipality of Rome, in terms of emissions reduction, primary energy savings and reduced CO2 production. Results show significant reductions in concentrations. Reduction in primary energy consumption varies between 12% and 56% for various scenarios, different for outdoor temperatures and mix of electricity generation. The intervention on the urban scale can reduce air pollution on a long-term basis, implying significant reductions of polluting emissions in urban areas, and entailed reduced energy (and therefore environmental) costs, with a significant step towards sustainable cities.