Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as a Reaction to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Energy markets restructure beyond 2022 and its implications on Qatar LNG sales strategy: Business forecasting and trend analysis

The emergence of new suppliers and energy resources has reshaped the energy market in terms of contractual structures and pricing systems. The market shifts were accelerated in response to the latest Russian-Ukraine crisis, impacting natural gas supply chains from financing projects to contracting volumes. The increased demand for liquified natural gas volumes intensified the need to switch from long-term oil-indexed contracts to short-term gas-indexed contracts. Those shifts were anticipated to influence the selling strategies for the expected added 49 MTPA of Qatari LNG, wherein increasing the share of spot selling would be reflected in higher economic performance. This study used forecasted prices to investigate potential Qatari LNG selling strategies. Initially, projections of the most dominant pricing systems used for pricing Qatari LNG (i.e., brent, Henry Hub, Title Transfer Facility, and Japan Korea Marker) were estimated between 2023 and 2040. While Qatar has been relying on long-term oil-indexed contracts, the second step estimated annual LNG revenues under different combinations of selling strategies (i.e., long-term and spot sales). Finally, the influence of varying brent slopes on the estimated revenues was measured. Due to data limitations and non-stationarity, the double exponential smoothing model was selected among the different tested models. Considering current market dynamics, forecasts of the double exponential smoothing model showed an upward price trend until 2040. An annual average increase of 1.24% for the studied pricing systems was reported. Reducing the share of long-term brent-indexed contracts to 70% and dedicating the remaining 30% of volumes to spot sales yielded the highest premiums for revenue estimates. An average annual revenue of $62 bn was reported for the 70/30 strategy, around 6% higher than the 100% brent-indexed contracts strategy. The findings revealed that diversifying the selling approach and introducing spot sales can enhance revenues. From the buyers' perspective, the outcomes support policymakers in understanding the implications of escalated prices driven by a lack of liquidity investments.

Energy Decision Making: Problems, Methods, and Tools—An Overview

Making decisions concerning the use of energy sources is a very difficult and complicated task [...]

Assessment of the Similarity of the Situation in the EU Labour Markets and Their Changes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The aim of the study is to assess the similarity of the situation in the EU labour markets and their evolution using selected indicators in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The benchmark are the countries that most closely meet the Sustainable Development Goals related to the labour market. We use quarterly data from Eurostat presenting the basic indicators of the labour market: unemployment, employment, and activity rates. We analyse all indicators for the total population, young people, and people aged 55+. We assess the similarity of the situation using the TOPSIS method and similarity of changes by means of the Dynamic Time Warping. We obtain homogeneous groups of countries due to similarity of time series using hierarchical clustering. We conduct the analysis in two periods: the years 2018 and 2019 (pre-pandemic period) and from the beginning of 2020 to the present (pandemic period). The composition of the clusters in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods is different. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the situation in the labour market can be noted. This is a result of different degree of development of labour markets, which had an impact on coping with the effects of the crisis caused by the pandemic.

Duration of Trade Relationships of Polish Enterprises on the Intra-Community Market: The Case of Vehicles and Automotive Parts Trade

International trade allows for wider access to goods and services in domestic markets. It contributes to socio-economic development, and it is an important factor in raising living standards. The aim of the study is to provide a duration analysis of trade relationships of Polish enterprises on the intra-community market and determine the influence of selected factors on the length of time the relationships last. We employ survival analysis methods to study the duration of Polish enterprises on the intra-community market (the case of 87 CN chapter—vehicles and parts and accessories thereof), separately for intra-community supplies (ICS) and intra-community acquisitions (ICA). Our research covers trade relationships at a level close to individual transactions—the data unit relates to a specific domestic company, a specific product group (combined nomenclature heading), a specific direction of the transaction (ICS/ICA) and exchange with a specific country. Differences in duration curves for ICS and ICA are statistically significant, and export (ICS) relationships are more durable over time than import relationships (ICA). The most durable relationships of Polish enterprises are with business partners from countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Spain, Portugal and the Czech Republic.