Wind Speed and Solar Irradiance Prediction Using a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model Based on Neural Networks

Time Series Electrical Motor Drives Forecasting Based on Simulation Modeling and Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory

Accurately forecasting electrical signals from three-phase Direct Torque Control (DTC) induction motors is crucial for achieving optimal motor performance and effective condition monitoring. However, the intricate nature of multiple DTC induction motors and the variability in operational conditions present significant challenges for conventional prediction methodologies. To address these obstacles, we propose an innovative solution that leverages the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to preprocess simulation data from electrical motors. A Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network then uses this altered data to forecast processed motor signals. Our proposed approach is thoroughly examined using a comparative examination of cutting-edge forecasting models such as the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). This rigorous comparison underscores the remarkable efficacy of our approach in elevating the precision and reliability of forecasts for induction motor signals. The results unequivocally establish the superiority of our method across stator and rotor current testing data, as evidenced by Mean Absolute Error (MAE) average results of 92.6864 and 93.8802 for stator and rotor current data, respectively. Additionally, compared to alternative forecasting models, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) average results of 105.0636 and 85.7820 underscore reduced prediction loss.

Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique

Variability in solar irradiance has an impact on the stability of solar systems and the grid’s safety. With the decreasing cost of solar panels and recent advancements in energy conversion technology, precise solar energy forecasting is critical for energy system integration. Despite extensive research, there is still potential for advancement of solar irradiance prediction accuracy, especially global horizontal irradiance. Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) (unit: KWh/m2) and the Plane Of Array (POA) irradiance (unit: W/m2) were used as the forecasting objectives in this research, and a hybrid short-term solar irradiance prediction model called modified multi-step Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-stacked Long-Short-Term-Memory network (LSTM) with drop-out was proposed. The real solar data from Sweihan Photovoltaic Independent Power Project in Abu Dhabi, UAE is preprocessed, and features were extracted using modified CNN layers. The output result from CNN is used to predict the targets using a stacked LSTM network and the efficiency is proved by comparing statistical performance measures in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Squared Error (MAE), and R2 scores, with other contemporary machine learning and deep-learning-based models. The proposed model offered the best RMSE and R2 values of 0.36 and 0.98 for solar irradiance prediction and 61.24 with R2 0.96 for POA prediction, which also showed better performance as compared to the published works in the literature.

Integrated Carbon-Capture-Based Low-Carbon Economic Dispatch of Power Systems Based on EEMD-LSTM-SVR Wind Power Forecasting

The optimal utilization of wind power and the application of carbon capture power plants are important measures to achieve a low-carbon power system, but the high-energy consumption of carbon capture power plants and the uncertainty of wind power lead to low-carbon coordination problems during load peaks. To address these problems, firstly, the EEMD-LSTM-SVR algorithm is proposed to forecast wind power in the Belgian grid in order to tackle the uncertainty and strong volatility of wind power. Furthermore, the conventional thermal power plant is transformed into an integrated carbon capture power plant containing split-flow and liquid storage type, and the low-carbon mechanism of the two approaches is adequately discussed to give the low-carbon realization mechanism of the power system. Secondly, the mathematical model of EEMD-LSTM-SVR algorithm and the integrated low-carbon economic dispatch model are constructed. Finally, the simulation is verified in a modified IEEE-39 node system with carbon capture power plant. Compared with conventional thermal power plants, the carbon emissions of integrated carbon capture plants will be reduced by 78.248%; the abandoned wind of split carbon capture plants is reduced by 53.525%; the total cost of wind power for dispatch predicted using the EEMD-LSTM-SVR algorithm will be closer to the actual situation, with a difference of only USD 60. The results demonstrate that the dispatching strategy proposed in this paper can effectively improve the accuracy of wind power prediction and combine with the integrated carbon capture power plant to improve the system wind power absorption capacity and operational efficiency while achieving the goal of low carbon emission.

Wind Speed Forecasts of a Mesoscale Ensemble for Large-Scale Wind Farms in Northern China: Downscaling Effect of Global Model Forecasts

To facilitate wind power integration for the electric power grid operated by the Inner Mongolia Electric Power Corporation—a major electric power grid in China—a high-resolution (of 2.7 km grid intervals) mesoscale ensemble prediction system was developed that forecasts winds for 130 wind farms in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The ensemble system contains 39 forecasting members that are divided into 3 groups; each group is composed of the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) real-time four-dimensional data assimilation and forecasting model (RTFDDA) with 13 physical perturbation members, but driven by the forecasts of the GFS (Global Forecast System), GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model), and GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System), respectively. The hub-height wind predictions of these three sub-ensemble groups at selected wind turbines across the region were verified against the hub-height wind measurements. The forecast performance and variations with lead time, wind regimes, and diurnal and regional changes were analyzed. The results show that the GFS group outperformed the other two groups with respect to correlation coefficient and mean absolute error. The GFS group had the most accurate forecasts in ~59% of sites, while the GEOS and GEM groups only performed the best on 34% and 2% of occasions, respectively. The wind forecasts were most accurate for wind speeds ranging from 3 to 12 m/s, but with an overestimation for low speeds and an underestimation for high speeds. The GEOS-driven members obtained the least bias error among the three groups. All members performed rather accurately in daytime, but evidently overestimated the winds during nighttime. The GFS group possessed the fewest diurnal errors, and the bias of the GEM group grew significantly during nighttime. The wind speed forecast errors of all three ensemble members increased with the forecast lead time, with the average absolute error increasing by ~0.3 m/s per day during the first 72 h of forecasts.