A Multi-Step Time-Series Clustering-Based Seq2Seq LSTM Learning for a Single Household Electricity Load Forecasting

Ultra short term power load forecasting based on the fusion of Seq2Seq BiLSTM and multi head attention mechanism

Ultra-short-term power load forecasting is beneficial to improve the economic efficiency of power systems and ensure the safe and stable operation of power grids. As the volatility and randomness of loads in power systems, make it difficult to achieve accurate and reliable power load forecasting, a sequence-to-sequence based learning framework is proposed to learn feature information in different dimensions synchronously. Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN) Combined with Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) Networks is constructed in the encoder to extract the correlated timing features embedded in external factors affecting power loads. The parallel BiLSTM network is constructed in the decoder to mine the power load timing information in different regions separately. The multi-headed attention mechanism is introduced to fuse the BiLSTM hidden layer state information in different components to further highlight the key information representation. The load forecastion results in different regions are output through the fully connected layer. The model proposed in this paper has the advantage of high forecastion accuracy through the example analysis of real power load data.

Optimized EWT-Seq2Seq-LSTM with Attention Mechanism to Insulators Fault Prediction

Insulators installed outdoors are vulnerable to the accumulation of contaminants on their surface, which raise their conductivity and increase leakage current until a flashover occurs. To improve the reliability of the electrical power system, it is possible to evaluate the development of the fault in relation to the increase in leakage current and thus predict whether a shutdown may occur. This paper proposes the use of empirical wavelet transform (EWT) to reduce the influence of non-representative variations and combines the attention mechanism with a long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent network for prediction. The Optuna framework has been applied for hyperparameter optimization, resulting in a method called optimized EWT-Seq2Seq-LSTM with attention. The proposed model had a 10.17% lower mean square error (MSE) than the standard LSTM and a 5.36% lower MSE than the model without optimization, showing that the attention mechanism and hyperparameter optimization is a promising strategy.