Forecasting Daily Electricity Consumption in Thailand Using Regression, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Hybrid Models

Household electricity consumption prediction using database combinations, ensemble and hybrid modeling techniques

Household electricity consumption (HEC) is changing over time, depends on multiple factors, and leads to effects on the prediction accuracy of the model. The objective of this work is to propose a novel methodology for improving HEC prediction accuracy. This study uses two original datasets, namely questionnaire survey (QS) and monthly consumption (MC), which contain data from 225 consumers from Maharashtra, India. The original datasets are combined to create three additional datasets, namely QS + MC, QS equation (QsEq) + next month's consumptions, and QsEq + MC. Furthermore, the HEC prediction accuracy is boosted by applying different approaches, like correlation methods, feature engineering techniques, data quality assessment, heterogeneous ensemble prediction (HEP), and the hybrid model. Five HEP models are created using dataset combinations and machine learning algorithms. Based on the MC dataset, the random forest provides the best prediction of RMSE (36.18 kWh), MAE (25.73 kWh), and R2 (0.76). Similarly, QsEq + MC dataset adaptive boosting provides a better prediction of RMSE (36.77 kWh), MAE (26.18 kWh), and R2 (0.76). This prediction accuracy is further increased using the proposed hybrid model to RMSE (22.02 kWh), MAE (13.04 kWh), and R2 (0.92). This research work benefits researchers, policymakers, and utility companies in obtaining accurate prediction models and understanding HEC.

Application of random forest based on semi-automatic parameter adjustment for optimization of anti-breast cancer drugs

The optimization of drug properties in the process of cancer drug development is very important to save research and development time and cost. In order to make the anti-breast cancer drug candidates with good biological activity, this paper collected 1974 compounds, firstly, the top 20 molecular descriptors that have the most influence on biological activity were screened by using XGBoost-based data feature selection; secondly, on this basis, take pIC50 values as feature data and use a variety of machine learning algorithms to compare, soas to select a most suitable algorithm to predict the IC50 and pIC50 values. It is preliminarily found that the effects of Random Forest, XGBoost and Gradient-enhanced algorithms are good and have little difference, and the Support vector machine is the worst. Then, using the Semi-automatic parameter adjustment method to adjust the parameters of Random Forest, XGBoost and Gradient-enhanced algorithms to find the optimal parameters. It is found that the Random Forest algorithm has high accuracy and excellent anti over fitting, and the algorithm is stable. Its prediction accuracy is 0.745. Finally, the accuracy of the results is verified by training the model with the preliminarily selected data, which provides an innovative solution for the optimization of the properties of anti- breast cancer drugs, and can provide better support for the early research and development of anti-breast cancer drugs.