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Sahin H, Solomon AA, Aghahosseini A, Breyer C. Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems. Nat Commun 2024; 15:208. [PMID: 38172508 PMCID: PMC10764355 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44232-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024] Open
Abstract
The Glasgow Climate Pact articulated the vital importance of renewables in reducing emissions on the way to net-zero pledges. During the power sector transition, foreseeing conditions affecting the plausibility of pathway options is crucial for specifying an optimal system development strategy. This study examines the net energy performance of nine decarbonisation global energy transition scenarios until 2050 by applying a newly developed systemwide energy return on investment (EROI) model. All scenarios result in an EROI value above the upper limit of the net energy cliff, expected to be around 10. EROI trends heavily depend on transition paths. Once achieving higher renewable energy shares begin requiring significant enabling technologies, EROI continually declines as the shares increase. Shortening the transition period leads to a sharper declining of EROI, which stabilises after achieving 100% renewables. The vulnerability arising from natural gas and oil depletions may have worst impact on EROI of fossil fuels dominated systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hasret Sahin
- School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland.
| | - A A Solomon
- School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland.
| | - Arman Aghahosseini
- School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland
| | - Christian Breyer
- School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland
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Energy Return on Investment of Major Energy Carriers: Review and Harmonization. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14127098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Net energy, that is, the energy remaining after accounting for the energy “cost” of extraction and processing, is the “profit” energy used to support modern society. Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is a popular metric to assess the profitability of energy extraction processes, with EROI > 1 indicating that more energy is delivered to society than is used in the extraction process. Over the past decade, EROI analysis in particular has grown in popularity, resulting in an increase in publications in recent years. The lack of methodological consistency, however, among these papers has led to a situation where inappropriate comparisons are being made across technologies. In this paper we provide both a literature review and harmonization of EROI values to provide accurate comparisons of EROIs across both thermal fuels and electricity producing technologies. Most importantly, the authors advocate for the use of point-of-use EROIs rather than point-of-extraction EROIs as the energy “cost” of the processes to get most thermal fuels from extraction to point of use drastically lowers their EROI. The main results indicate that PV, wind and hydropower have EROIs at or above ten while the EROIs for thermal fuels vary significantly, with that for petroleum oil notably below ten.
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Life-Cycle Carbon Emissions and Energy Implications of High Penetration of Photovoltaics and Electric Vehicles in California. ENERGIES 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/en14165165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
California has set two ambitious targets aimed at achieving a high level of decarbonization in the coming decades, namely (i) to generate 60% and 100% of its electricity using renewable energy (RE) technologies, respectively, by 2030 and by 2045, and (ii) introducing at least 5 million zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030, as a first step towards all new vehicles being ZEVs by 2035. In addition, in California, photovoltaics (PVs) coupled with lithium-ion battery (LIB) storage and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are, respectively, the most promising candidates for new RE installations and new ZEVs, respectively. However, concerns have been voiced about how meeting both targets at the same time could potentially negatively affect the electricity grid’s stability, and hence also its overall energy and carbon performance. This paper addresses those concerns by presenting a thorough life-cycle carbon emission and energy analysis based on an original grid balancing model that uses a combination of historical hourly dispatch and demand data and future projections of hourly demand for BEV charging. Five different scenarios are assessed, and the results unequivocally indicate that a future 80% RE grid mix in California is not only able to cope with the increased demand caused by BEVs, but it can do so with low carbon emissions (<110 g CO2-eq/kWh) and satisfactory net energy returns (EROIPE-eq = 12–16).
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Ecological Scarcity Based Impact Assessment for a Decentralised Renewable Energy System. ENERGIES 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/en13215655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Increasing the share of renewable energies in electricity and heat generation is the cornerstone of a climate-friendly energy transition. However, as renewable technologies rely on diverse natural resources, the design of decarbonized energy systems inevitably leads to environmental trade-offs. This paper presents the case study of a comprehensive impact assessment for different future development scenarios of a decentralized renewable energy system in Germany. It applies an adapted ecological scarcity method (ESM) that improves decision-support by ranking the investigated scenarios and revealing their main environmental shortcomings: increased mineral resource use and pollutant emissions due to required technical infrastructure and a substantial increase in land use due to biomass combustion. Concerning the case study, the paper suggests extending the set of considered options, e.g., towards including imported wind energy. More generally, the findings underline the need for a comprehensive environmental assessment of renewable energy systems that integrate electricity supply with heating, cooling, and mobility. On a methodical level, the ESM turns out to be a transparent and well adaptable method to analyze environmental trade-offs from renewable energy supply. It currently suffers from missing quantitative targets that are democratically sufficiently legitimized. At the same time, it can provide a sound basis for an informed discussion on such targets.
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Life-Cycle Carbon Emissions and Energy Return on Investment for 80% Domestic Renewable Electricity with Battery Storage in California (U.S.A.). ENERGIES 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/en13153934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This paper presents a detailed life-cycle assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative demand for total and non-renewable primary energy, and energy return on investment (EROI) for the domestic electricity grid mix in the U.S. state of California, using hourly historical data for 2018, and future projections of increased solar photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity with lithium-ion battery energy storage, so as to achieve 80% net renewable electricity generation in 2030, while ensuring the hourly matching of the supply and demand profiles at all times. Specifically—in line with California’s plans that aim to increase the renewable energy share into the electric grid—in this study, PV installed capacity is assumed to reach 43.7 GW in 2030, resulting of 52% of the 2030 domestic electricity generation. In the modelled 2030 scenario, single-cycle gas turbines and nuclear plants are completely phased out, while combined-cycle gas turbine output is reduced by 30% compared to 2018. Results indicate that 25% of renewable electricity ends up being routed into storage, while 2.8% is curtailed. Results also show that such energy transition strategy would be effective at curbing California’s domestic electricity grid mix carbon emissions by 50%, and reducing demand for non-renewable primary energy by 66%, while also achieving a 10% increase in overall EROI (in terms of electricity output per unit of investment).
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Standard, Point of Use, and Extended Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) from Comprehensive Material Requirements of Present Global Wind, Solar, and Hydro Power Technologies. ENERGIES 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/en13123036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Whether renewable energy sources (RES) will provide sufficient energy surplus to entirely power complex modern societies is under discussion. We contribute to this debate by estimating the current global average energy return on energy invested (EROI) for the five RES technologies with the highest potential of electricity generation from the comprehensive and internally consistent estimations of their material requirements at three distinct energy system boundaries: standard farm-gate (EROIst), final at consumer point-of-use (EROIfinal), and extended (including indirect investments, EROIext). EROIst levels found fall within the respective literature ranges. Expanding the boundaries closer to the system level, we find that only large hydroelectricity would currently have a high EROIext ~ 6.5:1, while the rest of variable RES would be below 3:1: onshore wind (2.9:1), offshore wind (2.3:1), solar Photovoltaic (PV) (1.8:1), and solar Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) (<1:1). These results indicate that, very likely, the global average EROIext levels of variable RES are currently below those of fossil fuel-fired electricity. It remains unknown if technological improvements will be able to compensate for factors, which will become increasingly important as the variable RES scale-up. Hence, without dynamically accounting for the evolution of the EROI of the system, the viability of sustainable energy systems cannot be ensured, especially for modern societies pursuing continuous economic growth.
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A Prospective Net Energy and Environmental Life-Cycle Assessment of the UK Electricity Grid. ENERGIES 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/en13092207] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
National Grid, the UK’s largest utility company, has produced a number of energy transition scenarios, among which “2 degrees” is the most aggressive in terms of decarbonization. This paper presents the results of a combined prospective net energy and environmental life cycle assessment of the UK electricity grid, based on such a scenario. The main findings are that the strategy is effective at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions (albeit to a reduced degree with respect to the projected share of “zero carbon” generation taken at face value), but it entails a trade-off in terms of depletion of metal resources. The grid’s potential toxicity impacts are also expected to remain substantially undiminished with respect to the present. Overall, the analysis indicates that the “2 degrees” scenario is environmentally sound and that it even leads to a modest increase in the net energy delivered to society by the grid (after accounting for the energy investments required to deploy all technologies).
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Trends in Scientific Literature on Energy Return Ratio of Renewable Energy Sources for Supporting Policymakers. ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/admsci10020021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The scarcity of fossil fuels and their environmental impact as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, have prompted governments around the world to both develop research and foster the use of renewable energy sources (RES), such as biomass, wind, and solar. Therefore, although these efforts represent potential solutions for fossil fuel shortages and GHG emission reduction, some doubts have emerged recently regarding their energy efficiency. Indeed, it is very useful to assess their energy gain, which means quantifying and comparing the amount of energy consumed to produce alternative fuels. In this context, the aim of this paper is to analyze the trend of the academic literature of studies concerning the indices of the energy return ratio (ERR), such as energy return on energy invested (EROEI), considering biomass, wind and solar energy. This could be useful for institutions and to public organizations in order to redefine their political vision for realizing sustainable socio-economic systems in line with the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies. Results showed that biomass seems to be more expensive and less efficient than the equivalent fossil-based energy, whereas solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy have reached mature and advanced levels of technology.
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Life Cycle Assessment of Plywood Manufacturing Process in China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16112037. [PMID: 31181714 PMCID: PMC6603926 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16112037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2019] [Revised: 06/02/2019] [Accepted: 06/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been an important issue in the development of a circular economy. LCA is used to identify environmental impacts and hotspots associated with plywood manufacturing. Based on our results and a literature review of LCA studies involving plywood, a sustainable and environmentally friendly scenario was proposed for the plywood processing industry to improve environmental performance and sustainability. This study covers the life cycle of plywood production from a cradle-to-gate perspective, including raw material preparation and plywood manufacturing and processing to analysis of environment impacts and hotspots. Analysis of abiotic depletion (ADP), acidification effect (AP), primary energy depletion (PED), freshwater eutrophication (EP), global warming potential (GWP), and particulate matter (RI) were selected as major impact categories in this study. All data were obtained from on-site measurements (plywood production) and investigations of the Eco-invent database and CLCD database (upstream data of materials and energy). These data can be ignored when environmental contributions comprise less than 0.001% of environmental impact and auxiliary material quality is less than 0.01% of total raw material consumption. An eco-design strategy with eco-alternatives was proposed: pyrolysis bio-oil can be used to produce green resin to replace traditional phenolic formaldehyde (PF) resin to decrease the impacts of GWP, PED, AP, PM, and especially ADP and EP. A new technology of gluing green wood was used to replace conventional plywood production technology; wood waste could undergo a gasification process to produce resultant gas rather than combusting. Plywood was also compared with other wood-based panels in China to identify additional scenarios to improve environmental sustainability.
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Creating an Energy Analysis Concept for Oil and Gas Companies: The Case of the Yakutiya Company in Russia. ENERGIES 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/en12020268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Recently, energy analysis has been added to Russian gas companies’ annual reporting system. This new practice indicates that corporate reports are improving their analyses by addressing energy issue and the financial efficiency of energy production. However, the use of summary energy indicators is limited in these annual reports. In this paper we review the history of energy analysis in Russia from the early USSR period to today. Under the guidance of energy return on investment (EROI), we compare energy efficiency indicators with financial efficiency coefficients. The results show that the value of the return on cost of sales (ROCS) is negative in certain instances, while the value of the energy return on cost of sales (EROCS) is extremely high under the example of the Russian energy company JSC “YATEC.” Money-based indicator values (ROCS and return on fix assets (ROFA)) fluctuate with internal company financial management goals, and from the outside depending on market prices. Meanwhile energy-based values (EROCS) remain stable. Added financial analysis and energy analysis in companies’ annual statements will supplement each other in practice and will present the full picture for company efficiency analysis.
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Assessing Energy and Environmental Efficiency of the Spanish Agri-Food System Using the LCA/DEA Methodology. ENERGIES 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/en11123395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023]
Abstract
Feeding the world’s population sustainably is a major challenge of our society, and was stated as one of the key priorities for development cooperation by the European Union (EU) policy framework on food security. However, with the current trend of natural resource exploitation, food systems consume around 30% of final energy use, generating up to 30% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Given the expected increase of global population (nine billion people by 2050) and the amount of food losses and waste generated (one-third of global food production), improving the efficiency of food systems along the supply chain is essential to ensure food security. This study combines life-cycle assessment (LCA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess the efficiency of Spanish agri-food system and to propose improvement actions in order to reduce energy usage and GHG emissions. An average energy saving of approximately 70% is estimated for the Spanish agri-food system in order to be efficient. This study highlights the importance of the DEA method as a tool for energy optimization, identifying efficient and inefficient food systems. This approach could be adopted by administrations, policy-makers, and producers as a helpful instrument to support decision-making and improve the sustainability of agri-food systems.
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Life Cycle Performance of Hydrogen Production via Agro-Industrial Residue Gasification—A Small Scale Power Plant Study. ENERGIES 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/en11030675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Thermodynamic and Environmental Analysis of Scaling up Cogeneration Units Driven by Sugarcane Biomass to Enhance Power Exports. ENERGIES 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/en11010073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
When manual harvesting of sugarcane was discontinued in many regions of Brazil, interest in power generation by burning the bagasse and straw in cogeneration units rose. Exergy analysis is often applied to increase the thermodynamic yield of these plants by identifying irreversibility and work availability. Conversely, pressure for adopting clean energy requires these systems to be evaluated for suitable environmental performance. This study identified and discussed the thermodynamic and environmental effects of scaling up systems that operate according Rankine cycle with reheating. Ten scenarios have been designed considering different levels of steam pressure and addition rates of straw remaining in the sugarcane cultivation. The thermodynamic analysis revealed a 37% improvement in the exergy efficiency and 63% of increasing in power generation to raise the steam pressure from 20 to 100 bar. Moreover, the use of 50% of residual straw into units operating at 100 bar can more than double the amount of electricity exported. If addressed considering a life cycle perspective, the use of straw improves the environmental performance of the cogeneration for Climate Change and Particle Matter Formation but provides additional impacts in terms of Water and Fossil resources depletions.
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