Impacts of Change in Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on Larix gmelinii Forest Growth in Northeast China from 1950 to 2010

Simulated net ecosystem productivity of subtropical forests and its response to climate change in Zhejiang Province, China

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is an important index that indicates the carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. However, the effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal variability in NEP is still unclear. Using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon-budget (InTEC) model, this study takes the typical subtropical forests in the Zhejiang Province, China as an example, simulated the spatiotemporal patterns of forest NEP from 1979 to 2079 based on historically observed climate data (1979-2015) and data from three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We analyzed the responses of NEP at different forest age classes to the variation in meteorological factors. The NEP of Zhejiang's forests decreased from 1979 to 1985 and then increased from 1985 to 2015, with an annual increase rate of 9.66 g C·m^-2·yr^-1 and a cumulative NEP of 364.99 Tg·C. Forest NEP decreased from 2016 to 2079; however, the cumulative NEP continued to increase. The simulated cumulative NEP under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios was 750 Tg·C, 866 Tg·C, and 958 Tg·C, respectively, at the end of 2079. Partial correlation analysis between forest NEP at different age stages and meteorological factors showed that temperature is the key climatic factor that affects the carbon sequestration capacity of juvenile forests (1979-1999), while precipitation is the key climatic factor that affects middle-aged forests (2000-2015) and mature forests (2016-2079). Adopting appropriate management strategies for forests, such as selective cutting of different ages, is critical for the subtropical forests to adapt to climate change and maintain their high carbon sink capacity.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Carbon Fluxes from Bamboo Forests and their Response to Climate Change Based on a BEPS Model in China

Carbon flux is the main basis for judging the carbon source/sink of forest ecosystems. Bamboo forests have gained much attention because of their high carbon sequestration capacity. In this study, we used a boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model to simulate the gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) of bamboo forests in China during 2001–2018, and then explored the spatiotemporal evolution of the carbon fluxes and their response to climatic factors. The results showed that: (1) The simulated and observed GPP values exhibited a good correlation with the determination coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and absolute bias (aBIAS) of 0.58, 1.43 g C m−2 day−1, and 1.21 g C m−2 day−1, respectively. (2) During 2001–2018, GPP and NPP showed fluctuating increasing trends with growth rates of 5.20 g C m−2 yr−1 and 3.88 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively. The spatial distribution characteristics of GPP and NPP were stronger in the south and east than in the north and west. Additionally, the trend slope results showed that GPP and NPP mainly increased, and approximately 30% of the area showed a significant increasing trend. (3) Our study showed that more than half of the area exhibited the fact that the influence of the average annual precipitation had positive effects on GPP and NPP, while the average annual minimum and maximum temperatures had negative effects on GPP and NPP. On a monthly scale, our study also demonstrated that the influence of precipitation on GPP and NPP was higher than that of the influence of temperature on them.