Climatic Correlates of White Pine Blister Rust Infection in Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Paired acoustic recordings and point count surveys reveal Clark's nutcracker and whitebark pine associations across Glacier National Park

Global declines in tree populations have led to dramatic shifts in forest ecosystem composition, biodiversity, and functioning. These changes have consequences for both forest plant and wildlife communities, particularly when declining species are involved in coevolved mutualisms. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a declining keystone species in western North American high-elevation ecosystems and an obligate mutualist of Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana), an avian seed predator and disperser. By leveraging traditional point count surveys and passive acoustic monitoring, we investigated how stand characteristics of whitebark pine in a protected area (Glacier National Park, Montana, USA) influenced occupancy and vocal activity patterns in Clark's nutcracker. Using Bayesian spatial occupancy models and generalized linear mixed models, we found that habitat use of Clark's nutcracker was primarily supported by greater cone density and increasing diameter of live whitebark pine. Additionally, we demonstrated the value of performing parallel analyses with traditional point count surveys and passive acoustic monitoring to provide multiple lines of evidence for relationships between Clark's nutcracker and whitebark pine forest characteristics. Our findings allow managers to gauge the whitebark pine conditions important for retaining high nutcracker visitation and prioritize management efforts in whitebark pine ecosystems with low nutcracker visitation.

Clark's nutcracker forest community visitation: Whitebark pine maintains a keystone seed disperser

Clark's nutcrackers (Nucifraga columbiana) are obligate seed dispersers for whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), but they frequently use other conifer seed resources because of annual variability in cone production or geographic variation in whitebark pine availability. Whitebark pine is declining from several threats including white pine blister rust, leading to potential population declines in the nutcracker and the pine. We hypothesize that where there are few additional seed resources, whitebark pine becomes the key and limiting resource supporting nutcracker populations. We investigated how nutcrackers use coniferous forest community types within Yellowstone National Park to determine potential seed resources and the importance of whitebark pine. We established sites representing five forest community types, including whitebark pine, lodgepole pine (P. contorta), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), limber pine (P. flexilis), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii). Each transect annually generated nutcracker point counts, conifer cone production indices, community composition data, and seed resource use observations. We compared hierarchical distance sampling models, estimating nutcracker density and its relationship to forest community type, seed harvesting time-period, year, study site, and cone seed energy. We found cone production varied across years indicating annual variability in energy availability. Nutcracker density was best predicted by forest community type and survey time-period and was highest in whitebark pine stands during the mid-harvesting season. Nutcracker density was comparatively low for all other forest community types. This finding underscores the importance of whitebark pine as a key seed resource for Clark's nutcracker in Yellowstone National Park. The decline of whitebark pine potentially leads to a downward spiral in nutcrackers and whitebark pine, arguing for continued monitoring of nutcrackers and implementation of restoration treatments for whitebark pine.

Climate-induced outbreaks in high-elevation pines are driven primarily by immigration of bark beetles from historical hosts

Warming temperatures are allowing native insect herbivores to expand into regions that previously exceeded their thermal tolerance, encounter new host species, and pose significant threats to native communities. However, the dynamics of these expansions remain poorly understood, particularly in the extent to which outbreaks remain reliant on emigration from historical hosts or are driven by local reproduction within novel hosts in the expanded range. We tested these non-mutually exclusive hypotheses using spatially explicit data on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), which historically undergoes intermittent outbreaks in low-elevation lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), but is now causing severe mortality in a high-elevation endangered species, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). We compiled data from 2000 to 2019 across British Columbia, Canada, at 1-km² resolution, and analyzed spatiotemporal patterns of beetle infestations, lodgepole pine distributions, expansion into habitats dominated by whitebark pine, and the likelihood of future outbreaks in all pine communities under simulated conditions. Overall, we found strong support for the hypothesis of emigration from the historical host species continuing to be a major driver of outbreaks in the more recently accessed host. First, beetle population pressure was consistently the best predictor of infestation severity in both lodgepole and whitebark pine, and appeared to be mostly unidirectional from lodgepole to whitebark pine. Second, infestations in lodgepole pine were of a longer duration than those in whitebark pine, which appeared too brief to sustain transitions from endemic to eruptive dynamics. Furthermore, resource depletion appears to drive emigration from lodgepole pine, whereas in whitebark pine drought appears to favor establishment of immigrants although bioclimatic factors and stand structure preclude self-sustaining outbreaks. Finally, we project that most pine in British Columbia will be at risk in the event of a new major outbreak. We describe implications for conserving and protecting whitebark pine and to other climate-driven range expansions.

Historical changes in plant water use and need in the continental United States

A robust method for characterizing the biophysical environment of terrestrial vegetation uses the relationship between Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and Climatic Water Deficit (CWD). These variables are usually estimated from a water balance model rather than measured directly and are often more representative of ecologically-significant changes than temperature or precipitation. We evaluate trends and spatial patterns in AET and CWD in the Continental United States (CONUS) during 1980-2019 using a gridded water balance model. The western US had linear regression slopes indicating increasing CWD and decreasing AET (drying), while the eastern US had generally opposite trends. When limits to plant performance characterized by AET and CWD are exceeded, vegetation assemblages change. Widespread increases in aridity throughout the west portends shifts in the distribution of plants limited by available moisture. A detailed look at Sequoia National Park illustrates the high degree of fine-scale spatial variability that exists across elevation and topographical gradients. Where such topographical and climatic diversity exists, appropriate use of our gridded data will require sub-setting to an appropriate area and analyzing according to categories of interest such as vegetation communities or across obvious physical gradients. Recent studies have successfully applied similar water balance models to fire risk and forest structure in both western and eastern U.S. forests, arid-land spring discharge, amphibian colonization and persistence in wetlands, whitebark pine mortality and establishment, and the distribution of arid-land grass species and landscape scale vegetation condition. Our gridded dataset is available free for public use. Our findings illustrate how a simple water balance model can identify important trends and patterns at site to regional scales. However, at finer scales, environmental heterogeneity is driving a range of responses that may not be simply characterized by a single trend.

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4-6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8-7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0-1392.9) km² into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient-likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

The Threat of the Combined Effect of Biotic and Abiotic Stress Factors in Forestry Under a Changing Climate

Plants encounter several biotic and abiotic stresses, usually in combination. This results in major economic losses in agriculture and forestry every year. Climate change aggravates the adverse effects of combined stresses and increases such losses. Trees suffer even more from the recurrence of biotic and abiotic stress combinations owing to their long lifecycle. Despite the effort to study the damage from individual stress factors, less attention has been given to the effect of the complex interactions between multiple biotic and abiotic stresses. In this review, we assess the importance, impact, and mitigation strategies of climate change driven interactions between biotic and abiotic stresses in forestry. The ecological and economic importance of biotic and abiotic stresses under different combinations is highlighted by their contribution to the decline of the global forest area through their direct and indirect roles in forest loss and to the decline of biodiversity resulting from local extinction of endangered species of trees, emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and reduction in the productivity and quality of forest products and services. The abiotic stress factors such as high temperature and drought increase forest disease and insect pest outbreaks, decrease the growth of trees, and cause tree mortality. Reports of massive tree mortality events caused by "hotter droughts" are increasing all over the world, affecting several genera of trees including some of the most important genera in plantation forests, such as Pine, Poplar, and Eucalyptus. While the biotic stress factors such as insect pests, pathogens, and parasitic plants have been reported to be associated with many of these mortality events, a considerable number of the reports have not taken into account the contribution of such biotic factors. The available mitigation strategies also tend to undermine the interactive effect under combined stresses. Thus, this discussion centers on mitigation strategies based on research and innovation, which build on models previously used to curb individual stresses.