The Application of Time Series Decomposition for the Identification and Analysis of Fluctuations in Timber Supply and Price: A Case Study from Poland

The Seasonal Fluctuation of Timber Prices in Hyrcanian Temperate Forests, Northern Iran

Seasonal fluctuations play an important role in the pricing of a timber sale. A good understanding of timber price mechanisms and predictability in the timber market would be very practical for forest owners, managers, and investors, and is crucial for the correct functioning of the timber sector. This research aimed to analyze the effect of sale season on timber (sawlog and lumber) prices of high-value species groups (e.g., oriental beech, chestnut-leaved oak, common alder, velvet maple, and common hornbeam) in the Hyrcanian temperate forests (Northern Iran). The data were collected from official sale documents of the Azarroud Forestry Plan from 1992 to 2015. The relevant data of 592 sale lots at forest roadside were extracted into a data set. Then, the average timber prices (sawlog and lumber) per season/year in quarterly frequency were calculated. In doing so, two-time series of seasonal prices for the sawlog and lumber was obtained. The stationarity of the time series was statistically verified using the augmented Dickey–Fuller test. The effect of sale seasons on timber price was first analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis dummy variables. The results showed that autumn and summer have a significant positive effect on timber prices of 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively. Additionally, the decomposition of time series results showed that the highest prices of the sawlog and lumber were in quarter 3 and quarter 2, respectively, due to an increase in construction activities that picked up in the autumn season. Information about potential price fluctuations will be plausible and allow suppliers and users of sawlogs to adjust their supply and demand. This valuable information can be used in marketing and strategic forest management planning for Hyrcanian temperate forests and other temperate countries with similar conditions.

Between Biodiversity Conservation and the Supply for Broadleaved Wood: A Case Study of State Forests National Forest Holding (Poland)

Climate change is an important issue that increasingly affects our lives. One of the proposals for mitigating climate change is fighting biodiversity loss, which can support climate mitigation and adaptation actions. In Poland, the possibility of excluding large tracts of forest areas from use is being considered. The discussed the exclusion of forest land from use will affect the timber supply and market, especially for broadleaved wood. The main purpose of this analysis is to present a timber supply forecast, with a particular focus on the possibility of obtaining broadleaved hardwood timber in Poland from forests managed by State Forests National Forest Holding under three scenarios that assume different criteria for selecting forest areas for protection. The work was divided into two main phases: (1) the analysis of historical sales volume of wood products and average sale prices of hardwood during the period 2011–2020; (2) the preparation of a forecast of the potential possibility of maintaining broadleaved hardwood production in the three decades between 2020 and 2049. In the forecast, it was assumed that about 2.7 million hectares of planted and production forests are excluded from use in order to implement the provisions of the 2030 Biodiversity Strategy. In Scenario “I”, the supply of merchantable broadleaved roundwood volume will be reduced to 14%–18% that of Scenario “0”. In Scenario “II”, 55% of the “0” scenario is harvested, and in Scenario “III”, 33%–37% of the “0” scenario merchantable broadleaved roundwood is harvested. The introduction of restrictions on timber harvesting as a result of Poland’s compliance with European Union requirements in the area of environmental protection will lead to a significant reduction in the supply of timber on the market. This may lead to a further increase in timber prices and an increase in the importance of large timber buyers at the expense of local buyers. The recommendations contained in the policy objectives that the EU sets for the states should be supported by a thorough analysis when selecting areas for strict protection.

Analysis of Qualitative Features of Beech and Oak Trunks as a Determinant of the Quality Assessment

Proper quality assessment of timber requires a certain level of knowledge and overview of technical conditions and correct identification and assessment of the qualitative features of trunks. The ratio of the highest quality classes is decreasing. Therefore, increasing the potential financial resources allocated to forest management could lead to the improvement and increase of this ratio. The objective of the study was to identify the frequency and occurrence of limiting features in the group of non-coniferous beech and oak trunks. A further objective was to classify major factors causing and increasing the frequency of occurrence of such limiting marks. Altogether, 969 beech and oak trunks were assessed in the University Forest Enterprise of the Technical University in Zvolen. The dependences of the size and occurrence of individual qualitative features on the selected factors were statistically assessed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Cramer’s V; significance was established using χ2 test and a significance level α = 0.05. The most frequently occurring features were sweep, knots, and heart shakes. The results of the comparative and statistical analysis indicate that the management of forest stands and interventions carried out in the forest stands affect the occurrence of the negative features being analyzed the most. However, the conditions of the given site (soil, subsoil, and slope) also play a certain role and can affect the technological aspect of the harvest. The obtained results are valid for the conditions of the University Forest Enterprise of the Technical University in Zvolen; however, they can also be applied in a wider range of similar conditions of Central European forest stands.

The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

The European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is the most prevalent deciduous tree species in Central Europe. The implementation of sustainable, close-to-nature silvicultural practices increased the percentage share of beech in forest species composition, raising the economic significance of beech roundwood, especially in terms of revenues from timber sales. The elucidation of roundwood price mechanisms as well as long-term equilibrium relations between international markets may be helpful in calculating the profitability of beech roundwood production. The study material consists of quarterly time series of beech roundwood prices from Austria, Czechia, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia in the years 2005–2018. The price time series were described with a multiplicative model incorporating seasonal, cyclical, and irregular, as well as long-term trend components. The time series were decomposed using the Census X11 method. Stationarity was tested by means of the augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test (KPSS). Cointegration was assessed using the Johansen and Engle–Granger methods. From 2005–2018, the highest mean beech roundwood prices were found for Austria (77.5 € m−3) and Germany, and the lowest for Poland and Slovakia. Roundwood prices were badly affected by the 2008/2009 financial crisis, which caused an approx. 27% decline. The prices of large-diameter beech logs exhibited seasonal fluctuations, typically reaching a maximum in Q1 and a minimum in Q3. The amplitude of those fluctuations was the highest in Slovenia in 2005 (10.1%), while in Czechia and Germany, seasonal effects increased over the period of study. The lowest seasonality was found in Slovakia and Austria (in the latter country it was not statistically significant). On an annual scale, cyclical changes generally accounted for the largest proportion of price variation, and were particularly pronounced in Poland (78.9%), Slovakia (78.6%), and Austria (69.2%). On the other hand, seasonal effects were predominant in the Slovenian (40.6%), German (34.1%), and Czech (33.3%) markets. In countries with price series of type I(0), simple correlation between stationary beech roundwood prices is positive and the strongest between Czechia–Poland and Czechia–Austria; on the other hand they are the weakest in the German market. In Slovakia and Slovenia with nonstationary price series, both Johansen’s and Engle-Granger’s cointegration tests indicated the absence of a long-term equilibrium between the analyzed beech timber markets. Results revealed integration between the prices of large-diameter beech logs in Czechia, Austria, and Poland. It should be mentioned that in this study, the time series of price used are rather short for long time cointegration analysis, which might prevent the proper detection of cointegration between all analyzed countries.

The Impacts of Calamity Logging on the Development of Spruce Wood Prices in Czech Forestry

Currently, the decline in spruce wood prices is a serious problem for the forestry sector in the Czech Republic. We estimate that the fall in wood prices in European markets causes losses not only to the forestry companies producing, harvesting, and processing the wood, but also to the workers in the sector. These losses are mainly caused by a combination of several natural factors: drought, climate change, and the effects of bark beetles. In particular, spruce bark beetles cause the greatest damage. Due to this bark beetle calamity, unplanned logging has increased. In 2019, these damages have culminated. Almost 100 million m3 of wood has been harvested over the last decade due to the bark beetle and more than half of this volume has been mined in the last four years. Therefore, the losses in the forestry sector are around EUR 1.12 billion. The aim of this study is an analysis of the relationship between the volume of incidental logging and the decline in the price of spruce wood. These results show the strong correlation between the measure of unplanned wood harvesting and the decrease in wood prices, as well as an estimate of price development if the upward trend of incidental mining continues. The average price of wood in the Czech Republic could thus reach a historical minimum of EUR 79.39 per m3 of spruce and category SM/JE II (spruce/fir). In addition, the decline in wood prices will be reflected in the management of forestry and timber businesses, including stagnant wages for forestry workers. The socio-economic impact of the bark beetle calamity is high and is most affected by the decline in spruce timber prices.