Modeling in Forestry Using Mixture Models Fitted to Grouped and Ungrouped Data

Individual Tree Basal Area Increment Models for Brazilian Pine (Araucaria angustifolia) Using Artificial Neural Networks

This research aimed to develop statistical models to predict basal area increment (BAI) for Araucaria angustifolia using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Tree species were measured for their biometric variables and identified at the species level. The data were subdivided into three groups: (1) intraspecific competition with A. angustifolia; (2) the first group of species that causes interspecific competition with A. angustifolia; and (3) the second group of species that causes interspecific competition with A. angustifolia. We calculated both the dependent and independent distance and the described competition indices, considering the impact of group stratification. Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) ANN was structured for modeling. The main results were that: (i) the input variables size and competition were the most significant, allowing us to explain up to 77% of the A. angustifolia BAI variations; (ii) the spatialization of the competing trees contributed significantly to the representation of the competitive status; (iii) the separate variables for each competition group improved the performance of the models; and (iv) besides the intraspecific competition, the interspecific competition also proved to be important to consider. The ANN developed showed precision and generalization, suggesting it could describe the increment of a species common in native forests in Southern Brazil and with potential for upcoming forest management initiatives.