Predicting the Potential Habitat of Three Endangered Species of Carpinus Genus under Climate Change and Human Activity

Can Bengal Tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) endure the future climate and land use change scenario in the East Himalayan Region? Perspective from a multiple model framework

Large mammals are susceptible to land use and climate change, unless they are safeguarded within large, protected areas. It is crucial to comprehend the effects of these changes on mammals to develop a conservation plan. We identified ecological hotspots that can sustain an ecosystem for the endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris), an umbrella species. We developed three distinct ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) for the Bengal tiger in the Indian East Himalayan Region (IEHR). The first model served as the baseline and considered habitat type, climate, land cover, and anthropogenic threats. The second model focused on climate, land use, and anthropogenic threats, the third model focused on climate variables. We projected the second and third models onto two future climate scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. We evaluated the threats possess to protected areas within eco-sensitive zone based on the potential tiger habitat. Finally, we compared the potential habitat with the IUCN tiger range. Our study revealed that the Brahmaputra valley will serve as the primary habitat for tigers in the future. However, considering the projected severe climate scenarios, it is anticipated that tigers will undergo a range shift towards the north and east, especially in high-altitude regions. Very high conservation priority areas, which make up 3.4% of the total area, are predominantly located in the riverine corridor of Assam. High conservation priority areas, which make up 5.5% of total area are located in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. It is important to note that conservation priority areas outside of protected areas pose a greater threat to tigers. We recommend reassessing the IUCN Red List's assigned range map for tigers in the IEHR, as it is over-predicted. Our study has led us to conclude both land use and climate change possess threats to the future habitat of tigers. The outcomes of our study will provide crucial information on identifying habitat hotspots and facilitate appropriate conservation planning efforts.

Morpho-physiological and demographic responses of three threatened Ilex species to changing climate aligned with species distribution models in future climate scenarios

The success of a species in future climate change scenarios depends on its morphological, physiological, and demographic adaptive responses to changing climate. The existence of threatened species against climate adversaries is constrained due to their small population size, narrow genetic base, and narrow niche breadth. We examined if ecological niche model (ENM)-based distribution predictions of species align with their morpho-physiological and demographic responses to future climate change scenarios. We studied three threatened Ilex species, viz., Ilex khasiana Purkay., I. venulosa Hook. f., and I. embelioides Hook. F, with restricted distribution in Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Demographic analysis of the natural populations of each species in Meghalaya, India revealed an upright pyramid suggesting a stable population under the present climate scenario. I. khasiana was confined to higher elevations only while I. venulosa and I. embelioides had wider altitudinal distribution ranges. The bio-climatic niche of I. khasiana was narrow, while the other two species had relatively broader niches. The ENM-predicted potential distribution areas under the current (2022) and future (2050) climatic scenarios (General Circulation Models (GCMs): IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO) revealed that the distribution of highly suitable areas for the most climate-sensitive I. khasiana got drastically reduced. In I. venulosa and I. embelioides, there was an increase in highly suitable areas under the future scenarios. The eco-physiological studies showed marked variation among the species, sites, and treatments (p < 0.05), indicating the differential responses of the three species to varied climate scenarios, but followed a similar trend in species performance aligning with the model predictions.

Regeneration of Pinus sibirica Du Tour in the Mountain Tundra of the Northern Urals against the Background of Climate Warming

Climate is one of the key drivers of the plant community’s structure and trends. However, the regional vegetation-climate features in the ecotone have not yet been sufficiently studied. The aim of the research is to study features of Pinus sibirica Du Tour germination, survival, and growth in the mountain tundra of the Northern Urals against the background of a changing climate. The following research objectives were set: To determine the abundance and age structure of P. sibirica undergrowth on the mountain tundra plateau, identify the features of P. sibirica growth in the mountain tundra, and examine the correlation between the multi-year air temperature pattern, precipitation, and P. sibirica seedling emergence. A detailed study of the Pinus sibirica natural regeneration in the mountain stony shrub-moss-lichen tundra area at an altitude of 1010–1040 m above sea level on the Tri Bugra mountain massif plateau (59°30′ N, 59°15′ E) in the Northern Urals (Russia) has been conducted. The research involved the period between 1965 and 2017. Woody plant undergrowth was considered in 30 plots, 5 × 5 m in size. The first generations were recorded from 1967–1969. The regeneration has become regular since 1978 and its intensity has been increasing since then. Climate warming is driving these processes. Correlation analysis revealed significant relationships between the number of Pinus sibirica seedlings and the minimum temperature in August and September of the current year, the minimum temperatures in May, June, and November of the previous year, the maximum temperatures in May and August of the current year, and precipitation in March of both the current and previous years. However, the young tree growth rate remains low to date (the height at an age of 45–50 years is approximately 114 ± 8.8 cm). At the same time, its open crowns are rare single lateral shoots. The length of the side shoots exceeds its height by 4–5 times, and the length of the lateral roots exceeds its height by 1.2–1.5 times. This is an indicator of the extreme conditions for this tree species. With the current rates of climate warming and the Pinus sibirica tree growth trends, the revealed relationships allow for the prediction that in 20–25 years, the mountain tundra in the studied Northern Urals plateau could develop underground-closed forest communities with a certain forest relationship. The research results are of theoretical importance for clarifying the forest-tundra ecotone concept. From a practical point of view, the revealed relationship can be used to predict the trend in forest ecosystem formation in the mountain forest-tundra ecotone.

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

Global climate change has become a major threat to biodiversity, posing severe challenges to species conservation. This is particularly true for species such as Horsfieldia tetratepala that have extremely small populations in the wild. Little is known about the species distribution of H. tetratepala in the current climate, as well as how that will change with potential future climates. The key environmental factors that influence its expansion, especially its habitat sustainability and its potential to adapt to climate change, are also unknown, though such information is vital for the protection of this endangered species. Based on six climate factors and 25 species distribution points, this study used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution for H. tetratepala in three periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s), and to investigate the changes in distribution patterns and the main environmental factors affecting species distribution. The modeling results show that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting H. tetratepala were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio_18) and temperature seasonality (Bio_4). The suitable areas for H. tetratepala will gradually be lost in Yunnan but will be generally offset in the northeastward direction, expanding in Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan provinces under the future climate conditions. Therefore, we recommend protecting the habitats of H. tetratepala in Yunnan and strengthening the in-depth species investigation and monitoring in areas (Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan) where no related reports of H. tetratepala have been reported. The results improve our understanding of this species’ response under the changing climate and benefit strategies for its conservation.

Simulation Models of the Dynamics of Forest Ecosystems

The development of simulation models of the dynamics of forest ecosystems has been an active area of research [...]

The Impact of Resources on the Adaptability of State Forest Companies. Some Evidence from the State Forests National Forest Holding

Structural, economic, and climate changes human activity and the growing complexity of the business environment significantly affect the forestry sector, which faces the need to adapt to the dynamically changing environment by strategic development of appropriate resources and skills. In this paper, we attempted to take on the managerial lens of dynamic capabilities, i.e., the abilities to adapt to the changes in the business environment to analyze whether the forestry sector is able to strategically develop resources that influence adaptability. We have attempted to demonstrate how the resources of the forest enterprises affect the adaptability described by the dynamic capabilities construct. Bearing in mind the importance of State Forests, we collected data from 129 forest districts in Poland and applied the ordered logistic regression to identify models that show the impact of specific categories of resources onto the forestry sector adaptability, described by the construct of dynamic capabilities. The results suggest that the forest districts strategically investing in technological, as well as human resources and skills, have higher chances of maintaining and developing the ability to adapt to the constantly changing economic environment. At the same time, our findings show that financial, reputational, and marketable resources and skills have no impact on the adaptability of the State Forests National Forest Holding.

Predicting Potential Habitat of a Plant Species with Small Populations under Climate Change: Ostryarehderiana

Ostrya rehderiana is a famous plant species with extremely small populations. With ongoing global climate change, the extremely small populations would face more uncertainties and risks, including the loss of genetic diversity and extirpation. Thus, assessing the impact of climate change on suitable habitat of O. rehderiana is particularly important for its conservation and restoration. Here, we built niche models with climate variables and soil and human footprint variables. Furthermore, new methods were applied to avoid confounding effects between climate and soil and human footprint variables to simulate the potential habitats of O. rehderiana in current and future climates. We found that the Hargreaves climatic moisture deficit, degree-days below 0 °C, chilling degree-days, and the temperature difference between mean warmest month temperature and mean coldest month temperature, or continentality, were the most important climate factors. The topsoil USDA texture classification, topsoil cation exchange capacity of (clay), and topsoil sodicity (ESP) were the key soil factors determining the suitable distribution of O. rehderiana. Compared with soil factors, human footprint has less influence on the suitable distribution of O. rehderiana. The niche range of this species was projected to expand and shift to north in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the 2050s. Our study results could be referenced in further extremely small populations ecological restoration studies and provide the scientific strategies for the conservation and restoration of O. rehderiana.