Simulating the Effect of Climate Change on Vegetation Zone Distribution on the Loess Plateau, Northwest China

Climatic Niche of Vegetation Greenness Is Likely to Be Conservative in Degraded Land

Satellite data have been widely used to study changes in vegetation greenness in geographical space; however, this change is rarely considered in climatic space. Here, the climatic niche dynamics of vegetation greenness, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), was quantified in the climate space of the Loess Plateau, a piece of degraded land greening significantly from 2000 to 2018. The niche similarity test was used to examine the niche conservatism of vegetation greenness during the 19 years of restoration. The results show that the climate niche of vegetation greenness is always more similar than expected. The stability niche occupied most parts (83–98%) of their climatic niche, and niche overlap reached 0.52–0.69. Climate niche conservatism suggests that potential greenness constructed by statistical methods could be used as a criterion or baseline for ecosystem function restoration on the Loess Plateau. The study also suggests that the integrated niche similarity test in decision-making for restoration of degraded land will clarify our understanding of the climatic niche dynamics of vegetation greenness and the making of forecasts.

The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution and Evolution Process of Catalpa bungei in China

Catalpa bungei C. A. Mey. (C. bungei) is one of the recommended native species for ecological management in China. It is a fast-growing tree of high economic and ecological importance, but its rare resources, caused by anthropogenic destruction and local climatic degradation, have not satisfied the requirements. It has been widely recommended for large-scale afforestation of ecological management and gradually increasing in recent years, but the impact mechanism of climate change on its growth has not been studied yet. Studying the response of species to climate change is an important part of national afforestation planning. Based on combinations of climate, topography, soil variables, and the multiple model ensemble (MME) of CMIP6, this study explored the relationship between C. bungei and climate change, then constructed Maxent to predict its potential distribution under SSP126 and SSP585 and analyzed its dominant environmental factors. The results showed that C. bungei is widely distributed in Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi provinces and others where it covers an area of 2.96 × 106 km2. Under SSP126 and SSP585, its overall habitat area will increase by more than 14.2% in 2080–2100, which mainly indicates the transformation of unsuitable areas into low suitable areas. The center of its distribution will migrate to the north with a longer distance under SSP585 than that under SSP126, and it will transfer from the junction of Shaanxi and Hubei province to the north of Shaanxi province under SSP585 by 2100. In that case, C. bungei shows a large-area degradation trend in the south of the Yangtze River Basin but better suitability in the north of the Yellow River Basin, such as the Northeast Plain, the Tianshan Mountains, the Loess Plateau, and others. Temperature factors have the greatest impact on the distribution of C. bungei. It is mainly affected by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, followed by precipitation of the wettest month, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Our results hence demonstrate that the increase of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter becomes the main reason for its degradation, which simultaneously means a larger habitat boundary in Northeast China. The findings provide scientific evidence for the ecological restoration and sustainable development of C. bungei in China.

Bioclimatic Suitability of Actual and Potential Cultivation Areas for Jacaranda mimosifolia in Chinese Cities

Jacaranda mimosifolia is regarded as a prized ornamental tree in the urban landscape with attractive, abundant and long-lasting violet-colored flowers and graceful tree form. It has been widely cultivated in recent years in many Chinese cities. However, the lack of scientific and practical guidance to cultivate the exotic species has brought about planting failures in some areas, incurring substantial economic losses and landscape decline. A comprehensive understanding of the current spatial pattern and climatic conditions of J. mimosifolia in China can inform species choice, planting and management. We collected data on the geographical coordinates of 257 planting cities and acquired additional information from the literature and field surveys. The limiting factors for cultivation were investigated using principal component analysis (PCA) of 19 bioclimatic parameters of the sampled sites. The potentially suitable habitats were predicted by BIOCLIM modeling using eight selected ecological-important climatic parameters. We found that the present cultivated areas were focused in the low-altitude parts of the subtropical zone, mainly covering the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. The PCA results indicated that temperature was the clinching determinant of the current cultivation patterns, especially annual mean temperature, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Moisture was a necessary but not critical secondary factor. The predicting model for potential habitats was graded as “excellent” by objective validation measures. The findings can provide science-based evidence to plan the expansion of the biogeographical range of cultivation into hitherto unplanted cities and rationalize urban tree introduction and management practices.

Integrating Habitat Suitability and the Near-Nature Restoration Priorities into Revegetation Plans Based on Potential Vegetation Distribution

Selecting optimal revegetation patterns and filtering priority areas can improve the effectiveness and efficiency of revegetation planning, particularly in areas with severe vegetation damage. However, few people include optimal revegetation patterns and priority restoration areas into revegetation plans. The Near-Nature restoration pays attention to “based on nature” ideas, guiding the degraded ecosystems to reorganize and achieving sustainable restoration through self-regulation. In this study, we conducted a field survey of the native vegetation communities in the Yanhe River catchment, and the data obtained were used to construct the potential distribution suitability of the habitat and screen the priority areas through the combination of MaxEnt and prioritizr models. We drew a heat map of species richness by simulating the potential distribution of 60 native species. The results showed that the potentially suitable habitats for forest cover were distributed in the southern part of the Yanhe River catchment; the potentially suitable habitats for herbaceous plant species were located in the center and the northwest parts of the study area; the potentially suitable habitats for shrub plant species in this area were larger than that of the forest, and herbaceous plants species were distributed in many zones of the study area. This study demonstrated that shrubs and herbaceous plant species in parts of the Loess Plateau should be considered as the pioneer plants of revegetation in future revegetation plans. Moreover, we also mapped the priority area of the Near-Nature restoration based on the richness of the potential native species. The procedure followed in this study could provide guidance for revegetation planning and manual management in the regions where vegetation damage occurs.

The Joint Effects of Precipitation Gradient and Afforestation on Soil Moisture across the Loess Plateau of China

Understanding the dependence of soil moisture changes following afforestation on the precipitation gradient and afforested vegetation types is crucial for improving ongoing afforestation projects, and to guide future restoration strategies in water-limited regions. For this study, we characterized afforestation-induced changes in soil moisture at depths of 0–3.0 m across a precipitation gradient in the semi-arid Loess Plateau of China. A paired experiment was conducted across 15 sites, where native grasslands served as the baseline hydrology. The results showed that korshinsk peashrub (Caragana korshinskii Kom.), sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.), and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) afforestation caused an overall strong decline in soil moisture content at depths of below 2.2 m. The degree of soil moisture decline at the regional scale did not vary between different afforested vegetation types but was contingent on precipitation. With decreasing precipitation gradients, afforestation increased the cost of deep soil moisture. Precipitation restrictions began to appear at mean annual precipitation (MAP) = 520 mm, and were intensified at MAP = 380 mm, which could be employed to divide the Loess Plateau into different ecological regions. Because of this, different strategies should be assigned in future restoration practices to these ecological regions to align with localized precipitation conditions. It will likely be prudent to encourage afforestation in areas with MAP of more than 520 mm, while advocating alternative grassland restoration in areas with MAP of less than 380 mm.

Parapatric subspecies of Macaca assamensis show a marginal overlap in their predicted potential distribution: Some elaborations for modern conservation management

Phylogenetic niche conservatism implies that sister taxa will have similar niches, although the niches of disjunct subspecies may evolve differently. This study uses Macaca assamensis, subspecies assamensis and pelops, to investigate the similarities of realized climatic niches of two disjunct subspecies (separated by the Brahmaputra River) along with a similarity analysis of their respective regions' climate. Modeled distributions were used to quantify their potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The climatic similarity between regions of each subspecies was tested with principal component analysis (PCA), and the realized climatic niche overlap between two subspecies was tested with a multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) on a subset of the least correlated variables out of 24 publicly available topo-bioclimatic variables. Tukey's honest significance difference (HSD) was used to test the range differences (on all 24 variables) between subspecies. The potential distribution of both taxa in the current climate and projected future climate was model-predicted using MaxEnt and Random Forest. We found significantly different climatic ranges for 21 predictors (HSD; p < 0.05) for the two subspecies, significantly different climatic conditions for their regions (using PCA; p < 0.001), and significantly different realized climatic niches for the two subspecies (MANOVA; p < 0.001). The distribution models generated a larger potential area than the currently known distributions. Although literature show that the Brahmaputra River is an effective dispersal barrier, we found some of the neighboring geographic range for both subspecies appears to be potentially suitable for the other taxon. The projected future potential areas indicate that some parts of the currently occupied geography, mostly southern parts, may become climatically unsuitable, whereas other new geographical areas may become suitable. Most of these new potential areas will be toward the north where higher and fragmented mountains, which has conservation implications.