Nonlinear Simultaneous Equations for Individual-Tree Diameter Growth and Mortality Model of Natural Mongolian Oak Forests in Northeast China

Modelling Individual Tree Diameter Growth of Quercus mongolica Secondary Forest in the Northeast of China

Quercus mongolica secondary forest is widely distributed in the northeast of China, but it usually has low productivity, unstable structure, poor health, and low biodiversity. Diameter is a tree variable that is commonly used for forest growth measurement, to provide the basis for forest management decision. Two level generalized linear mixed effects individual tree diameter growth model were developed using data from two times surveys of 12 Q. mongolica secondary forest permanent plots that were distributed among Wangqing forest farms. Random effects of 14 tree species and 12 plots were introduced into the basic model consisting of three factors: tree size, competition of surrounding trees, and site quality. The results showed that initial diameter at breast height(DBH) was the most important variable affecting diameter growth, followed by competition, while the effect of site quality on diameter growth was not significant. Compared with the basic model, the prediction accuracy of the mixed effect model was improved by 17.69 %, where R2 reached to 0.6805, indicating that it is suitable for the individual-tree diameter growth prediction of the secondary forest of Q. mongolica.

Aggregated Biomass Model Systems and Carbon Concentration Variations for Tree Carbon Quantification of Natural Mongolian Oak in Northeast China

Three systems of additive biomass models were developed and the effects of tree components, tree sizes, and tree growing regions on the carbon concentration were analyzed for Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb.) in the natural forests of Northeastern China. The nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NSUR) method was used to fit each of the three systems simultaneously; namely, aggregated model systems with no parameter restriction (AMS0), aggregated model systems with one parameter restriction (AMS1), and aggregated model systems with three parameter restrictions (AMS3). A unique weighting function for each biomass model was applied to address the heteroscedasticity issue. The systems assertively guarantee the additivity property, in which, the summation of the respective predicted tree components (i.e., root, stem, branch, and foliage) will match the prediction of subtotals (i.e., crown and aboveground) and total biomass. Using one-, two-, and three-predictor combinations (i.e., D (diameter at breast height), D and H (total height), and D, H, and CL (crown length)) as the general model underlying formats, three systems of additive biomass model were developed. Our results indicate that (1) all of the aggregated model systems performed well and the differences between the systems were relatively small; (2) the rank order of the three systems based on an array of statistics are as follows: AMS0 > AMS1 > AMS3; (3) the carbon concentration significantly varied depending on the types of tree tissues and growing regions; (4) the regional respective component carbon concentration and regional weighted mean carbon concentration multiplied by observed biomass value appeared to be the best approach to calculate carbon stock.

Individual Tree Diameter Growth Models of Larch–Spruce–Fir Mixed Forests Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Individual tree growth models are flexible and commonly used to represent growth dynamics for heterogeneous and structurally complex uneven-aged stands. Besides traditional statistical models, the rapid development of nonparametric and nonlinear machine learning methods, such as random forest (RF), boosted regression tree (BRT), cubist (Cubist) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), provides a new way for predicting individual tree growth. However, the application of these approaches to individual tree growth modelling is still limited and short of a comparison of their performance. The objectives of this study were to compare and evaluate the performance of the RF, BRT, Cubist and MARS models for modelling the individual tree diameter growth based on tree size, competition, site condition and climate factors for larch–spruce–fir mixed forests in northeast China. Totally, 16,619 observations from long-term sample plots were used. Based on tenfold cross-validation, we found that the RF, BRT and Cubist models had a distinct advantage over the MARS model in predicting individual tree diameter growth. The Cubist model ranked the highest in terms of model performance (RMSEcv [0.1351 cm], MAEcv [0.0972 cm] and R2cv [0.5734]), followed by BRT and RF models, whereas the MARS ranked the lowest (RMSEcv [0.1462 cm], MAEcv [0.1086 cm] and R2cv [0.4993]). Relative importance of predictors determined from the RF and BRT models demonstrated that the competition and tree size were the main drivers to diameter growth, and climate had limited capacity in explaining the variation in tree diameter growth at local scale. In general, the RF, BRT and Cubist models are effective and powerful modelling methods for predicting the individual tree diameter growth.