Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

Landscape Planning Integrated Approaches to Support Post-Wildfire Restoration in Natural Protected Areas: The Vesuvius National Park Case Study

In recent decades in the Mediterranean basin there has been a considerable increase in both the number of wildfires and the extent of fire-damaged areas, resulting in ecological and socio-economic impacts. Protected areas are particularly vulnerable and many characteristics underpinning their legal protection are threatened. Several studies have been devoted to mitigating wildfire risks inside the protected areas, however often only in regard to natural heritage losses. Based on the adaptive wildfire resilience approaches, this work proposes a framework of actions that integrates natural, social and economic components. Starting from the Vesuvius National Park case study, affected by wildfires in 2017, the paper proposes a framework of action, envisaging two main phases: (i) the identification of priority intervention areas, by means of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, and (ii) damage assessment by using a monetary approach to value ecosystem services (ESs). The results identified priority areas where to concentrate economic and material resources, and estimated ecosystems damage, demonstrated ESs losses in areas adjacent to the burnt ones. This work, by integrating the relation between environmental sciences and policy, underpins a medium-long term development planning process. The aim of this work is to support landscape management and planning that includes socio-economic components such as sustainable development measures.

Methodology for the Study of Near-Future Changes of Fire Weather Patterns with Emphasis on Archaeological and Protected Touristic Areas in Greece

This work introduces a methodology for assessing near-future fire weather pattern changes based on the Canadian Fire Weather Index system components (Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI), Fire Severity Rating (FSR)), applied in touristic areas in Greece. Four series of daily raster-based datasets for the fire seasons (May–October), concerning a historic (2006 to 2015) and a future climatology period (2036–2045), were created for the areas under consideration, based on high-resolution climate modelling with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), PCR 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The climate model data were obtained from the European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) climate database and consisted of atmospheric variables as required by the FWI system, at 12.5 km spatial resolution. The final datasets of the abovementioned variables used for the study were processed at 5 km spatial resolution for the domain of interest after applying regridding based on the nearest neighbour interpolating process. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial operations, including spatial statistics and zonal analyses, were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output thematic layers. Moreover, historic FWI percentile values, which were estimated for Greece in the frame of a past research study of the Environmental Research Laboratory (EREL), were used as reference data for further evaluation of future fire weather changes. The straightforward methodology for the assessment of the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of Fire weather Danger due to climate change presented herewith is an essential tool for enhancing the knowledge for the decision support process for forest fire prevention, planning and management policies in areas where the fire risk both in terms of fire hazard likelihood and expected impact is quite important due to human presence and cultural prestige, such as archaeological and tourist protected areas.

Fire regime dynamics in mainland Spain. Part 2: A near-future prospective of fire activity

The current research belongs to a series of two manuscripts aiming at describing spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime and its drivers in Spain. In this work, we present the first attempt to produce a spatial-temporal delimitation of homogeneous fire regime zones in Spain providing insights into the near future. The analyses were based on historical fire records; leveraging autoregressive models to project fire features into the near future. We evaluated the spatial extent of homogenous fire regime zones in three different periods: past (1974-1994), current (1995-2015) and future (2016-2036). To do so, we applied Principal Component Analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering to identify zones of fire regime on the basis of the spatial and temporal arrangement of their main fire features: number of fires, burned area, burnt area from natural-caused fires, incidence of large fires (> 100 ha) and seasonality. Clusters of fire regime were trained in the current period, being later projected into the past and future periods using of k-Nearest Neighbor classification. ARIMA modeling forecasted a shrinkage in all fire features except natural-caused fires that remained stable. Overall, we detected a transition from significant fire incidence in the past towards a situation with moderate impact of fires in the near future. The Mediterranean coast experienced the largest decline in fire activity with few locations maintaining the historical levels of occurrence of large fires. On the other hand, the Northwestern end of Spain depicted a progression towards winter fire activity while still linked to large fires. This pattern persisted in the near future along the northern coast, whereas an intermix of minor fire progression and regression was expected thorough the hinterlands and the Mediterranean.

Fire regime dynamics in mainland Spain. Part 2: A near-future prospective of fire activity

The current research belongs to a series of two manuscripts aiming at describing spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime and its drivers in Spain. In this work, we present the first attempt to produce a spatial-temporal delimitation of homogeneous fire regime zones in Spain providing insights into the near future. The analyses were based on historical fire records; leveraging autoregressive models to project fire features into the near future. We evaluated the spatial extent of homogenous fire regime zones in three different periods: past (1974-1994), current (1995-2015) and future (2016-2036). To do so, we applied Principal Component Analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering to identify zones of fire regime on the basis of the spatial and temporal arrangement of their main fire features: number of fires, burned area, burnt area from natural-caused fires, incidence of large fires (> 100 ha) and seasonality. Clusters of fire regime were trained in the current period, being later projected into the past and future periods using of k-Nearest Neighbor classification. ARIMA modeling forecasted a shrinkage in all fire features except natural-caused fires that remained stable. Overall, we detected a transition from significant fire incidence in the past towards a situation with moderate impact of fires in the near future. The Mediterranean coast experienced the largest decline in fire activity with few locations maintaining the historical levels of occurrence of large fires. On the other hand, the Northwestern end of Spain depicted a progression towards winter fire activity while still linked to large fires. This pattern persisted in the near future along the northern coast, whereas an intermix of minor fire progression and regression was expected thorough the hinterlands and the Mediterranean.

The Toledo Mountains: A Resilient Landscape and a Landscape for Resilience? Hazards and Strategies in a Mid-Elevation Mountain Region in Central Spain

The Toledo Mountains are a mid-elevation mountain range that separates the Tagus and Guadiana basins in the central area of the Iberian Peninsula. The location of these mountains allows the development of typical Mediterranean vegetation with some Atlantic influence. Consequently, typical broadleaved evergreen Mediterranean vegetation currently dominates the regional landscape, with the remarkable presence of more mesophilous species in sheltered and more humid microsites such as gorges (e.g., Prunus lusitanica, Taxus baccata, Ilex aquifolium) and mires/bogs (e.g., Betula pendula susbp. fontqueri, Erica tetralix, Myrica gale). Palaeoecological studies in these mountains are essential to understand the long-term ecology and original distribution of these valuable communities and are key to assess their resilience. Understanding the hazards and opportunities faced in the past by the plant communities of the Toledo Mountains is necessary to enhance the management and protection of those species currently threatened. This study focuses on El Perro mire, a peatland on the southern Toledo Mountains (central Spain) where climatic variability has played a major role in landscape dynamics at multi-decadal to millennial timescales. Climatic events such as the 4.2 ka cal. Before Present (BP) or the Little Ice Age triggered relevant landscape changes such as the spread and latter decline of birch and hazel forests. Human communities also seemed to be affected by these events, as their resilience was apparently jeopardized by the new climatic conditions and they were forced to find new strategies to cope with the new scenarios.

Regional fire scenarios in Spain: Linking landscape dynamics and fire regime for wildfire risk management

Fire scenarios are multiscale land-type planning units for a fire regime with different applications at national, regional, and local scales. The main aim of this research is to implement a methodology integrating landscape dynamics and wildfire risk from a context-specific approach, to identify current fire scenarios at a regional scale in the Spanish Central Mountain Range. These homogeneous areas are linked to different stages of a territorial dynamics model called wildfire generations and related to land use diversity and land management trends. A place-based methodology has been developed to characterize fire scenarios using Geographic Information Systems and statistical analysis, resulting in analytical and diagnostic mapping that can be used as a decision support tool for spatial planning and wildfire risk management. Its implementation has led to the delimitation of 91 discrete geographic units in the Central Mountain Range, classified according to wildfire generations and land use-land cover criteria. In conclusion, the fire scenarios concept is a potential approach to manage uncertainty by moving from the operational level of fire suppression to the strategic level of integrated fire management.

Socioeconomic Development, Demographic Dynamics and Forest Fires in Italy, 1961–2017: A Time-Series Analysis

Empirical studies investigating long-term trends in wildfires’ frequency and severity have been relatively scarce in Europe. Number of fire events, total burnt area and average fire size were studied between 1961 and 2017 in Italy with the aim to identify homogeneous time periods with similar wildfire frequency and severity and correlate them with the background socioeconomic context. Fire attributes had a diverging behavior over time: the number of fires was the highest in the 1970s and the early 1980s; total burnt area was relatively more constant over time with a peak in the 1980s; and, finally, average fire size decreased quite homogeneously from the peak observed in the 1960s and early 1970s. The number of fires and average fire size were significantly influenced by the value of the same variable one year before. Investigating long-term historical outlines of forest fires, a mixed approach based on time-series statistical analysis, multivariate techniques and regressive models intended to define changes in fire regimes and socioeconomic development. In fact, the comparative valuation of the socioeconomic aspects and wildfire trends can reveal a key step to recognizing mitigation and preventive possibilities. Through a multivariate analysis, a substantial difference in the socioeconomic profile can emerge by decade, evidencing a (more or less) rapid socioeconomic development in relation to the evolution of forest fires in Italy.

The background context matters: Local-scale socioeconomic conditions and the spatial distribution of wildfires in Italy

Wildfires, a key socio-environmental challenge in Mediterranean regions, are influenced by anthropogenic factors shaping land-use and socioeconomic spatial structures. By assuming that the dominant socioeconomic structure of local districts exerts a variable impact on wildfire spatial regimes, the present study investigates 174 indicators on a municipal scale in Italy, identifying a multidimensional relationship between wildfire characteristics and socioeconomic contexts. An exploratory statistical approach was adopted to identify linear and non-linear relationships among variables assessing socioeconomic contexts and wildfire patterns. Empirical results demonstrate that characteristic wildfire attributes (frequency, intensity and severity) are systematically higher in socioeconomic contexts characterized by rural poverty, unemployment and deregulated urban expansion, especially in southern Italy. A higher fire frequency was typically observed in (i) peri-urban districts with a dynamic socio-demographic profile and (ii) in rural districts with intensive cropping systems. Joint information on socioeconomic structure/dynamics and environmental change, is crucial for a better understanding of local-scale spatial patterns of wildfires in the Mediterranean region. Integrated socio-environmental information provides a better understanding of the local communities' role in the management of wildfire-prone land, contributing to implement more effective strategies aimed at minimizing wildfire impact on land resources.