The Effects of Climate Change on the Development of Tree Plantations for Biodiesel Production in China

An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Predicting Shifts in the Suitable Climatic Distribution of Walnut (Juglans regia L.) in China: Maximum Entropy Model Paves the Way to Forest Management

Cultivation of woody oil plants in environmentally suitable habitats is a successful ecological solution for oil development and forest management. In this study, we predicted the influences of future climate change on the potentially suitable climatic distribution of an important woody oil plant species (walnut; Juglans regia L.) in China based on given climate change scenarios and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The MaxEnt model showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month and annual precipitation were the most important determinant variables limiting the geographical distribution of J. regia. We have found that the current suitable environmental habitat of J. regia is mainly distributed in central and southwestern China. Results of the MaxEnt model showed that global warming in the coming half-century may lead to an increase in the area size of environmentally suitable habitats for J. regia in China, indicating more lands available for artificial cultivation and oil production. However, those suitable habitat gains may be practically inaccessible due to over-harvest and urban development, and effective management strategies are urgently needed to establish those forests. This research will provide theoretical suggestions for the protection, cultivation management, and sustainable utilization of J. regia resources to face the challenge of global climate change.