Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

The Spatial Shifts and Vulnerability Assessment of Ecological Niches under Climate Change Scenarios for Betula luminifera, a Fast-Growing Precious Tree in China

The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessments of ecological niches for trees will offer fresh perspectives for sustainable development and preservation of forests, particularly within the framework of rapid climate change. Betula luminifera is a fast-growing native timber plantation species in China, but the natural resources have been severely damaged. Here, a comprehensive habitat suitability model (including ten niche-based GIS modeling algorithms) was developed that integrates three types of environmental factors, namely, climatic, soil, and ultraviolet variables, to assess the species contemporary and future distribution of suitable habitats across China. Our results suggest that the habitats of B. luminifera generally occur in subtropical areas (about 1.52 × 106 km2). However, the growth of B. luminifera is profoundly shaped by the nuances of its local environment, the most reasonable niche spaces are only 1.15 × 106 km2 when limiting ecological factors (soil and ultraviolet) are considered, generally considered as the core production region. Furthermore, it is anticipated that species-suitable habitats will decrease by 10 and 8% with climate change in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Our study provided a clear understanding of species-suitable habitat distribution and identified the reasons why other niche spaces are unsuitable in the future, which can warn against artificial cultivation and conservation planning.

Identifying potential provenances for climate-change adaptation using spatially variable coefficient models

BACKGROUND

Selection of climate-change adapted ecotypes of commercially valuable species to date relies on DNA-assisted screening followed by growth trials. For trees, such trials can take decades, hence any approach that supports focussing on a likely set of candidates may save time and money. We use a non-stationary statistical analysis with spatially varying coefficients to identify ecotypes that indicate first regions of similarly adapted varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) in North America. For over 70,000 plot-level presence-absences, spatial differences in the survival response to climatic conditions are identified.

RESULTS

The spatially-variable coefficient model fits the data substantially better than a stationary, i.e. constant-effect analysis (as measured by AIC to account for differences in model complexity). Also, clustering the model terms identifies several potential ecotypes that could not be derived from clustering climatic conditions itself. Comparing these six identified ecotypes to known genetically diverging regions shows some congruence, as well as some mismatches. However, comparing ecotypes among each other, we find clear differences in their climate niches.

CONCLUSION

While our approach is data-demanding and computationally expensive, with the increasing availability of data on species distributions this may be a useful first screening step during the search for climate-change adapted varieties. With our unsupervised learning approach being explorative, finely resolved genotypic data would be helpful to improve its quantitative validation.

Variable intraspecific response to climate change in a medicinally important African tree species, Vachellia sieberiana (DC.) (paperbark thorn)

Climate change is predicted to disproportionately impact sub-Saharan Africa, with potential devastating consequences on plant populations. Climate change may, however, impact intraspecific taxa differently. The aim of the study was to determine the current distribution and impact of climate change on three varieties of Vachellia sieberiana, that is, var. sieberiana, var. villosa and var. woodii. Ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were built in "biomod2" using 66, 45, and 137 occurrence records for var. sieberiana, var. villosa, and var. woodii, respectively. The ensemble SDMs were projected to 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under three general circulation models (GCMs) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The three GCMs were the Canadian Earth System Model version 5, the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model version 6A Low Resolution, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6. The suitable habitat of var. sieberiana predominantly occurs in the Sudanian and Zambezian phytochoria while that of var. villosa largely occurs in the Sudanian phytochorion. The suitable habitat of var. woodii mainly occurs in the Zambezian phyotochorion. There is coexistence of var. villosa and var. sieberiana in the Sudanian phytochorion while var. sieberiana and var. woodii coexist in the Zambezian phytochorion. Under SSP2-4.5 in 2041-2060 and averaged across the three GCMs, the suitable habitat expanded by 33.8% and 119.7% for var. sieberiana and var. villosa, respectively. In contrast, the suitable habitat of var. woodii contracted by -8.4%. Similar trends were observed in 2041-2060 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (38.6%), var. villosa (139.0%), and var. woodii (-10.4%)], in 2081-2100 under SSP2-4.5 [var. sieberiana (4.6%), var. villosa (153.4%), and var. woodii (-14.4%)], and in 2081-2100 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (49.3%), var. villosa (233.4%), and var. woodii (-30.7%)]. Different responses to climate change call for unique management and conservation decisions for the varieties.

Variations in the morphological and chemical composition of the rhizomes of Polygonatum species based on a common garden experiment

Polygonatum species have great potential in fighting chronic and hidden hunger. In this study, five Polygonatum species collected from different populations were cultivated in a common garden for 4 years. The species mainly differed in yield, saponin and polysaccharide contents, stem diameter, leaf width, inflorescence length, and floret inflorescence length. P. cyrtonema (PC) provides high-quality yield when planted in Zhejiang, with output as high as 7.5 tons per hectare and a promising breeding potential. Moreover, stem diameter can be used as an indicator of the harvest in the screening of varieties. In addition, the formation of plant genetic traits from different provenances is affected by the climatic factors of the origin. Furthermore, near-infrared spectroscopy combined with chemometrics for polysaccharide and saponin quantitation provides a rapid assessment of PC quality. Our findings provide a scientific basis for the development and sustainable utilization of PC as a high-yielding and high-quality forest crop.

Assessing the current genetic structure of 21 remnant populations and predicting the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Phoebe sheareri in southern China

Phoebe sheareri is a valuable tree species known as "Golden Nanmu" and is one of the most important protected tree species in China. However, natural populations are decreasing because of climate change and anthropogenic factors. To evaluate the genetic diversity and structure of remnant populations and the impacts of climate change on the distribution of potential suitable habitats, we conducted a field investigation and sampled 21 P. sheareri natural populations to evaluate their genetic diversity and structure using simple sequence repeat (SSR) molecular markers. Then, we predicted the distribution of suitable P. sheareri habitats across China under future scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and periods (2050 and 2070) using multivariate modeling methods-the MaxEnt model. The results showed a medium level of genetic diversity and low inbreeding in the 21 P. sheareri natural populations, and genetic differentiation among populations was significant, with 21.2 % genetic variation among populations. The remnant populations of P. sheareri were grouped into four genetic clusters based on genetic structure; five environmental variables involving four temperature variables and precipitation seasonality (Bio12) might determine the distribution of P. sheareri populations. In the future, the suitable habitats of P. sheareri are manifested as northward migration, and the highly suitable habitats are expected to increase. Our results highlight the importance of conservation units in situ, giving priority to populations with higher genetic diversity (e.g., TMS, FJS, and THY populations); sampling strategies for ex situ conservation, breeding and reforestation should consider climate change, especially Bio1 (annual mean temperature) and Bio12 (annual precipitation). Overall, this study may provide useful genetic information for strategies for the protection, management, and utilization of P. sheareri.

Living with exotic annual grasses in the sagebrush ecosystem

Exotic annual grasses dominate millions of hectares and increase fire frequency in the sagebrush ecosystem of North America. This devastating invasion is so costly and challenging to revegetate with perennial vegetation that restoration efforts need to be prioritized and strategically implemented. Management needs to break the annual grass-fire cycle and prevent invasion of new areas, while research is needed to improve restoration success. Under current land management and climate regimes, extensive areas will remain annual grasslands, because of their expansiveness and the low probability of transition to perennial dominance. We propose referring to these communities as Intermountain West Annual Grasslands, recognizing that they are a stable state and require different management goals and objectives than perennial-dominated systems. We need to learn to live with annual grasslands, reducing their costs and increasing benefits derived from them, at the same time maintaining landscape-level plant diversity that could allow transition to perennial dominance under future scenarios. To accomplish this task, we propose a framework and research to improve our ability to live with exotic annual grasses in the sagebrush biome.

Genetic Diversity and Population Genetic Structure of Ancient Platycladus orientalis L. (Cupressaceae) in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River by Chloroplast Microsatellite Markers

Ancient trees are famous for their life spans of hundreds or even thousands of years. These trees are rare, a testament to history and are important for scientific research. Platycladus orientalis, with the longest life span and a beautiful trunk, has become the most widely planted tree species and is believed to be sacred in China. Extensive declines in habitat area and quality pose the greatest threats to the loss of genetic diversity of ancient P. orientalis trees in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Strengthening the protection of P. orientalis genetic resources is of great significance for the long-term development of reasonable conservation and breeding strategies. To better understand the genetic diversity and population structure of P. orientalis, we successfully analyzed four polymorphic chloroplast simple sequence repeat (cpSSR) loci and applied them to diversity and population structure analyses of 202 individuals from 13 populations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Based on the cpSSR data, 16 alleles were detected across 202 individuals, and a moderate level of genetic diversity was inferred from the genetic diversity parameters (H = 0.367 and AR = 1.964). The mean pairwise genetic differentiation coefficient (Fst) between populations was 0.153, indicating relatively high genetic population differentiations. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that only 8% of the variation occurred among populations. Structure analysis divided the 13 P. orientalis populations into two groups with no significant geographic population structure, which was consistent with the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA) and Mantel test results. These results may indicate that transplanting and cultivation by ancient human activities are the main factors responsible for the revealed pattern of genetic differentiation of ancient P. orientalis populations. Our research is of great significance for the future establishment of protection schemes and scientific breeding of P. orientalis.

Capturing response differences of species distribution to climate and human pressures by incorporating local adaptation: Implications for the conservation of a critically endangered species

Considering local adaptation has been increasingly involved in forecasting species distributions under climate change and the management of species conservation. Herein, we take the critically endangered Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus) that has both a low dispersal ability and distinct population divergence in different regions as an example. Basin-scale models that represent different populations in the Huanghe River Basin (HRB), the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), and the Pearl River Basin (PRB) were established using ensemble species distribution models. The species ranges under the future human population density (HPD) and climate change were predicted, and the range loss was evaluated for local basins in 2050 and 2070. Our results showed that the predominant factors affecting species distributions differed among basins, and the responses of the species occurrence to HPD and climate factors were distinctly different from northern to southern basins. Future HPD changes would be the most influential factor that engenders negative impacts on the species distribution in all three basins, especially in the HRB. Climate change will likely be less prominent in decreasing the species range, excluding in the YRB and PRB under the highest-emissions scenario in 2050. Overall, the high-emissions scenario would more significantly aggravate the negative impacts produced by HPD change in both 2050 and 2070, with maximum losses of species ranges in the HRB, YRB, and PRB of 83.4%, 60.0%, and 53.5%, respectively, under the scenarios of the combined impacts of HPD and climate changes. We proposed adapted conservation policies to effectively protect the habitat of this critically endangered animal in different basins based on the outcomes. Our research addresses the importance of incorporating local adaptation into species distribution modeling to inform conservation and management decisions.

Environmental Controls of Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in the Stem Radius of Platycladus orientalis in Northern China

Fine-resolution studies of stem radial variation over short timescales throughout the year can provide insight into intra-annual stem dynamics and improve our understanding of climate impacts on tree physiology and growth processes. Using data from high-resolution point dendrometers collected from Platycladus orientalis (Linn.) trees between September 2013 and December 2014, this study investigated the daily and seasonal patterns of stem radial variation in addition to the relationships between daily stem radial variation and environmental factors over the growing season. Two contrasting daily cycle patterns were observed for warm and cold seasons. A daily mean air temperature of 0 °C was a critical threshold that was related to seasonal shifts in stem diurnal cycle patterns, indicating that air temperature critically influences diurnal stem cycles. The annual variation in P. orientalis stem radius variation can be divided into four distinct periods including (1) spring rehydration, (2) the summer growing season, (3) autumn stagnation, and (4) winter contraction. These periods reflect seasonal changes in tree water status that are especially pronounced in spring and winter. During the growing season, the maximum daily shrinkage (MDS) of P. orientalis was positively correlated with air temperature (Ta) and negatively correlated with soil water content (SWC) and precipitation (P). The vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also exhibited a threshold-based control on MDS at values below or above 0.8 kPa. Daily radial changes (DRC) were negatively correlated with Ta and VPD but positively correlated with relative air humidity (RH) and P. These results suggest that the above environmental factors are associated with tree water status via their influence on moisture availability to trees, which in turn affects the metrics of daily stem variation including MDS and DRC.

Local Adaptation and Response of Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco Populations to Climate Change

Knowledge about the local adaptation and response of forest tree populations to the climate is important for assessing the impact of climate change and developing adaptive genetic resource management strategies. However, such information is not available for most plant species. Here, based on 69 provenances tested at 19 common garden experimental sites, we developed a universal response function (URF) for tree height at seven years of age for the important and wide-spread native Chinese tree species Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco. URF was recently used to predict the potential growth response of a population originating from any climate and growing in any climate conditions. The developed model integrated both genetic and environmental effects, and explained 55% of the total variation in tree height observed among provenances and test sites in China. We found that local provenances performed better than non-local counterparts in habitats located in central, eastern, and southwestern China, showing the evidence of local adaptation as compared to other regions. In contrast, non-local provenances outperformed local ones in peripheral areas in northern and northwestern China, suggesting an adaptational lag in these areas. Future projections suggest that the suitable habitat areas of P. orientalis would expand by 15%–39% and shift northward by 0.8–3 degrees in latitude; however, the projected tree height of this species would decline by 4%–8% if local provenances were used. If optimal provenances were used, tree height growth could be improved by 13%–15%, along with 59%–71% suitable habitat expansion. Thus, assisted migration with properly selected seed sources would be effective in avoiding maladaptation in new plantations under a changing climate for P. orientalis.

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change

Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.