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Perez-Guerra UH, Macedo R, Manrique YP, Condori EA, Gonzáles HI, Fernández E, Luque N, Pérez-Durand MG, García-Herreros M. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model for milk production forecasting in pasture-based dairy cows in the Andean highlands. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0288849. [PMID: 37972120 PMCID: PMC10653396 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Milk production in the Andean highlands is variable over space and time. This variability is related to fluctuating environmental factors such as rainfall season which directly influence the availability of livestock feeding resources. The main aim of this study was to develop a time-series model to forecast milk production in a mountainous geographical area by analysing the dynamics of milk records thorough the year. The study was carried out in the Andean highlands, using time-series models of monthly milk records collected routinely from dairy cows maintained in a controlled experimental farm over a 9-year period (2008-2016). Several statistical forecasting models were compared. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) were used as selection criteria to compare models. A relation between monthly milk records and the season of the year was modelled using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methods to explore temporal redundancy (trends and periodicity). According to white noise residual test (Q = 13.951 and p = 0.052), Akaike Information Criterion and MAE, MAPE, and RMSE values, the SARIMA (1, 0, 0) x (2, 0, 0)12 time-series model resulted slightly better forecasting model compared to others. In conclusion, time-series models were promising, simple and useful tools for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of milk production thorough the year in the Andean highlands. The forecasting potential of the different models were similar and they could be used indistinctly to forecast the milk production seasonal fluctuations. However, the SARIMA model performed the best good predictive capacity minimizing the prediction interval error. Thus, a useful effective strategy has been developed by using time-series models to monitor milk production and alleviate production drops due to seasonal factors in the Andean highlands.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uri H. Perez-Guerra
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Rassiel Macedo
- Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, Peru
| | - Yan P. Manrique
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Eloy A. Condori
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Henry I. Gonzáles
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Eliseo Fernández
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Natalio Luque
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Manuel G. Pérez-Durand
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Manuel García-Herreros
- Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária e Veterinária, I. P. (INIAV, I.P.), Santarém, Portugal
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Wang P, Shan N, Ali A, Sun J, Luo S, Xiao Y, Wang S, Hu R, Huang Y, Zhou Q. Comprehensive evaluation of functional components, biological activities, and minerals of yam species (Dioscorea polystachya and D. alata) from China. Lebensm Wiss Technol 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.lwt.2022.113964] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
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Escobar-Puentes AA, Palomo I, Rodríguez L, Fuentes E, Villegas-Ochoa MA, González-Aguilar GA, Olivas-Aguirre FJ, Wall-Medrano A. Sweet Potato (Ipomoea batatas L.) Phenotypes: From Agroindustry to Health Effects. Foods 2022; 11:foods11071058. [PMID: 35407143 PMCID: PMC8997864 DOI: 10.3390/foods11071058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Revised: 04/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/03/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Sweet potato (SP; Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam) is an edible tuber native to America and the sixth most important food crop worldwide. China leads its production in a global market of USD 45 trillion. SP domesticated varieties differ in specific phenotypic/genotypic traits, yet all of them are rich in sugars, slow digestible/resistant starch, vitamins, minerals, bioactive proteins and lipids, carotenoids, polyphenols, ascorbic acid, alkaloids, coumarins, and saponins, in a genotype-dependent manner. Individually or synergistically, SP’s phytochemicals help to prevent many illnesses, including certain types of cancers and cardiovascular disorders. These and other topics, including the production and market diversification of raw SP and its products, and SP’s starch as a functional ingredient, are briefly discussed in this review.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto A. Escobar-Puentes
- Biomedical Sciences Institute, Autonomous University of Ciudad Juárez, Anillo envolvente del Pronaf y Estocolmo s/n, Ciudad Juárez 32300, Chihuahua, Mexico; or
- Faculty of Medicine and Psychology, Autonomous University of Baja California, Tijuana 22427, Baja California, Mexico
| | - Iván Palomo
- Thrombosis Research Center, Department of Clinical Biochemistry and Immunohaematology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Talca, Talca 3460000, Chile; (I.P.); (L.R.); (E.F.)
| | - Lyanne Rodríguez
- Thrombosis Research Center, Department of Clinical Biochemistry and Immunohaematology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Talca, Talca 3460000, Chile; (I.P.); (L.R.); (E.F.)
| | - Eduardo Fuentes
- Thrombosis Research Center, Department of Clinical Biochemistry and Immunohaematology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Talca, Talca 3460000, Chile; (I.P.); (L.R.); (E.F.)
| | - Mónica A. Villegas-Ochoa
- Center for Research on Food and Development, Carretera al ejido la Victoria Km 0.6, Hermosillo 83304, Sonora, Mexico; (M.A.V.-O.); (G.A.G.-A.)
| | - Gustavo A. González-Aguilar
- Center for Research on Food and Development, Carretera al ejido la Victoria Km 0.6, Hermosillo 83304, Sonora, Mexico; (M.A.V.-O.); (G.A.G.-A.)
| | - Francisco J. Olivas-Aguirre
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Sonora (Campus Cajeme), Blvd. Bordo Nuevo s/n, 7 Ejido Providencia, Cd. Obregón 85199, Sonora, Mexico
- Correspondence: (F.J.O.-A.); (A.W.-M.); Tel.: +52-(656)-3058685 (F.J.O.-A.); +52-(656)-3052344 (A.W.-M.)
| | - Abraham Wall-Medrano
- Biomedical Sciences Institute, Autonomous University of Ciudad Juárez, Anillo envolvente del Pronaf y Estocolmo s/n, Ciudad Juárez 32300, Chihuahua, Mexico; or
- Correspondence: (F.J.O.-A.); (A.W.-M.); Tel.: +52-(656)-3058685 (F.J.O.-A.); +52-(656)-3052344 (A.W.-M.)
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Strack K, Dini C, García M, Viña S. Effect of thermal and ultrasonic treatments on technological and physicochemical characteristics of fibrous residues from ahipa and cassava starch extraction. FUTURE FOODS 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.fufo.2021.100057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022] Open
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Luziatelli G, Sørensen M, Jacobsen SE. Current uses of Andean Roots and Tuber Crops in South American gourmet restaurants. Int J Gastron Food Sci 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ijgfs.2020.100270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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