Demographic Scenarios of Future Environmental Footprints of Healthy Diets in China

Food Production and Consumption in Ordos of Inner Mongolia

Ordos is an ecological fragile area in the upstream and midstream of the Yellow River and a component of the ecological security barrier on the northern frontier of China. With population growth in recent years, the contradiction between human beings and land resources has become increasingly prominent, leading to increased food security risks. Since 2000, the local government has implemented a series of ecological projects to guide farmers and herdsmen to transform from extensive production to intensive production, which has optimized the pattern of food production and consumption. It is necessary to study the balance between food supply and demand to evaluate food self-sufficiency. Here, we used the panel data from 2000 to 2020 collected based on random sampling surveys to reveal the characteristics of food production and consumption, the changes in food self-sufficiency rate and the dependence of food consumption on local production in Ordos. The results showed that food production and consumption dominated by grains have been increasing. The residents' diets were characterized by excessive consumption of grains and meat, and insufficient consumption of vegetables, fruits, and dairy foods. On the whole, the locality has achieved self-sufficiency, because the food supply exceeded the demand during the two decades. However, the self-sufficiency of different food types varied greatly, as some foods, such as wheat, rice, pork, poultry, and eggs, have not been self-sufficient. Due to the increased and diversified food demand of residents, food consumption became less dependent on local production and more dependent on food imported from the central and eastern China, which threatened local food security. The study can provide a scientific basis for decision-makers for the structural adjustment of agricultural and animal husbandry and the structural adjustment of food consumption, to ensure food security and sustainable utilization of land resources.

Nutrition and its footprints: Using environmental indicators to assess the nexus between sustainability and food

Current food systems are associated with the unsustainable use of natural resources; therefore, rethinking current models is urgent and is part of a global agenda to reach sustainable development. Sustainable diets encompass health, society, economy, culture as well as the environment, in addition to considering all the stages that make up the food production chain. This study aimed to perform a review on the importance of using environmental footprints (EnF) as a way of assessing the environmental impacts of food systems. The most used EnF to assess impacts related to the food system was the carbon footprint, followed by the water footprint, and the land use footprint. These EnF usually measured the impacts mainly of the current diet and theoretical diets. Animal-source foods were the ones that most contribute to the environmental impact, with incentives to reduce consumption. However, changing dietary patterns should not be restricted to changing behavior only, but should also involve all stakeholders in the functioning of food systems. We conclude that EnF are excellent tools to evaluate and guide the adoption of more sustainable diets, and can be applied in different contexts of food systems, such as food consumption analysis, menu analysis, food waste, and inclusion of EnF information on food labels.

The Role of Income and Food Prices in Diet-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China: A Path towards a Sustainable Diet

China has undergone rapid economic growth and diet transition over the past decades, along with environmental challenges. To help to achieve carbon peaking by 2030, this study investigates the time-variable diet-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from 2000 to 2020 and examines the responses of food demands and diet-related GHGEs to an increase in per capita income and animal-based food prices. Based on the Almost Ideal Demand System model, addressing the problem of the endogeneity of food expenditure, we estimate the demand elasticities for six food groups and analyze their changing trends with time. Then, we perform two projections. One is to project the impacts of income growth on food demands and diet-related GHGEs, taking into consideration dynamic income elasticities as per capita income increases; the other is to project the effects of an increase in prices of different animal-based foods on food demands and diet-related GHGEs. Our results reveal that diet-related agricultural GHGEs show a continued increase in the short term, but the increased effect tends to decline gradually. The dominant driver of increased diet-related GHGEs is the increased consumption of beef, mutton, and pork. However, an increase in prices of beef and mutton; pork; and poultry and eggs can reduce diet-related GHGEs, while a decrease in the prices of aquatic products can also deliver a significant decrease in GHGEs. The results imply that policymakers should take an interest in the environmental impacts of diet transition and promote a more sustainable diet structure.

Food Nitrogen Footprint of the Indian Subcontinent Toward 2050

Substantial loss of nitrogen (N) in reactive forms (nitrogen species except for N₂) induced by agro–food system is a cause of the environmental degradation and harms human health. The main factors influencing the food N footprint of the Indian Subcontinent (ISC) are the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of crop cultivation and religious dietary cultures. In this study, we assess the food N footprint of the ISC and establish reduction scenarios toward 2050. We used a religion-sensitive N-Calculator method and food consumption data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to estimate the food N footprint of the ISC of different religious communities. We developed four reduction scenarios as follows: The business-as-usual scenario; a 30% increase in the crop cultivation NUE; altered protein supplies to the healthy EAT–Lancet reference diet considering religious food taboos; and an integrated approach with a 30% increase in the NUE increase and the altered diet. We used the long short-term memory recurrent neural network approach to predict the future. The study revealed that the average food N footprint per-capita per-year increased from 7.94 kg-N in the 1960s to 8.43 kg-N in the early 2010s, and the crop cultivation NUE was reduced to less than 40%. Buddhists had the lowest footprint over the period. An increase in the NUE of the crop cultivation and an altered diet results in a 13% reduction in the N footprint compared to the business-as-usual scenario. We conclude that improved crop cultivation NUEs and an altered religion-specific healthy diet would reduce the N footprint.