Flood Mapping from Dam Break Due to Peak Inflow: A Coupled Rainfall–Runoff and Hydraulic Models Approach

Novel approach to the derivation of dam breach parameters in 2D hydrodynamic modeling of earthquake induced dam failures

Current methods of dam breach analyses adopt a deterministic approach. Applying these methods to Concrete Faced Rockfill Dams (CFRD) is fraught with huge levels of uncertainty, especially in the context of natural hazards. The frequency and magnitude of rainfall and earthquakes are higher in today's world. In the literature, the complete collapse of dams is modelled on dam breach parameters that define the dam break outflow but are not related to the return periods of natural hazards. As more new dams are constructed to control the floods in intra-plate seismic regions, this study presents a novel approach to the derivation of generalized dam break parameters for CFRD based on the structural analysis of Finite Element Model (FEM) simulations for peak ground accelerations corresponding to 475 and 2475 year return periods. Furthermore, the occurrence of rainfall and earthquake for different return periods are modelled using 2D hydrodynamic simulations. Results show the significance of generalized dam breach parameters for planning and managing CFRDs during earthquakes. The study emphasizes the utilization of structural analysis outputs for the hydraulic modeling of dam breaks, which will result in more specific and accurate dam break parameters. Additionally, the study has shown that the flood risk and the severity will increase with the intensity of earthquake and rainfall magnitudes. Disaster mitigation strategies can be optimized by considering the integrated occurrence of rainfall and earthquakes based on the probability of occurrence, demonstrated using a case-study dam. Another significant outcome of the study is the effect of soil saturation condition during a dam break, which reveals that areas within 40 km of the dam breach location might be worst affected.

Future projections of worst floods and dam break analysis in Mahanadi River Basin under CMIP6 climate change scenarios

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the hydrological effects and flood risks of the Hirakud Reservoir, considering different CMIP6 climate change scenarios. Using the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models, the study evaluates future flow patterns and the potential repercussions of dam breaches. The following summary of the work: firstly, the HEC-HMS model is calibrated and validated using daily stage-discharge observations from the Basantpur station. With coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.764 and 0.858 for calibration and validation, respectively, the model demonstrates satisfactory performance. Secondly, The HEC-HMS model predicts future flow for the Hirakud Reservoir under three climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and for three future periods (near future, mid future and far future). Thirdly, by analyzing time-series hydrographs, the study identifies peak flooding events. In addition, the HEC-RAS model is used to assess the effects of dam breaches. Downstream of the Hirakud Dam, the analysis highlights potential inundation areas and depth variations. The study determines the following inundation areas for the worst flood scenarios: 3651.52 km2, 2931.46 km2 and 4207.6 km2 for the near-future, mid-future and far-future periods, respectively. In addition, the utmost flood depths for these scenarios are determined to be 31 m, 29 m and 39 m for the respective future periods. The study area identifies 105 vulnerable villages and several towns. This study emphasizes the importance of contemplating climate change scenarios and implementing proactive measures to mitigate the peak flooding events in the Hirakud reservoir region.

Forensic Hydrology: A Complete Reconstruction of an Extreme Flood Event in Data-Scarce Area

On 18 September 2020, the Karditsa prefecture of Thessaly region (Greece) experienced a catastrophic flood as a consequence of the IANOS hurricane. This intense phenomenon was characterized by rainfall records ranging from 220 mm up to 530 mm, in a time interval of 15 h. Extended public infrastructure was damaged and thousands of houses and commercial properties were flooded, while four casualties were recorded. The aim of this study was to provide forensic research on a reconstruction of the flood event in the vicinity of Karditsa city. First, we performed a statistical analysis of the rainfall. Then, we used two numerical models and observed data, either captured by satellites or mined from social media, in order to simulate the event a posteriori. Specifically, a rainfall–runoff CN-unit hydrograph model was combined with a hydrodynamic model based on 2D-shallow water equations model, through the coupling of the hydrological software HEC-HMS with the hydrodynamic software HEC-RAS. Regarding the observed data, the limited available gauged records led us to use a wide spectrum of remote sensing datasets associated with rainfall, such as NASA GPM–IMREG, and numerous videos posted on social media, such as Facebook, in order to validate the extent of the flood. The overall assessment proved that the exceedance probability of the IANOS flooding event ranged from 1:400 years in the low-lying catchments, to 1:1000 years in the upstream mountainous catchments. Moreover, a good performance for the simulated flooding extent was achieved using the numerical models and by comparing their output with the remote sensing footage provided by SENTINEL satellites images, along with the georeferenced videos posted on social media.

Flood Early Warning and Risk Modelling

The evolution of mankind during the last 2 centuries has generated an ever growing thrive for increased production, for the need to create novel means to generate energy and for society to change into a more consumerism-oriented version [...]