Impact of Climate Change on the Streamflow Modulated by Changes in Precipitation and Temperature in the North Latitude Watershed of Nepal

Response of Domestic Water in Beijing to Climate Change

Beijing, a megacity in northern China, has been long facing the challenge of water scarcity, and the problem of domestic water scarcity has been becoming more serious in recent years due to climate change and global warming. To cope with the adverse effects of climate change, it is urgent to build a prediction model for water consumption in Beijing under the background of climate change. Here, a climate domestic water use model was established based on the historical meteorological data and domestic water use data, and the future domestic water demand in Beijing and the response of domestic water use to climate change were projected. The results showed that the climatic water consumption in Beijing will increase with climate warming by 177.23 million m3/°C, and the per capita annual water consumption will increase by 8.1 m3/°C. Combined with the CMIP6 multi-model climate change scenario data, the climate domestic water consumption in Beijing in 2035 under the four scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 will be 169 million m3, 189 million m3, 208 million m3, and 235 million m3 respectively; by 2050, the climate domestic water consumption in Beijing will reach 338 million m3, 382 million m3, 395 million m3, and 398 million m3, respectively. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, if all the increased climate domestic water consumptions are supplemented by groundwater, compared with 2019, the groundwater depth will decrease by 0.18 m, 0.22 m, 0.27 m, and 0.32 m in 2035, respectively, and the area of funnel area will increase by 6.84 km2, 8.48 km2, 10.11 km2, 12.34 km2 respectively. Compared with 2035, the groundwater depth in 2050 will decrease by 0.37 m, 0.43 m, 0.41 m and 0.36 m, respectively, the area of funnel area will increase by 14.13 km2, 16.21 km2, 15.61 km2, and 13.68 km2, respectively. If the increased climatic water consumption in Beijing is supplemented by external water transfer, the cost of external water transfer in 2035 will increase by CNY 391 million, CNY 485 million, CNY 578 million, and CNY 706 million, respectively, compared with that in 2019 under the four scenarios. Compared with 2035, the cost of external water transfer in 2050 will increase by CNY 808 million, CNY 927 million, CNY 893 million, and CNY 783 million, respectively.

Evaluation of Future Streamflow in the Upper Part of the Nilwala River Basin (Sri Lanka) under Climate Change

Climate change is a serious and complex crisis that impacts humankind in different ways. It affects the availability of water resources, especially in the tropical regions of South Asia to a greater extent. However, the impact of climate change on water resources in Sri Lanka has been the least explored. Noteworthy, this is the first study in Sri Lanka that attempts to evaluate the impact of climate change in streamflow in a watershed located in the southern coastal belt of the island. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the climate change impact on streamflow of the Upper Nilwala River Basin (UNRB), Sri Lanka. In this study, the bias-corrected rainfall data from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were fed into the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model to obtain future streamflow. Bias correction of future rainfall data in the Nilwala River Basin (NRB) was conducted using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM). Future precipitation was projected under three timelines: 2020s (2021–2047), 2050s (2048–2073), and 2080s (2074–2099) and was compared against the baseline period from 1980 to 2020. The ensemble mean annual precipitation in the NRB is expected to rise by 3.63%, 16.49%, and 12.82% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, and 4.26%, 8.94%, and 18.04% under RCP 8.5 emission scenario during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The future annual streamflow of the UNRB is projected to increase by 59.30% and 65.79% under the ensemble RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, when compared to the baseline scenario. In addition, the seasonal flows are also expected to increase for both RCPs for all seasons with an exception during the southwest monsoon season in the 2015–2042 period under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In general, the results of the present study demonstrate that climate and streamflow of the NRB are expected to experience changes when compared to current climatic conditions. The results of the present study will be of major importance for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset the negative impacts of future changes in climate.

Water Flux Prediction in Direct Contact Membrane Distillation Subject to Inorganic Fouling

Freshwater is a limited resource, which has driven the development of new purification and water-reuse technologies. One promising technology for water treatment is membrane distillation (MD). One of the main problems of MD, and of many desalination technologies, is membrane fouling, which reduces the performance of the membrane. This work presents a mathematical model that aims to predict distillate fluxes in direct-contact MD when fouling occurs as salts are deposited onto the membrane surface, forming an inorganic fouling layer. The mathematical model uses a heat- and mass-transfer formulation for prediction of the distillate flux under steady state conditions, and it is combined with the cake-filtration theory to represent the distillate fluxes after the onset of membrane fouling. Model results agree well with experimental observation of distillate fluxes, both before (~12–14 kg m⁻² h⁻¹) and after the onset of membrane fouling, with root-mean-square errors smaller than 1.4 kg m⁻² h⁻¹ in all the experiments. These results suggest that the cake-filtration theory can be used to represent water flux decline in MD membranes prone to inorganic fouling. From our experiments and from the modelling exercise, we found that the onset of membrane failure was relatively constant; the precipitation reaction constant is conditioned by the physicochemical interaction between the feed solution and the membrane; and the rate of flux decline after membrane fouling depends on flow conditions as well as on the precipitation compound. However, the proposed model has limitations that must be addressed in future investigations to validate it under a wider range of operating conditions, for membranes composed by other materials and with different feed solutions to address organic, biological, and/or colloidal fouling, which typically occur under real conditions.