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Sadoine ML, Zinszer K, Liu Y, Gachon P, Fournier M, Dueymes G, Dorsey G, Llerena A, Namuganga JF, Nasri B, Smargiassi A. Predicting malaria risk considering vector control interventions under climate change scenarios. Sci Rep 2024; 14:2430. [PMID: 38286803 PMCID: PMC10824718 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-52724-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 01/31/2024] Open
Abstract
Many studies have projected malaria risks with climate change scenarios by modelling one or two environmental variables and without the consideration of malaria control interventions. We aimed to predict the risk of malaria with climate change considering the influence of rainfall, humidity, temperatures, vegetation, and vector control interventions (indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN)). We used negative binomial models based on weekly malaria data from six facility-based surveillance sites in Uganda from 2010-2018, to estimate associations between malaria, environmental variables and interventions, accounting for the non-linearity of environmental variables. Associations were applied to future climate scenarios to predict malaria distribution using an ensemble of Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Predictions including interaction effects between environmental variables and interventions were also explored. The results showed upward trends in the annual malaria cases by 25% to 30% by 2050s in the absence of intervention but there was great variability in the predictions (historical vs RCP 4.5 medians [Min-Max]: 16,785 [9,902-74,382] vs 21,289 [11,796-70,606]). The combination of IRS and LLIN, IRS alone, and LLIN alone would contribute to reducing the malaria burden by 76%, 63% and 35% respectively. Similar conclusions were drawn from the predictions of the models with and without interactions between environmental factors and interventions, suggesting that the interactions have no added value for the predictions. The results highlight the need for maintaining vector control interventions for malaria prevention and control in the context of climate change given the potential public health and economic implications of increasing malaria in Uganda.
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Affiliation(s)
- Margaux L Sadoine
- School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
- Center for Public Health Research, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
| | - Kate Zinszer
- School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Center for Public Health Research, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Ying Liu
- School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Center for Public Health Research, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Philippe Gachon
- ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Michel Fournier
- Department of Public Health, Montreal Regional, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Guillaume Dueymes
- ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Grant Dorsey
- University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA
| | - Ana Llerena
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Bouchra Nasri
- School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Center for Public Health Research, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Audrey Smargiassi
- School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Center for Public Health Research, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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Baharom M, Soffian SSS, Peng CS, Baharudin MH, Mirza U, Madrim MF, Jeffree MS, Rahim SSSA, Hassan MR. Projecting Malaria Incidence Based on Climate Change Modeling Approach: A Systematic Review. Open Access Maced J Med Sci 2022. [DOI: 10.3889/oamjms.2022.10141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Climate change will affect the transmission of malaria by shifting the geographical space of the vector.
AIM: The review aims to examine the climate change modeling approach and climatic variables used for malaria projection.
METHODS: Articles were systematically searched from four databases, Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and SAGE. The PICO concept was used for formulation search and PRISMA approach to identify the final articles.
RESULTS: A total of 27 articles were retrieved and reviewed. There were six climate factors identified in this review: Temperature, rainfall/precipitation, humidity, wind, solar radiation, and climate change scenarios. Modeling approaches used to project future malarial trend includes mathematical and computational approach.
CONCLUSION: This review provides robust evidence of an association between the impact of climate change and malaria incidence. Prediction on seasonal patterns would be useful for malaria surveillance in public health prevention and mitigation strategies.
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Baharom M, Ahmad N, Hod R, Arsad FS, Tangang F. The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Communicable Disease Incidence and Its Projection: A Systematic Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph182111117. [PMID: 34769638 PMCID: PMC8583681 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182111117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2021] [Revised: 10/17/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Background: Climate change poses a real challenge and has contributed to causing the emergence and re-emergence of many communicable diseases of public health importance. Here, we reviewed scientific studies on the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of dengue, malaria, cholera, and leptospirosis, and synthesized the key findings on communicable disease projection in the event of global warming. Method: This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 flow checklist. Four databases (Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, EBSCOhost) were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2020. The eligible articles were evaluated using a modified scale of a checklist designed for assessing the quality of ecological studies. Results: A total of 38 studies were included in the review. Precipitation and temperature were most frequently associated with the selected climate-sensitive communicable diseases. A climate change scenario simulation projected that dengue, malaria, and cholera incidence would increase based on regional climate responses. Conclusion: Precipitation and temperature are important meteorological factors that influence the incidence of climate-sensitive communicable diseases. Future studies need to consider more determinants affecting precipitation and temperature fluctuations for better simulation and prediction of the incidence of climate-sensitive communicable diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mazni Baharom
- Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia; (M.B.); (R.H.); (F.S.A.)
| | - Norfazilah Ahmad
- Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia; (M.B.); (R.H.); (F.S.A.)
- Correspondence:
| | - Rozita Hod
- Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia; (M.B.); (R.H.); (F.S.A.)
| | - Fadly Syah Arsad
- Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia; (M.B.); (R.H.); (F.S.A.)
| | - Fredolin Tangang
- Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi 43600, Malaysia;
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Chae SM, Kim D. Research Trends in Agenda-setting for Climate Change Adaptation Policy in the Public Health Sector in Korea. J Prev Med Public Health 2020; 53:3-14. [PMID: 32023669 PMCID: PMC7002993 DOI: 10.3961/jpmph.19.326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2019] [Accepted: 01/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Many studies have been conducted to assess the health effects of climate change in Korea. However, there has been a lack of consideration regarding how the results of these studies can be applied to relevant policies. The current study aims to examine research trends at the agenda-setting stage and to review future ways in which health-related adaptation to climate change can be addressed within national public health policy. A systematic review of previous studies of the health effects of climate change in Korea was conducted. Many studies have evaluated the effect of ambient temperature on health. A large number of studies have examined the effects on deaths and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, but a limitation of these studies is that it is difficult to apply their findings to climate change adaptation policy in the health sector. Many infectious disease studies were also identified, but these mainly focused on malaria. Regarding climate change-related factors other than ambient temperature, studies of the health effects of these factors (with the exception of air pollution) are limited. In Korea, it can be concluded that studies conducted as part of the agenda-setting stage are insufficient, both because studies on the health effects of climate change have not ventured beyond defining the problem and because health adaptation to climate change has not been set as an important agenda item. In the future, the sharing and development of relevant databases is necessary. In addition, the priority of agenda items should be determined as part of a government initiative.
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Affiliation(s)
- Su-Mi Chae
- Center for Research on Future Disease Response, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, Sejong, Korea
| | - Daeeun Kim
- Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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Cella W, Baia-da-Silva DC, Melo GCD, Tadei WP, Sampaio VDS, Pimenta P, Lacerda MVG, Monteiro WM. Do climate changes alter the distribution and transmission of malaria? Evidence assessment and recommendations for future studies. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2019; 52:e20190308. [PMID: 31800921 DOI: 10.1590/0037-8682-0308-2019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2019] [Accepted: 11/14/2019] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Malaria, a mosquito-borne infectious disease, is considered a significant global health burden. Climate changes or different weather conditions may impact infectious diseases, specifically those transmitted by insect vectors and contaminated water. Based on the current predictions for climate change associated with the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and the increase in atmospheric temperature, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that in 2050, malaria may threaten some previously unexposed areas worldwide and cause a 50% higher probability of malaria cases. Climate-based distribution models of malaria depict an increase in the geographic distribution of the disease as global environmental temperatures and conditions worsen. Researchers have studied the influence of changes in climate on the prevalence of malaria using different mathematical models that consider different variables and predict the conditions for malaria distribution. In this context, we conducted a mini-review to elucidate the important aspects described in the literature on the influence of climate change in the distribution and transmission of malaria. It is important to develop possible risk management strategies and enhance the surveillance system enhanced even in currently malaria-free areas predicted to experience malaria in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wilsandrei Cella
- Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Centro de Estudos Superiores de Tefé, Tefé, AM, Brasil.,Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Manaus, AM, Brasil
| | - Djane Clarys Baia-da-Silva
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Manaus, AM, Brasil
| | - Gisely Cardoso de Melo
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Manaus, AM, Brasil
| | | | - Vanderson de Souza Sampaio
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde, Manaus, AM, Brasil
| | - Paulo Pimenta
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Pesquisas René Rachou, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil
| | - Marcus Vinicius Guimarães Lacerda
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Pesquisas Leônidas e Maria Deane, Manaus, AM, Brasil
| | - Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil.,Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Manaus, AM, Brasil
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