Comparison of Highly Resolved Model-Based Exposure Metrics for Traffic-Related Air Pollutants to Support Environmental Health Studies

Assessment of mobile source air toxics in an Environmental Justice Denver community adjacent to a freeway

Air pollutant concentrations are often higher near major roadways than in the surrounding environments owing to emissions from on-road mobile sources. In this study, we quantified the gradient in black carbon (BC) and air toxics concentrations from the I-70 freeway in the Elyria-Swansea environmental justice neighborhood in Denver, Colorado, during three measurement campaigns in 2017-2018. The average hourly upwind-downwind gradient of BC concentrations from the roadway was 500-800 ng/m³, equal to an increment of approximately 30-80% above local background levels within 180 m of the freeway. When integrated over all wind directions, the gradients were smaller, approximately 150-300 ng/m³ (~11-18%) over the course of nearly four months of measurements. No statistically significant gradient in air toxics (e.g., benzene, formaldehyde, etc.) was found, likely because the uncertainties in the mean concentrations were larger than the magnitude of the gradient (<25%). This finding is in contrast to some earlier studies in which small gradients of benzene and other VOCs were found. We estimate that sample sizes of at least 100 individual measurements would have been required to estimate mean concentrations with sufficient certainty to quantify gradients on the order of ±10% uncertainty. These gradient estimates are smaller than those found in previous studies over the past two decades; more stringent emissions standards, the local fleet age distribution, and/or the steady turnover of the vehicle fleet may be reducing the overall impact of roadway emissions on near-road communities. Implications: Gradients of near-road pollution may be declining in the near-road environment as tailpipe emissions from the vehicle fleet continue to decrease. Near-road concentration gradients of mobile source air toxics, including benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and ethylbenzene, will require higher sample sizes to quantify as emissions continue to decline.

Estimating exposure to fine particulate matter emissions from vehicle traffic: Exposure misclassification and daily activity patterns in a large, sprawling region

Vehicle traffic is responsible for a significant portion of toxic air pollution in urban areas that has been linked to a wide range of adverse health outcomes. Most vehicle air quality analyses used for transportation planning and health effect studies estimate exposure from the measured or modeled concentration of an air pollutant at a person's home. This study evaluates exposure to fine particulate matter from vehicle traffic and the magnitude and cause of exposure misclassification that result from not accounting for population mobility during the day in a large, sprawling region. We develop a dynamic exposure model by integrating activity-based travel demand, vehicle emission, and air dispersion models to evaluate the magnitude, components and spatial patterns of vehicle exposure misclassification in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area. Overall, we find that population exposure estimates increase by 51% when population mobility is accounted for. Errors are much larger in suburban and rural areas where exposure is underestimated while exposure may be overestimated near high volume roadways and in the urban core. Exposure while at work and traveling account for much of the error. We find much larger errors than prior studies, all of which have focused on more compact urban regions. Since many people spend a large part of their day away from their homes and vehicle emissions are known to create "hotspots" along roadways, home-based exposure is unlikely to be a robust estimator of a person's actual exposure. Accounting for population mobility in vehicle emission exposure studies may reveal more effective mitigation strategies, important differences in exposure between population groups with different travel patterns, and reduce exposure misclassification in health studies.

Enhancing Models and Measurements of Traffic-Related Air Pollutants for Health Studies Using Dispersion Modeling and Bayesian Data Fusion

INTRODUCTION

The adverse health effects associated with exposure to traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) remain a key public health issue. Often, exposure assessments have not represented the small-scale variation and elevated concentrations found near major roads and in urban settings. This research explores approaches aimed at improving exposure estimates of TRAPs that can reduce exposure measurement error when used in health studies. We consider dispersion models designed specifically for the near-road environment, as well as spatiotemporal and data fusion models. These approaches are implemented and evaluated utilizing data collected in recent modeling, monitoring, and epidemiological studies conducted in Detroit, Michigan.

APPROACH

Dispersion models, which estimate near-road pollutant concentrations and individual exposures based on first principles - and in particular, high fidelity models - can provide great flexibility and theoretical strength. They can represent the spatial variability of TRAP concentrations at locations not measured by conventional and spatially sparse air quality monitoring networks. A number of enhancements to dispersion modeling and mobile on-road emissions inventories were considered, including the representation of link-based road networks and updated estimates of temporal allocation of traffic activity, emission factors, and meteorological inputs. The recently developed Research LINE-source model (RLINE), a Gaussian line-source dispersion model specifically designed for the near-road environment, was used in an operational evaluation that compared predicted concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) with observed concentrations at air quality monitoring stations located near high-traffic roads. Spatiotemporal and data fusion models provided additional and complementary approaches for estimating TRAP exposures. We formulated both nonstationary universal kriging models that exploit the spatial correlation in the monitoring data, and data fusion models that leverage the information contained in both the monitoring data and the output of numerical models, specifically RLINE. These models were evaluated using observations of nitric oxide (NO), NOx, black carbon (BC), and PM2.5 monitored along transects crossing major roads in Detroit. We also examined model assumptions, including the appropriateness of the covariance functions, errors in RLINE outputs, and the effects of jointly modeling two pollutants and using an updated emission inventory.

RESULTS

For CO and NOx, dispersion model performance was best when monitoring sites were close to major roads, during downwind conditions, during weekdays, and during certain seasons. The ability to discern local and particularly the traffic-related portion of PM2.5 was limited, a result of high background levels, the sparseness of the monitoring network, and large uncertainties for certain sources (e.g., area, fugitive) and some processes (e.g., formation of secondary aerosols). Sensitivity analyses of alternative meteorological inputs and updated emission factors showed some performance gain when using local (on-site) meteorological data and updated inventories. Overall, the operational evaluation suggested RLINE's usefulness for estimating spatially and temporally resolved exposure estimates. The application of the universal kriging models confirmed that wind speed and direction are important drivers of nonstationarity in pollutant concentrations, and that these models can predict exposure estimates that have lower prediction errors than do stationary model counterparts. The application of the Bayesian data fusion models suggested that the RLINE output had a spatially varying additive bias for NOx and PM2.5 and provided little additional information for NOx, besides what is already contained in traffic and geographical information system (GIS) covariates, but had improved estimates of PM2.5 concentrations. Results of the nonstationary Bayesian data fusion model that used RLINE output across a field spanning the measurement sites were similar to a regression-based Bayesian data fusion approach that used only RLINE output at the monitoring locations, with the latter being computationally less burdensome. Using the regression-based Bayesian data fusion model, we found that RLINE with the updated emission inventory provided results that were more useful for estimating NOx concentration at unmonitored sites, but the updated emission inventory did not improve predictions of PM2.5 concentrations. Joint modeling of NOx and PM2.5 was not useful, a result of differences in RLINE's utility in predicting PM2.5 and NOx - useful for the former, but not for the latter - and differences in the spatial dependence structures of the two pollutants. Overall, information provided by RLINE was shown to have the potential to improve spatiotemporal estimates of TRAP concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

The study results should be interpreted and generalized cautiously given the limitations of the data used. Similar analyses in other settings are recommended for confirming and extending our findings. Still, the study highlights considerations that are relevant for exposure estimates used in health studies. The ability of a dispersion model to accurately reproduce and predict a pollutant depends on the pollutant as well as on spatial and temporal factors, such as the distance and direction from the road, time-of-day, and day-of-week. The nature and source of exposure measurement errors should be taken into consideration, particularly in health studies that take advantage of time- activity information that describes where and when individuals are exposed to pollution. Efforts to refine model inputs and improve model performance can be helpful; meteorological inputs may be the most critical. For both dispersion and spatiotemporal statistical models, sufficient and high-quality monitoring data are essential for developing and evaluating these models. Our analyses using Bayesian data fusion models confirm the presence of spatially varying errors in dispersion model outputs and allow quantification of both the magnitude and the spatial nature of these errors. This valuable information can be leveraged in health studies examining air pollution exposure as well as in studies informing regulatory responses.

Finely Resolved On-Road PM2.5 and Estimated Premature Mortality in Central North Carolina

To quantify the on-road PM_2.5 -related premature mortality at a national scale, previous approaches to estimate concentrations at a 12-km × 12-km or larger grid cell resolution may not fully characterize concentration hotspots that occur near roadways and thus the areas of highest risk. Spatially resolved concentration estimates from on-road emissions to capture these hotspots may improve characterization of the associated risk, but are rarely used for estimating premature mortality. In this study, we compared the on-road PM_2.5 -related premature mortality in central North Carolina with two different concentration estimation approaches-(i) using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to model concentration at a coarser resolution of a 36-km × 36-km grid resolution, and (ii) using a hybrid of a Gaussian dispersion model, CMAQ, and a space-time interpolation technique to provide annual average PM_2.5 concentrations at a Census-block level (∼105,000 Census blocks). The hybrid modeling approach estimated 24% more on-road PM_2.5 -related premature mortality than CMAQ. The major difference is from the primary on-road PM_2.5 where the hybrid approach estimated 2.5 times more primary on-road PM_2.5 -related premature mortality than CMAQ due to predicted exposure hotspots near roadways that coincide with high population areas. The results show that 72% of primary on-road PM_2.5 premature mortality occurs within 1,000 m from roadways where 50% of the total population resides, highlighting the importance to characterize near-road primary PM_2.5 and suggesting that previous studies may have underestimated premature mortality due to PM_2.5 from traffic-related emissions.