Mitigation Policy Acceptance Model: An Analysis of Individual Decision Making Process toward Residential Seismic Strengthening

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shigo Kas Hydro-Power Project (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan)

In this paper, a seismic hazard assessment (SHA) of the Shigo Kas hydropower project has been performed by deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The previously developed MATLAB-based code has been used for deterministic SHA, incorporating local site effects through deep soil analysis. On the other hand, for probabilistic SHA, CRISIS 2007 has been used through diffuse areal source zones. The latest updated earthquake instrumental and historical catalogs have been developed. Based on the recommendations of the International Commission on Large Dams, peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for the maximum credible earthquake (MCE), safety evaluation earthquake (SEE), design basis earthquake (DBE) and operating basis earthquake (OBE) have been assessed, which are 0.50 g, 0.68 g, 0.35 g and 0.24 g, respectively, at the intake location, and 0.50 g, 0.61 g, 0.30 g and 0.22 g, respectively, at the powerhouse location. Hazard maps have been developed for scenario-based earthquakes (MCE) and for the peak ground acceleration of 145-, 475- and 2500-year return periods. The de-aggregation process has evaluated the combined effects of magnitude and distance. At a distance of 30 to 70 km from the earthquake source, earthquakes of magnitude 5 Mw to 5.6 Mw and 5.9 Mw to 6.5 Mw are more hazardous for the current project.

An Analysis of Rural Households' Earthquake-Resistant Construction Behavior: Evidence from Pingliang and Yuxi, China

Due to the lack of earthquake-resistant rural houses, small and medium earthquakes caused massive casualties in rural China. In 2004, China began implementing the Earthquake Rural Housing Safety Project Policy (ERHSPP) to reduce earthquake losses, mainly promoting the adoption of earthquake-resistant structures in rural residents’ self-built houses through subsidies, training of construction craftsmen, and provision of earthquake-resistant housing drawings. We conducted a field survey, collecting 1169 rural households in Pingliang, Gansu Province, and 1501 rural households in Yuxi, Yunnan Province, China. We studied Earthquake-Resistant Construction Behaviors (E-RCB) by the logistic and the ordered logistic regression models. Results show that government housing subsidy promotes E-RCB of rural households; E-RCB was affected by ERHSPP, positively correlated with economic status and housing earthquake damage; E-RCB was negatively correlated with structure danger, house age, and earthquake experience; and housing earthquake damage, not earthquake experience, strikingly promoted E-RCB in rural China. The results could provide suggestions in communication risk strategies for the government. We suggest the local government should promote local acceptable disaster propaganda, provide hierarchical housing subsidies, pay attention to housing seismic supervision, publish earthquake-resistant housing design drawings, and conduct more earthquake-resistant technical training for rural craftsmen.