Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions

Effects of ambient air pollution from shipping on mortality: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Shipping contributes to air pollution causing adverse health effects. We conducted for the first time a systematic review on the health and economic impacts of ambient air pollution from shipping emissions.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search in PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO (Medline), and Scopus of all time up to December 2023. We then inter-compared semi-quantitatively the results of the included eligible studies.

RESULTS

We identified 23 eligible studies, 22 applying health impact assessment, and 1 using epidemiological methods. These studies used different methods for the evaluation of emissions, dispersion, and exposure, and for the exposure-mortality risk functions for exposure to shipping emissions for 1-2 years. The estimated excess global all-cause mortality from six studies ranged between 1 and 5 deaths per 100,000 person-years. However, the heterogeneity of the methods and critical gaps in the reporting seriously limited the synthesis of the evidence on health and economic effects of shipping emissions. Sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions in both dispersion and exposure modeling, as well as presentation of uncertainties is needed. Health impact assessment should present the results with all the main risk functions and population attributable risks, and the magnitude of the effect should be expressed in excess number per a given person-time or per population size. Economic effects should also cover work productivity, mental well-being, and cognitive functions.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that future studies should properly evaluate and report the uncertainty ranges and the confidence limits of the results. Rigorous studies are needed on multipollutant exposures, exposures from various source categories, and exposures attributed to various particulate matter measures. Studies should report the health impact measures in a format that facilitates straightforward inter-study comparisons. Further research should also specifically report the used grid spacings and resolutions and evaluate whether these are optimal for the task.

Health impact assessments of shipping and port-sourced air pollution on a global scale: A scoping literature review

BACKGROUND

Globalisation has led to international trade expand rapidly. Seaborne transport moves 80% of traded goods across the globe, producing around 3% of greenhouse gases and other hazardous pollutants, such as PM, NO_x and SO_x, known to be harmful to health.

METHODS

A scoping literature review was conducted reviewing peer-reviewed studies on health impact assessments (HIA) of global shipping and port-sourced air pollution. For review inclusion, studies had to (1) use a HIA methodology; (2) quantify the air pollution concentration attributable to at least one shipping or port activity scenario; (3) assess at least one health outcome (i.e. epidemiological measure or monetization); (4) quantify the attributable health burden of the respective scenario.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies were included, studying predominantly European Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions with health impacts for global or respective European populations. Also, Global, Asian, North American and Australian Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions were studied, with attributable health impacts for global or respective populations. The health outcome predominantly studied was mortality (all-cause, cause-specific, loss in life expectancy, years of life lost (YLLs)), but also morbidity (disease cases, hospital admissions, years lived with disability (YLDs)), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), restricted activity days and work loss days. The highest air pollution concentrations were identified along major shipping routes and ports, and the strongest health impacts occurred among respective riparian populations. Globally, ∼265,000 premature deaths were projected for 2020 (∼0.5% of global mortality) attributable to global shipping-sourced emissions. Emission control scenarios studied were predominantly sulphur fuel content caps and NO_x emission reduction scenarios, consisting of technological interventions, cleaner fuels or fuel switches, and were assessed as effective in reducing shipping-sourced emissions, and hence, health burdens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review positions maritime transport an important source of air pollution and health risk factor, which needs more research and policy attention and rigorous emission control efforts, as shipping-sourced emissions are projected to increase with increases in global trade and shipping volumes.

Assessing the costs and environmental benefits of IMO regulations of ship-originated SOx and NOx emissions in the Baltic Sea

To assess the value of the environmental benefits of the Sulphur Emission regulation (SECA) that came into force in 2015, changes in depositions of SOx and NOx from ship exhaust gas emissions were modelled and monetized for the Baltic Sea region for the years 2014 and 2016. During this period, the total deposition of SOx in the study area decreased by 7.3%. The decrease in ship-originated SOx deposition from 38 kt to 3.4 kt (by over 88%) was translated into a monetary value for the ecosystem impacts of nearly 130 million USD, according to the EcoValue08 model. This is less than the modelled health benefits, but it is not insignificant. For NOx, there was no decreasing trend. The exceedance of the critical loads of SOx and NOx was also estimated. The effect of Baltic shipping on the exceedance of critical loads of acidification after SECA is very small, but Baltic shipping still has a considerable effect on the exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication.

Effect of Operating Parameters on Oxidation Characteristics of Soot under the Synergistic Action of Soluble Organic Fractions and Ash

Diesel particulate filter is used to reduce particulate matter (PM) emission due to the stringent emission standards. The accumulated PM has been oxidized by the periodical regeneration method to avoid pressure buildup. The innovation of this study is to explore the oxidation performance of Printex-U (PU), which is mixed with ash and soluble organic fractions, under different operating conditions. Different aspects of operating parameters, such as the oxygen ratio in an O2/N2 atmosphere, total flow rate, initial PU mass, and heating rate, on PU oxidation properties have been critically discussed using a thermogravimetric analyzer. The oxygen ratio in the O2/N2 atmosphere is positively correlated with the oxidation characteristics of PU. The comprehensive oxidation index (S ) of PU under the 20% O2/80% N2 atmosphere increases by 184% compared with the 10% O2/90% N2 atmosphere. When the initial PU mass is 3 mg, the combustion stability coefficient (R w) and S reach the best values, which are 55.53 × 105 and 2.03 × 107 %2min-2 ° C-3, respectively. With the increase in the heating rate, the oxidation properties of PU become sensible and deflagration occurs easily, so that 10 °C/min heating rate is the best option. This study provides a theoretical basis for the optimization design of diesel particulates during the regeneration process.

Recent Advances in Studying Air Quality and Health Effects of Shipping Emissions

The increase of global commerce and tourism makes the shipping sector an important contributor of atmospheric particles and gaseous pollutants. These have impacts on both health and climate, especially in populated coastal areas. Maritime activities could be an important driver for economic and social development, however, they are also an environmental pressure. Several policies were implemented in the last decades, at local/regional or international levels, mainly focused on reducing the content of sulphur in marine fuels. The last international IMO-2020 regulation was enforced on 1 January 2020. This work reviews some recent studies on this topic delineating current knowledge of the impacts of maritime emissions on air quality and health and the future projections relative to the benefits of the implementation of the new IMO-2020 regulation. In addition, future perspectives for further mitigation strategies are discussed.

Health Impact of Air Pollution from Shipping in the Baltic Sea: Effects of Different Spatial Resolutions in Sweden

In 2015, stricter regulations to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions and particulate air pollution from shipping were implemented in the Baltic Sea. We investigated the effects on population exposure to particles <2.5 µm (PM_2.5) from shipping and estimated related morbidity and mortality in Sweden’s 21 counties at different spatial resolutions. We used a regional model to estimate exposure in Sweden and a city-scale model for Gothenburg. Effects of PM_2.5 exposure on total mortality, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were estimated using exposure–response functions from the literature and combining them into disability-adjusted life years (DALYS). PM_2.5 exposure from shipping in Gothenburg decreased by 7% (1.6 to 1.5 µg/m³) using the city-scale model, and 35% (0.5 to 0.3 µg/m³) using the regional model. Different population resolutions had no effects on population exposures. In the city-scale model, annual premature deaths due to shipping PM_2.5 dropped from 97 with the high-sulfur scenario to 90 in the low-sulfur scenario, and in the regional model from 32 to 21. In Sweden, DALYs lost due to PM_2.5 from Baltic Sea shipping decreased from approximately 5700 to 4200. In conclusion, sulfur emission restrictions for shipping had positive effects on health, but the model resolution affects estimations.

Industrial Air Pollution and Respiratory Health Status among Residents in an Industrial Area in Central Italy

The area of Civitavecchia (Lazio region, Central Italy) has been a reason of concern in the past because of environmental air contamination. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between air pollution from different sources and respiratory symptoms and lung function in the population. A sample of 1177 residents underwent medical examination and lung function tests. Information on individual characteristics, histories of exposure and medical history were collected through a validated questionnaire. Long-term exposure to industrial, harbour, biomass combustion emissions (PM₁₀) and urban traffic (NO_x) at residential address was assessed using a Lagrangian dispersion model. The associations between exposure and wheezing and dyspnea were assessed using logistic regression models, while modified Poisson regression models were used to evaluate cough with phlegm. Relationships between exposure and lung function were analysed using linear mixed-effects models and cross-correlation. PM10 emissions from the harbour were associated with lower lung function parameters (FEV1: β = –0.12, 95% CI –0.21 –0.03; p = 0.02; FEV1/FVC: β = –1.67, (–3.10 –0.23); p = 0.02. This association was observed also in healthy subjects, but not in females. We found, even if at low exposure level, an effect of environmental PM₁₀ exposure from harbour on lung function.

Evaluating the Impact of Air Pollution on China’s Inbound Tourism: A Gravity Model Approach

China’s inbound tourism grew very slowly in recent years. This study modelled China’s inbound tourism based on a gravity model with province-level inbound tourist arrivals data from 13 countries of origin between 2010 and 2016. It was found that air pollution in tourist destinations and origin regions both had significant negative impacts on China’s inbound tourism. On average, if the concentration of particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less (PM 2.5 ) in China and foreign countries increased by 1 μ g/m 3 , inbound tourist arrivals would decline by approximately 1.7% and 3.8%, respectively. The effect of pollution in destination regions is explained by the importance of clean air as a favored characteristic of tourist attractions. The effect of pollution in tourist origin countries is explained by more awareness of and concern about air pollution by potential tourists if they live in more polluted countries. Further analysis showed that the impact of air pollution in destination regions was larger for tourists coming from more polluted and Asian countries, and visiting less polluted and more popular destinations. This study has a clear policy implication: improving air quality can be considered as a straightforward and effective way to promote inbound tourism in China. If air quality in China can be substantially improved in the future, inbound tourist arrivals have the potential to rise by at least tens of millions of person-times.