Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China

Urban Road Accident Black Spot Identification and Classification Approach: A Novel Grey Verhuls–Empirical Bayesian Combination Method

The identification and classification of accident black spots on urban roads is a key element of road safety research. To solve the problems caused by the randomness of accident occurrences and the unclear classification of accident black spots by the traditional model, we propose a method that can quickly identify and classify accident black spots on urban roads: a combined grey Verhuls–Empirical Bayesian method. The grey Verhuls model is used to obtain the predicted/expected numbers of accidents at accident hazard locations, and the empirical Bayesian approach is used to derive two accident black spot discriminators, a safety improvement space and a safety index (SI), and to classify the black spots into two, three, four and five levels according to the range of the SI. Finally, we validate this combined method on examples. High-quality and high-accuracy data are obtained from the accident collection records of the Ningbo Jiangbei District from March to December 2020, accounting for 90.55% of the actual police incidents during this period. The results show that the combined grey Verhuls–Empirical Bayesian method can identify accident black spots quickly and accurately due to the consideration of accident information from the same types of accident locations. The accident black point classification results show that the five-level rating of accident black points is most reasonable. Our study provides a new idea for accident black spot identification and a feasible method for accident black spot risk level classification.

Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model

Understanding the spread of infectious diseases is an extremely essential step to preventing them. Thus, correct modeling and simulation approaches are critical for elucidating the transmission of infectious diseases and improving the control of epidemics. The primary objective of this study is to simulate the spread of communicable diseases in an urban rail transit station. Data were collected by a field investigation in the city of Ningbo, China. A SEIR-based model was developed to simulate the spread of infectious diseases in Tianyi station, considering four groups of passengers (susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered) and a 14-day incubation period. Based on the historical data of infectious diseases, the parameters of the SEIR infectious disease model were clarified, and a sensitivity analysis of the parameters was also performed. The results showed that the contact rate (CR), infectivity (I), and average illness duration (AID) were positively correlated with the number of infections. It was also found that the length of the average incubation time (AIT) was positively correlated with the number of exposed individuals and negatively correlated with the number of infectors. These simulation results provide support for the validity and reliability of using the SEIR model in studies of the spread of epidemics and facilitate the development of effective measures to prevent and control an epidemic.

Causation Analysis of Hazardous Material Road Transportation Accidents Based on the Ordered Logit Regression Model

Understanding the influence factors and related causation of hazardous materials can improve hazardous materials drivers' safety awareness and help traffic professionals to develop effective countermeasures. This study investigates the statistical distribution characteristics, such as types of hazardous materials transportation accidents, driver properties, vehicle properties, environmental properties, road properties. In total, 343 data regarding hazardous materials accidents were collected from the chemical accident information network of China. An ordered logit regression (OLR) model is proposed to account for the unobserved heterogeneity across observations. Four independent variables, such as hazardous materials drivers' properties, vehicle properties, environmental properties, and road properties are employed based on the OLR model, an ordered multinomial logistic regression (MLR) is estimated the OLR model parameters. Both parameter estimates and odds ratio (OR) are employed to interpret the impact of influence factors on the severity of hazardous materials accidents. The model estimation results show that 10 factors such as violations, unsafe driving behaviors, vehicle faults, and so on are closely related to accidents severity of hazardous materials transportation. Furthermore, three enforcement countermeasures are proposed to prevent accidents when transporting hazardous materials.

Design of a Network Optimization Platform for the Multivehicle Transportation of Hazardous Materials

With economic development, the volume of hazardous materials is increasing, and the potential risks to human beings and the natural environment are expanding. Road transportation has become the main mode of transportation for hazardous materials. Because of the specific characteristics of hazardous materials, if an accident occurs in the transportation process, it often causes mass casualties, serious property and socioeconomic damage, and damage to the ecological environment. Hence, transportation is an important part of the life cycle of hazardous materials. This paper designs an optimization platform for multidestination, multiterminal, and multivehicle networks that transport hazardous materials. The logistics module in TransCAD software is used to construct this platform. By identifying the effective transportation routes considering the transportation risk, sensitive target population, and transportation time of each road section, the entropy method can be used to fuse and obtain the comprehensive impedance value of each road section. Finally, the optimal transportation network of hazardous materials was obtained by the transportation network optimization algorithm in TransCAD. The platform can display the optimal transport program with data windows, text, and maps. The research results provide a reference for relevant departments to scientifically manage the transport of hazardous materials.

Simulation of pedestrian evacuation route choice using social force model in large-scale public space: Comparison of five evacuation strategies

The primary objective of this study is to compare pedestrian evacuation strategies in the large-scale public space (LPS) using microscopic model. Data were collected by video recording from Tian-yi square for 36 hours in city of Ningbo, China. A pedestrian evacuation simulation model was developed based on the social force model (SFM). The simulation model parameters, such as reaction time, elasticity coefficient, sliding coefficient, et al, were calibrated using the real data extracted from the video. Five evacuation strategies, strategy 1 (S1) to strategy 5 (S5) involving distance, density and capacity factors were simulated and compared by indicators of evacuation time and channel utilization rate, as well as the evacuation efficiency. The simulation model parameters calibration results showed that a) the pedestrians walking speed is 1.0 ~ 1.5m/s; b) the pedestrians walking diameter is 0.3 ~ 0.4m; c) the frequency of pedestrian arrival and departure followed multi-normal distribution. The simulation results showed that, (a) in terms of total evacuation time, the performance of S4 and S5 which considering the capacity and density factors were best in all evacuation scenarios, the performance of S3 which only considering the density factor was the worst, relatively, and S1 and S2 which considering the distance factor were in the middle. (b) the utilization rate of channels under S5 strategy was better than other strategies, which performs best in the balance of evacuation. S3 strategy was the worst, and S1, S2 and S4 were in the middle. (c) in terms of the evacuation efficiency, when the number of evacuees is within 2, 500 peds, the S1 and S2 strategy which considering the distance factor have best evacuation efficiency than other strategies. And when the number of evacuees is above 2, 500 peds, the S4 and S5 strategy which considering the capacity factor are better than others.

Congestion Evaluation of Pedestrians in Metro Stations Based on Normal-Cloud Theory

This study aims at evaluating the congestion level of pedestrians in metro stations. Twelve hours (4 h × three facilities) of video data were collected in the channel, stairway, and platform in a metro station in the city of Ningbo, China. The indicator of GPC (grade of pedestrian crowd) was proposed to quantify the congestion level of pedestrians. Four levels of congestion (level I, level II, level III, and level IV) were determined based on the GPC. A normal-cloud (NC) model was proposed and calibrated for the evaluation of three facilities including channel, stairway, and platform. The evaluation results showed that the GPC of L1-L2 and L2-L1 in channel are level II and level I, respectively. The GPC of upward and downward of stairway are level III and level I. The GPC of platform is level IV. Crowd management countermeasures were proposed for the management of pedestrians in metro station.