Dairy Production under Climatic Risks: Perception, Perceived Impacts and Adaptations in Punjab, Pakistan

Influence of access to extension services on milk productivity among smallholder dairy farmers in Njoro Sub-County, Nakuru County, Kenya

Inaccessibility to extension services by smallholder farmers remains one of the impediments to achieving high agricultural productivity and food security. Extension services play a critical role in information dissemination that can avert food insecurity and increase smallholder dairy farmers' incomes. However, access to extension services remains a significant challenge in developing countries. This study investigated the influence of access to extension services on milk productivity among smallholder dairy farmers in Njoro Sub-County, Nakuru County, Kenya. The study's target and accessible population was 17,000 smallholder dairy farmers. The study used simple random and proportionate sampling techniques to select study farmers. Nassiuma's formula generated a sample of 120 smallholder dairy farmers. The hypothesis underwent testing using simple linear regression. The regression results found a statistically significant influence between access to extension services and milk productivity at a 5% significance level (p < 0.05). Findings show that most smallholder dairy farmers accessed extension services through television, radio, neighbours, and friends. In contrast, the top animal husbandry practices that most farmers were interested in were parasite and disease control, breed selection, and feed preparation. The Government of Kenya mainly provided vaccination services, while the other veterinary services, including deworming, pregnancy and disease diagnosis, breed selection, and treatment, were dominated by private entities. The Government of Kenya should improve smallholder dairy farmers' access to extension services. The study recommends channeling agricultural information in all possible vernacular languages and Kiswahili, the national language, via television and radio platforms to reach all smallholder dairy cow farmers. Additionally, more emphasis should be on the importance of appropriate milking techniques and record-keeping among smallholder dairy farmers to help monitor their animals' health, feeding, breeding, and milk productivity.

Pathway analysis of food security by employing climate change, water, and agriculture nexus in Pakistan: partial least square structural equation modeling

Increasing population and augmented demand for food have put burden on water resources, crops, and livestock for future sustainability. Pakistan is facing difficulties of water shortage, low crops and livestock productivity, meagre livelihood, and intensive food insecurity. Hence, this study was conducted in Pakistan to explore the nexus of climate change, irrigation water, agriculture, rural livelihoods, and food security. The study is based on primary data of 1080 farmers gathered from 12 districts of the rice-wheat and cotton-wheat cropping systems. A partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to compute the nexus. Findings of path analysis indicated that climate change had a significant negative impact on irrigation water, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security in both cropping systems. There was positive relationship between surface water and crops. In addition, groundwater and crops were also positively and significantly correlated. The impact of crop was positive and significant on rural livelihood and food security. Furthermore, rural livelihood and food security were positively and significantly influenced by livestock. Moreover, there was positive relationship between rural livelihood and food security. The cotton-wheat cropping system was more affected by climatic and natural hazards than rice-wheat cropping system. Interconnectivity among nexus components and their contribution to rural livelihood and food security indicate that government, policymakers, and other concerned stakeholders should effectively improve food security policies under climatic and natural hazards. Moreover, it helps in examining adverse impacts of hazards induced by climate change on nexus components, leading to the designing and adoption of sustainable climate change policies. The study's originality lies in its ability to provide a inclusive and integrated pathway of the interconnections and interdependencies among these variables, identifying key drivers of food insecurity in Pakistan. Moreover, outcome of the study has policy implications for developing sustainable policies and strategies to improve sustainable food security in the country.

Climate change and livestock herders wellbeing in Pakistan: Does nexus of risk perception, adaptation and their drivers matter?

Rural people, particularly in developing nations, rely on livestock as a key source of income. In Pakistan, rural people depend profoundly on buffalo, cows, sheep, and goats to earn their livelihood. The systems of agricultural production are at risk because of the negative effects of climate change. It badly affects production and quality of milk and meat, animal health, productivity, breeding, feed, and rangelands of livestock production. Climate change risks assessment and adaptation are required to minimize losses from these effects, which are not just technical but also socioeconomically significant. Hence, based on data collected from 1080 livestock herders using a multistage sampling technique in Punjab, Pakistan this study aims to assess perceived impact of climate change on livestock production and to assess coping strategies. In addition, determinants of adaptation strategies and their effects on livestock production was also estimated. Binary Logistic Regression was used to identify the drivers of adaptation strategies. In addition, Multi Group Analysis (MGA) in Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) was applied to compare adapter and non-adapter of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings indicated that there are spread of various diseases to livestock due to adverse effects of climatic variability. There was reduction in the availability of the livestock's feed. Moreover, competition of water and land resources of livestock was also increasing. Low production efficiency resulted in decline of milk yield and meat production. Likewise, mortality of livestock, increased in still births, reduction in reproductive performance, decline in animal fertility, longevity, and general fitness, decreased birthing rates, rises in age at foremost calving in beef cattle was also prevailing. There were different adaptation policies used by farmers to handle with climate change and these were influenced by several demographic, socioeconomic, and agronomic aspects. Findings indicated that nexus of risk perception, adaptation plans and their determinants are beneficial to reduce the consequences of climatic variability and it improve the wellbeing of the herders. Risk management system may be created to protect livestock against losses caused by extreme weather events by providing awareness regarding influence of climate change on livestock. Easy and cheaper credit should be provided to the farmers to manage with the vulnerabilities of climate change.

Modelling wellbeing of farmers by using nexus of climate change risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their drivers on irrigation water in Pakistan

This study aimed to determine the farmers' perceived impact of climate change on irrigation water and the adaptation measure adopted to mitigate its adverse effects. A binary logistic regression model was used to identified factors affecting the selection of adaptation measures. Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was employed to compute the benefits of adaptation strategies. The study was conducted in two major cropping systems, i.e., the Cotton Wheat Cropping System (CWCS) and Rice Wheat Cropping System (RWCS) of Punjab, Pakistan, using primary data of 1080 farmers collected through a multistage sampling technique. Due to climate change there was deterioration in surface water and groundwater quality in CWCS than in RWCS. The farmer uses different adaptation strategies like water harvesting, crop diversification, increasing use of irrigation, laser land leveling to save water, making ridges, building a water harvesting scheme, changing irrigation time, high-efficiency irrigation system and water-saving technologies. Adaptation strategies used by farmer were affected by different socioeconomic, demographic and agronomic factors. Results of the binary logistic regression showed that age, farming experience, education, household size, farm size, tenancy status of owner, access to farm credit, information on weather forecasting, soil quality, tube well ownership, remittances, off-farm income, agricultural extension services provided for irrigation water, and information on climatic and natural hazards played a significant role in the selection of adaptation strategies for irrigation water. Results of PLS-SEM showed that adaptation strategies mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on irrigation water. Farmers' awareness regarding the impact of climatic variability on irrigation water should be enhanced. Availability of credit to farmers should be improved on easy terms to facilitate the adoption of interventions for better irrigation water management. It is high time for policymakers to design effective, affordable, and workable policies to mitigate climate change vulnerabilities against irrigation water to improve the wellbeing of the farmers.

Water productivity of milk produced in three different dairy production systems in Southern Brazil

Water is a crucial resource to produce dairy milk and studies are required to identify opportunities for improvements in water management. This study evaluates the water productivity of milk (WPMilk) produced on 67 farms located in southern Brazil and the influence of dairy cattle production systems (pasture-based, 57 farms; semi-confined, 7 farms; confinement, 3 farms) on water productivity. Indirect and direct water flows were taken into account and the dairy milk was the output. Pasture yield was estimated based on a weighted average. Indirect water represented >98 % of water consumption for milk production on farms assessed. In the pasture-based system, the WPMilk ranged from 0.27 to 1.46 kg FPCM (Fat Protein Corrected Milk) m^-3 of water; in the semi-confined system it ranged from 0.59 to 1.1 kg FPCM m^-3; in the confined system, it ranged from 0.89 to 1.09 kg FPCM m^-3. Results show that 20 farms in the pasture-based system presented higher WPMilk than the maximum WPMilk of farms in the semi-confined system. Comparing outcomes of farms in the confined system with pasture-based system, similar results were observed with higher WPMilk on 22 farms in the pasture-based system. Results indicate that, regardless of the type of production system, water productivity is influenced by the dairy productivity indicators of the farm, such as milk yield and feed components. The large variability in the WPMilk was expected and reflects the inherent attributes and conditions affecting this indicator, which underlines the importance of assessing it on a farm scale. Consequently, achieving high dairy productivity indicators should be encouraged in the pasture-based system due to the environmental, economic and social advantages for the farmer. Results advance the knowledge about water flows and WPMilk in different dairy cattle production systems besides defining the first benchmarks for WPMilk produced on farms in Brazil.

Nexus between Climate-Smart Livestock Production Practices and Farmers' Nutritional Security in Pakistan: Exploring Level, Linkages, and Determinants

Livestock plays a vital role in humans’ food and nutrition security under rapidly changing climatic scenarios. This study investigates the nature and factors affecting livestock farmers’ choices of climate-smart livestock practices by using a multivariate probit model and then estimates the average effect of these adopted strategies on per capita daily dietary (calorie, protein, and calcium) intake among livestock herders. For this purpose, data were collected from 196 livestock farmers residing in the Punjab province of Pakistan, selected through multistage purposive and random sampling. The Simpson diversity index results revealed that farmers used diversified food in their daily diet. The results also showed that farmers consumed more protein-rich food items as compared to calorie and calcium-rich food items in their daily diet. Moreover, the average per capita calorie intake of livestock farmers was 2413.19 kcal/day. Livestock farmers adopting a higher number of climate-smart livestock practices consumed more daily per capita calories, protein, and calcium compared to those who adopted a lower number of climate-smart livestock practices on livestock farms. Moreover, climate-smart livestock practices produced more and better nutritional outcomes in combination with each other than in isolation. Livestock training was found to be positively associated with the adoption of more climate-smart practices. Therefore, livestock training is necessary to expedite the adoption of climate-smart practices and to improve the nutritional security of the farmers.

Linking climate change adaptation practices with farm technical efficiency and fertilizer use: a study of wheat-maize mix cropping zone of Punjab province, Pakistan

Climate change is a serious threat to global agriculture and the farming community is well aware of this challenge. This is the first empirical study that looks beyond the traditional studies only limited to the adoption of climate change measures by estimating the impact of adopted practices on technical efficiency and computing the actual level of fertilizer at the farm level. For this purpose, face-to-face interviews were conducted for data collection with 196 farmers selected through multiple stage simple random sampling in the wheat-maize mix cropping zone of Punjab province. The results depicted that changing fertilizer was the most commonly adopted strategy (76%) to negate the effects of climate changes on crop production. Stochastic frontier analysis results revealed that the adoption of diversification practices, soil and water conservation practices, and modern input use strategies were influential factors explaining the technical efficiency differential among different farmers. The average technical efficiency score was 0.71 in the locality implying that farmers have an opportunity to increase their farm efficiency by 29% with the present level of inputs. Moreover, adopters of modern input practices with a high index were 27% more efficient than those with a low adaptation index of these climate countering measures. The empirical results also revealed the excessive use of nitrogen fertilizer to counter the climate change impacts at the agricultural farms. This result has important policy implications for government agencies that it is not enough just to guide and motivate the farmers to adopt certain strategies to negate the effect of climate change. They should also be informed about the exact usage level of those suggested measures.

Do risk perceptions and constraints influence the adoption of climate change practices among small livestock herders in Punjab, Pakistan?

Climate change is severely damaging the agricultural system of many food producing regions worldwide. Small/subsistent livestock herders are the most vulnerable and less resilient group towards climatic disasters within South Asian region including Pakistan. The adoption of climate-smart practices would be beneficial for small livestock herders because of its potential to ensure food security, improve income, and sustain development simultaneously. The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors influencing small livestock herders' adaptation decisions towards changing climate by conducting field-based research. We intend to understand how institutional factors, risk perceptions, adaptations, and personal constraints affect the adaptation decisions related to climate change mitigation and choice of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a primary data set of 405 small livestock herders from Punjab, Pakistan was used. The regression results of empirical models reveal the probability of adopting specific climate change strategies. The study results showed that zero adaptation (non-adoption) to climate change is higher when there is low literacy rate, less experience, nuclear family system, lack of institutional services, and low level of risk perception about climate change. The marginal outcome showed that the livestock herders with positive risk perception and access to the institutional services do participate more frequently in a higher number of adaptations options for economic and ecological benefits. Therefore, it is suggested that government and other development actors should strengthen institutions for trust building among local community groups and to reduce individuals' risks. Moreover, effective insurance schemes could facilitate small livestock herders to keep less but more productive livestock. The study recommends building viable and potential weather index insurance schemes which will result meaningful marginal scale benefits for smallholders. Finally, the results of major constraints suggest that it is necessary to provide awareness of climatic vulnerabilities, timely information delivery, and adequate financial facilities to offset resource constraints of livestock herders in order to adopt sustainable strategies at their farms.

A Theoretical Framework to Assess the Impact of Flooding on Dairy Cattle Farms: Identification of Direct Damage from an Animal Welfare Perspective

For the economic sectors, the need to address the challenges posed by natural disasters due to climate change is an outstanding issue. To date, according to the European Commission (2019), there is still a gap in the estimation of the costs of flood in all European countries and the direct impact that these floods have on agricultural activities. More specifically, the damage to livestock has been minimally studied. The aim of this study is is therefore to identify the flood damage that affects dairy cattle farms, focusing on the damage to herds caused by a flood event; in fact, poor welfare conditions of dairy cattle directly affect production and thus farm revenue. To accomplish the aim of this study, a framework was first developed to identify possible damage types. Then, scientific literature focusing on the identification of flood damage to dairy herds was reviewed, and to quantify this damage to herds, literature sources providing information on the magnitude of variation in the identified damage types were used. Thus, our results provide relevant information on the variables that should be taken into account when assessing of the direct damage affecting the overall welfare of a dairy herd after a flood event. This evidence could then contribute to the development of tools aimed at assessing damage to dairy cattle on flood-affected farms.

Does Chinese FDI, Climate Change, and CO2 Emissions Stimulate Agricultural Productivity? An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Pakistan’s agricultural sector growth is dwindling from the last several years due to insufficient foreign direct investment (FDI) and a drastic climate change-induced raise in temperature, which are severely affecting agricultural production. The FDI has paramount importance for the economy of developing countries as well as the improvement of agricultural production. Based on the time series data from 1984 to 2017, this paper aims to highlight the present situation of the agriculture sector of Pakistan and empirically analyze the short-run and long-run impact of Chinese foreign direct investment (CFDI), climate change, and CO2 emissions on agricultural productivity and causality among the variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) model and Granger Causality test were employed to find out the long-run, short-run, and causal relationships among the variables of interest. Furthermore, we have employed the Error Correction Model (ECM) to know the convergence of the equilibrium path. The bound test results verified the existence of a long-run association, and the empirical findings confirmed that Chinese FDI has a significant and positive impact, while climate change and CO2 emissions has negative impact on the agricultural growth of Pakistan both in the short-run and long-run. Granger Causality test results revealed that variables of interest exhibit bi-directional and uni-directional causality. The sector-wise flow of FDI reveals that the agriculture sector of Pakistan has comparatively received a less amount of FDI than other sectors of the economy. Based on the findings, it was suggested to the Government of Pakistan and policymakers to induce more FDI in the agriculture sector. Such policies would be helpful for the progress of the agriculture sector as well as for the economic growth of Pakistan.

Synergies and Determinants of Sustainable Intensification Practices in Pakistani Agriculture

Sustainable intensification practices (SIPs) involve a process to produce high yields for existing land without affecting the environment. The significance and relevance of SIPs in a Pakistani context demands an investigation. Hence, this study takes the initiative to investigate the determinants regarding the adoption of these practices. Based on the evidence, we selected five SIPs, namely, improved seeds, organic manure, crop rotation, intercropping, and low tillage. Furthermore, this study analyzes the adoption of SIPs with randomly collected data from 612 farmers through multistage sampling. A multivariate probit model (MVP) is employed to analyze the mutually dependent adoption decisions and identify the factors associated with them. The results revealed that education, the area under cultivation, access to information, extension access, social participation, rainfall variability, and temperature increase significantly predict the adoption of SIPs. The adoption of organic manure and crop rotation was highest between all the ecological zones, whereas low tillage was the least adopted practice. Adoption intensity in mixed cropping zones was slightly higher than the other ecological zones. Moreover, the findings also reveal the important synergies amid natural resource management and input-based SIPs. Hence, the study highlights the perseverance and importance of social groups and recommends the government to formulate comprehensive policies to facilitate institutional access and elevate the adoption level amongst the farming community.